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中芯国际-U(688981):2Q22业绩略超预期 积极应对周期下行风险

SMIC-U (688981): 2Q22 performance slightly exceeded expectations to respond positively to cyclical downside risks

中金公司 ·  Aug 16, 2022 10:46  · Researches

2Q22 performance slightly exceeded the previous guidance

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation released unaudited Hong Kong stock caliber 2Q22 results: the company's 2Q22 single-quarter revenue of US $1.903 billion, QoQ+3.3%,YoY+41.6%, slightly exceeded the previous QoQ+1-3% performance guidance; gross profit of 39.4% QoQmuri 1.3 ppt, slightly higher than the previous 38-39% performance guidance; net profit of US $518 million, QoQ+16.0%,YoY-25.2%. 1) the company's shipments and average selling prices increased slightly in a single quarter; 2) the annual repairs originally scheduled for the second quarter of some factories affected by the epidemic have not been carried out, so their revenue and gross profit margin are slightly above the guidelines.

Trend of development

The company's 2Q22 single-quarter wafer revenue was $1.903 billion: by size, 12-inch revenue was $1.3 billion, 8-inch revenue was $603 million, and 12-inch revenue continued to grow; by app, smartphone $455 million, smart home $290 million, consumer electronics $426 million, smartphone revenue fell, but other downstream apps continued to grow. Affected by the "quick freeze" of some demand and the climbing of new factory capacity, the utilization rate of 2Q22 capacity was reduced to 97.1%, but the company judged that it was still in a "healthy range".

Other income of the company's 2Q22 is US $96 million, and QoQ+153.6%,YoY-32.1%, is mainly contributed by interest income, other income, profits and losses of joint ventures and joint ventures, resulting in a month-on-month increase in 2Q22 net profit.

The company's 2Q22 equivalent 8-inch wafer monthly production capacity of about 674 million pieces, an increase of about 25,000 pieces compared to 1Q22; 2Q22 Hong Kong stock caliber actual capital expenditure of US $1.672 billion, the company expects full-year 2022 capital expenditure of US $5 billion to remain unchanged.

Management gives the company's 3Q22 performance guidelines and estimates that Hong Kong stocks will have a gross profit margin of 38% QoQ+0%-2%, for a single quarter. Management believes that this downward cycle of semiconductors is mainly affected by the macroeconomic downturn and the structural imbalance between supply and demand within the industry, at least until the end of this year, the end time depends on 1) the trend of macroeconomic situation in 2023 and 2) demand and inventory of terminal companies in 2023. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation will actively respond to the downside risks of the industry by flexibly allocating production capacity, optimizing technology and products, and working closely with customers to maintain a "healthy range" of capacity utilization.

Profit forecast and valuation

We basically keep the company's profit forecast unchanged. We expect revenue of US $7587max and net profit of US $1,835,995 million in 2023. Revenue of 2022 / 2023 of A-share caliber is RMB 53.369 billion and net profit is RMB 12.572 billion. The current company's H / A shares correspond to the 2022 0.9x/2.7x P Placer B. Keep the company's outperform industry rating unchanged, keep the price of Hmp A shares unchanged at HK $20 / 55, and correspond to 1.1x/3.5x 2022 P amp B, which still has 31.5% upside space compared with the current one.

Risk

The utilization rate of capacity is lower than expected; the price is lower than expected; the risk of epidemic spread.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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