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石药集团(1093.HK)中报点评:1H22业绩亮眼 疫苗新品进展喜人

Ciyao Group (1093.HK) Interim Report Commentary: 1H22's impressive performance and progress in new vaccine products is impressive

華泰證券 ·  Aug 26, 2022 14:51  · Researches

1H22 deducts outstanding performance; maintains "buy" rating

Stone Pharmaceutical announced on August 24 that 1H22 achieved an income of 15.6 billion yuan (+ 12.9%yoy), a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan (down 3.1% from a year earlier), and a net profit of 3.07 billion yuan (+ 14.9%yoy) after deducting changes in the fair value of financial assets, mainly due to the stabilization of the preparation sector and the strong growth of the API sector. Looking forward to 2022, considering the steady growth of proprietary medicine and the volume of special preparations and Becton Dickinson & Co's new products, we expect Stone Pharmaceuticals to maintain a net profit growth of about 10% in 22 years, and forecast diluted EPS 0.52 pounds 0.57 pounds 0.63 yuan from 2022 to 2024.

We give it 22-year PE19x times (comparable company Wind consensus forecast average 18 times, taking into account the company's leading position, potential mRNA approval potential and subsequent Becton Dickinson & Co increment, a 5% valuation premium), with a target price of HK $11.49, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Enpip sales continue to stabilize, API growth rate is bright

Enbip achieved revenue growth of more than 7% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and is optimistic that this trend will continue in the second half of the year, mainly due to:

1) the duration of the use of the two dosage forms has increased; 2) with the continuous expansion of the OTC/ Internet market, the grass-roots level covers a wide range.

In the follow-up, we are still optimistic about the expansion of Empip indications (such as peripheral neuropathy / vascular dementia caused by chemotherapy) to prolong the life cycle of the product. In addition, Mingfule is expected to cooperate with NBP, the excellent data of cerebral infarction indication phase III has been reported, is expected to be approved in 23 years, and may continue to speed up after entering health insurance. 1H22 in the API sector continues its high growth trend, mainly due to strong VC revenue (yoy + 29.4%), driven by rising prices of antibiotics and caffeine (income growth rate is + 14% / over 40% respectively), and is optimistic about bright profit growth during the year.

Tumor line: the epidemic situation is a drag on 1H22 sales. It is optimistic that the follow-up new products will help the company's tumor line to be affected by the Q2 Shanghai epidemic. The income growth rate in the first half of the year slows down to 2.3%. We expect the annual income yoy to recover by about 10%. The main reasons are: 1) Domex is affected by the epidemic plus sales force adjustment, and growth is expected to return after digestion; 2) Jinyouli Guangdong will be implemented in September, or the sales volume will be increased by price. 2) White purple collection has been implemented one after another in various provinces, and may be under pressure during the year. In addition, new products have been launched one after another since the end of the year: 1) the sales of mitoxantrone liposomes are estimated to be 200 million to 300 million yuan this year, and it is optimistic that the expansion of solid tumor indications will lead to a greater increase; 2) the income of amphotericin B sulfate is expected to hit 300 million yuan this year.

SYS6006: global leader in security / immunogenicity data

SYS6006 (COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine): 1) Progress: at present, 6 clinical studies have been carried out in China (3 basic immunization + 3 sequential). It is optimistic that EUA will be approved based on Omicron data this year, and it is planned to actively promote overseas and Hong Kong phase III registered clinical trials. 2) Global optimal safety: no serious adverse events in phase I (eg, 30 μ g dose second dose fever: 13.3% vs BioNTech 38.8%) 3) High antibody concentration of mutant strain: the total anti-IgG concentration of one dose inoculated in IIT003 was 13-22 times higher than that of inactivated homologous antibody; in the result of neutralization antibody of BA.2 true virus, the TCID50 of 14 days after inoculation with recombinant protein vaccine was 5.9-19 times that of inactivated homologous enhanced; 4) production capacity: current production capacity of 500 million doses, expected to increase to 1.5 billion doses by the end of the year.

Risk hint: collection mining price reduction risk, R & D failure risk, Becton Dickinson & Co slow progress.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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