公司上半年收入与利润略逊预期，但收入在疫情下仍保持双位数增长公司2022 年上半年收入同比增长15.3%至22.4 亿元人民币（下同），股东净亏损同比减少5.3%至9.5 亿元。公司主要产品为肿瘤药，上半年上海、北京等一线城市相继出现疫情，导致很多患者无法到这些城市就医，而且公司生产基地所在的苏州等地的医院营运也受影响，导致收入略逊预期但仍保持双位数增长，近两年来新上市的生物类似药收入劲增。由于毛利率相对较低的生物类似药收入占比增加等原因，公司上半年毛利率从去年同期的88.8%下降至78.9%，导致股东净亏损略超预期。我们认为生物类似药的收入增长有利于解决公司以往产品单一的问题。公司2020 年以前收入以PD-1 药物达伯舒为主，但目前已有七款商业化产品，产品管线日益丰富有利长远发展。
公司预计2022-23 年将有多项临床试验及上市审批取得进展公司预计2022-23 年公司将有多项市场关注的上市审批及临床试验取得进展，我们认为如能兑现将为股价提供支撑，具体包括：1）新药上市：非小细胞肺癌药物赛普替尼可能获批；2）关键性临床进展：预计IBI-362（肥胖症及二型糖尿病药物）、IBI-351（肿瘤药）、IBI-112（银屑病药物）将进入关键性2/3 期临床试验；3）临床试验关键数据读出：预计将公布IBI-939（用于非小细胞肺癌）初步数据、IBI-322（用于霍奇金淋巴瘤）更新数据、IBI-326（用于CAR-T 疗法）更新数据、IBI-310（用于宫颈癌）更新数据、IBI-302（用于改善视力与视网膜水肿）2 期临床数据。
赛诺菲溢价注资彰显公司强大的研发与融资能力公司早前公告与全球著名的医药行业巨头赛诺菲（SNY US）达成战略合作，内容包括：
1）产品授权协议：合作开展肿瘤药SAR408701 与SAR444245 在中国的临床开发及商业化；2）溢价注资：赛诺菲以42.42 港元/股的价格认购3 亿欧元信达生物股份，认购价较协议前30 个交易日平均收市价溢价20%。赛诺菲的溢价入股及与公司合作开发产品彰显公司强大的研发实力与融资能力。
目标价上调至41.40 港元，给予“增持”评级
由于2022 年上半年收入略逊预期，我们将2022 年收入预测下调5.0%，但是我们认为疫情舒缓后肿瘤药销售将回暖，因此不调整2023-24E 收入预测。由于上半年毛利率略逊预期，我们将2022-24 年股东净亏损预测分别上调27.9%、27.8%、188.7%。然而对于快速扩张的初创期高科技企业，市场相对更加关注收入表现与研发实力。公司上半年在制药行业经营环境不佳的情况下收入保持稳健增长。赛诺菲溢价注资为超预期事件，我们将DCF 模型中的WACC 假设从8.9%降低至8.3%，目标价从37.50 港元上调至41.40 港元。
由于公司股价近期回升，评级从“买入”调整为“增持”。
风险提示：（一）新冠疫情反复导致公司生产受影响；（二）新药上市后销售情况差于预期；（三）新药研发进度慢于预期。
The company's revenue and profit in the first half of the year were slightly lower than expected, but the revenue maintained double-digit growth under the epidemic. The company's income in the first half of 2022 increased by 15.3% year-on-year to 2.24 billion yuan (the same below), while the net loss of shareholders decreased by 5.3% to 950 million yuan. The company's main products are tumor drugs. In the first half of the year, outbreaks occurred in Shanghai, Beijing and other first-tier cities one after another, resulting in many patients unable to seek medical treatment in these cities, and the operation of hospitals in Suzhou and other places where the company's production base is located was also affected. as a result, income is slightly lower than expected but still maintains double-digit growth, and revenue from newly listed biological similar drugs has increased sharply in the past two years. Due to the increase in the proportion of revenue from biological similar drugs with relatively low gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin fell to 78.9% in the first half of the year from 88.8% in the same period last year, resulting in a slightly higher-than-expected net loss by shareholders. We believe that the increase in revenue from bioanalogues will help to solve the company's previous problem of single products. The company's income before 2020 is mainly PD-1 drug Dabeshu, but at present there are seven commercial products, and the product pipeline is increasingly rich and conducive to long-term development.
The company expects a number of clinical trials and listing approvals to make progress in 2022-23. The company expects a number of market-focused listing approvals and clinical trials to make progress in 2022-23. We believe that if it can be realized, it will provide support for the stock price. Details include: 1) New drug listing: non-small cell lung cancer drug Zeptini may be approved 2) key clinical progress: it is expected that IBI-362 (drugs for obesity and type 2 diabetes), IBI-351 (drugs for oncology) and IBI-112 (drugs for psoriasis) will enter the critical Phase 2 clinical trials. 3) key data readout in clinical trials: preliminary data for IBI-939 (for non-small cell lung cancer), updated data for IBI-322 (for Hodgkin's lymphoma), updated data for IBI-326 (for CAR-T therapy), updated data for IBI-310 (for cervical cancer), and phase 2 clinical data for IBI-302 (for improving vision and retinal edema) are expected to be released.
Sanofi premium capital injection demonstrates the company's strong R & D and financing capabilities. The company announced earlier that it had reached a strategic cooperation with the world-renowned pharmaceutical giant SNY US, including:
1) Product licensing agreement: cooperation in the clinical development and commercialization of oncology drugs SAR408701 and SAR444245 in China; 2) Premium capital injection: Sanofi subscribed for 300 million euros of INNOVENT BIO shares at a price of HK $42.42 per share, at a premium of 20% over the average closing price of the 30 trading days before the agreement. Sanofi's premium stake and cooperation with the company to develop products demonstrate the company's strong R & D strength and financing ability.
The target price was raised to HK $41.40, with a "overweight" rating.
Due to the slightly lower revenue forecast in the first half of 2022, we have lowered our revenue forecast by 5.0% in 2022, but we believe that cancer drug sales will pick up after the epidemic has eased, so we will not adjust the 2023-24e revenue forecast. Due to the slightly lower gross profit margin in the first half of the year, we raised our shareholder net loss forecast for 2022-24 by 27.9%, 27.8% and 188.7%, respectively. However, for the rapidly expanding start-up high-tech enterprises, the market pays more attention to income performance and R & D strength. The company maintained steady revenue growth in the first half of the year in the face of a poor operating environment in the pharmaceutical industry. Sanofi premium capital injection is a higher-than-expected event, we reduced the WACC assumption in the DCF model from 8.9% to 8.3%, and raised the target price from HK $37.50 to HK $41.40.
Due to the recent rebound in the company's share price, the rating was adjusted from "buy" to "overweight".
Risk tips: (1) COVID-19 's epidemic repeatedly affected the company's production; (2) the sales of new drugs on the market were worse than expected; and (3) the progress of new drug research and development was slower than expected.
