Australian Premier (1717.HK): Stalled in the first half of the year and is expected to gradually recover in the second half

華西證券 · Sep 2, 2022 00:00 · Researches

事件概述

澳优上半年实现收入36.3亿元，同比+15.1%：归母净利润2.2亿元，同比-62.9%.

分析判断：

1、上半年奶粉行业压力较大。根据AC尼尔森数据，1H2行业国内零售额同比-4%，去年行业零售额同比+2.2%。伴随市场萎缩的是内部激烈的竞争，由于配方注册制新国标正式实施，行业又一轮供给端出清。尽管头部国产品牌市场份颜依然稳因甚至上升，但依然面临雏护价盘和保持渠道库存健康的压力，例如飞鹤、澳优上半年均因公司主动去库存出现上半年收入同比下降。

2、澳优自家品牌羊奶粉相对稳定。上半年澳优自家品牌佳贝艾特羊奶粉收入16.7亿元，同比-1.5%，表现比牛奶粉业务稳定。羊奶粉在国内奶粉市场仍然是一个小众、消费升级品类，近两年大品牌有延仲产品线进入该市场，上半年行业承压，推新品将愈加困难，这有利于佳贝艾特市场份颜提升。上半年公司主动控制库存，基于2020下半年去库存的经验和内码等技术手段的应用，上半年收入降幅较小。

3、澳优牛奶粉明显承压。上半年澳优牛奶粉业务收入12.8亿元，同比-37.6%。牛奶粉上半年面临的竞争更为激烈，其中自海普诺凯1897品牌去年底开始主动降库存、调整销售政策，拖景上半年牛奶粉业务销售表现。海普诺凯1897仍处于成长阶段，对外部环境变化相对敏感。

4、上半年公司归母净利率6.1%，同比-7.8ct5。其中毛利率、销售费用率、管理费用率分别同比-3/+4.1/+2.7pcts。大包粉等原材料价格上涨，销售政策的调整，行业竞争加刷下费用效率的下降，以及研发等投入增加使上半年利润率下滑幅度较大。我们认为下半年业务随着主动收缩调整完成，以及外部环境的边际改善，公司利润率将有所回升。

投资建议

上半年公司业绩承压主要因奶粉行业竞争加刷以及公司为维护市场健康度主动调整。在上半年调整基本到位基础上，外部环境边际改善的情况下，下半年有望重回增长。结合上半年业绩下调2022-24年收入预测97/107/119亿元至87/102/115亿元，下调EPS预测0.67/0.78/0.9元至0.39/0.48/0.6元。2022/9/2收盘价HKD6.09元对应P/E分别为14/11/9倍（港币克人民币汇率0.88），由买入评级调整为增持评级。

风险提示

出生人口下降，行业竞争加剧，食品安全风险。

Overview of events

Australian excellent achieved income of 3.63 billion yuan in the first half of the year, + 15.1% year-on-year: home net profit of 220 million yuan,-62.9%.

Analysis and judgment:

1. There is a great pressure on the milk powder industry in the first half of the year. According to AC Nielsen, domestic retail sales in the 1H2 industry were-4 per cent year-on-year, compared with 2.2 per cent last year. With the shrinking market is the fierce internal competition, due to the formal implementation of the new national standard of the formula registration system, the industry another round of supply-side clearance. Although the market share of domestic brands in the head is still stable or even rising, it is still under pressure to protect the price plate and keep the channel inventory healthy. For example, Feihe and ao you both experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue in the first half of the year as a result of the company's initiative to remove inventory.

2. Aoyou's own brand goat milk powder is relatively stable. In the first half of the year, Aoyou's own brand Jiabei sheep milk powder earned 1.67 billion yuan,-1.5% compared with the same period last year, and its performance was more stable than that of milk powder. Sheep milk powder in the domestic milk powder market is still a minority, consumer upgrading category, in the past two years, big brands Yanzhong product line into the market, the first half of the industry under pressure, the promotion of new products will be more difficult, which is conducive to the promotion of the market. The company took the initiative to control inventory in the first half of the year. Based on the experience of inventory removal in the second half of 2020 and the application of internal codes and other technical means, the revenue decreased slightly in the first half of the year.

3. Aoyou milk powder is obviously under pressure. In the first half of the year, the business income of Australian Youniu milk powder was 1.28 billion yuan,-37.6% compared with the same period last year. Milk powder faces more fierce competition in the first half of the year, in which the Hipnokai 1897 brand began to actively reduce inventory and adjust sales policies at the end of last year, dragging down the sales performance of milk powder business in the first half of the year. Hipnokai 1897 is still in the growth stage and is relatively sensitive to changes in the external environment.

4. In the first half of the year, the company's return net interest rate is 6.1%, compared with the same period last year-7.8ct5. Among them, gross profit margin, sales expense rate and management expense rate are respectively year-on-year-3/+4.1/+2.7pcts. The rise in the price of raw materials such as large packages of flour, the adjustment of sales policies, the decline in cost efficiency under the addition of industry competition, and the increase in investment in research and development led to a large decline in profit margins in the first half of the year. We believe that the company's profit margin will pick up in the second half of the year with the completion of the proactive contraction adjustment and the marginal improvement of the external environment.

Investment suggestion

The pressure on the company's performance in the first half of the year is mainly due to the competition in the milk powder industry and the active adjustment of the company to maintain the health of the market. On the basis of the basic adjustment in the first half of the year and the marginal improvement of the external environment, it is expected to return to growth in the second half of the year. Combined with the first half of the year, the income forecast for 2022-24 is reduced by 107 / 11.9 billion yuan to 107 / 11.5 billion yuan, and the EPS forecast is reduced from 0.67 to 0.780.9 yuan to 0.39, 0.48 and 0.6 yuan respectively. On 2022-9-2, the closing price of HKD6.09 yuan was adjusted to the overweight rating from buy rating to 14-11-9 times that of Pamp E (HKD g RMB exchange rate 0.88).

Risk hint

There is a decline in the number of births, increased competition in the industry, and food safety risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

澳优(1717.HK)：上半年失速 下半年有望逐步恢复

Australian Premier (1717.HK): Stalled in the first half of the year and is expected to gradually recover in the second half

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

澳优(1717.HK)：上半年失速下半年有望逐步恢复