事件：贵州茅台2022H1 实现营业收入594.44 亿，同比+17.20%；归母净利 297.94 亿，同比+20.85%。其中2022Q2 实现营业收入262.56 亿，同比+15.89%；归母净利 125.49 亿，同比+17.29%。基本符合市场预期。
产品结构调整和直营比例提升推动收入快速增长。延续2022Q1 的趋势，非标酒投放量增加以及直营比例进一步提升。茅台酒在收入端有较好的表现，2022H1 茅台酒实现收入499.65 亿元，同比+16.33%；2022Q2 茅台酒收入211.05 亿元，同比+14.97%。茅台系列酒2022H1 实现营业收入75.9 亿元，同比+25.34%，2022Q2 实现营业收入 41.70 亿，同比+22.02%，系列酒今年快速增长，主要是公司今年加大系列酒的改革力度，进一步清理系列酒产品，茅台1935 也呈现亮眼表现，同时公司也调整茅台王子酒等产品价格，新品+改革带来的快速增长。直营比例持续提升。2022Q2 公司直销和经销渠道收入分别为100.62 和152.13 亿元，同比+112.87%和-10.76%。2022Q2 公司直营比例提升至 38.32%，较去年同期提升了17.46 个百分点。直营占比提升主要来自于 “i 茅台”平台的贡献，“i 茅台”上线以来销售亮眼，今年上半年平台实现酒类收入44.2 亿元。
产品结构升级带动毛利提升，预收蓄水池较深。通过产品结构升级以及直销渠道销售占比的提升，2022H1 公司毛利率92.11%，同比提升0.73pcts；2022Q2 公司毛利率进一步提升至91.8%，同比提升0.1pcts。2022H1 公司净利率53.99%，同比提升0.6pcts；2022Q2 净利率51.95%，同比下降0.46pcts，主要是营业税金及附加占比提升所致。2022Q2 期末公司合同负债96.69 亿元，其他流动负债11.65 亿元，合同负债+其他流动负债环比增加15.73 亿元，预收蓄水池较深，如果用预收环比变动+销售收入计算出来的2022Q2 真实营收是增长2.76%。2022Q2 公司销售商品收到现金流296.69亿元，同比增长6.08%，与实际应收增速相匹配。
白酒龙头地位不断强化。从长期来看，高端酒持续扩容趋势不改，公司在行业中的地位会不断强化，高端酒价格持续上行的空间仍存。公司新任董事长丁雄军释放出积极改革信号，坚持高质量加速发展，看好公司渠道端“i 茅台”
平台的持续稳健运营、直营渠道不断优化，判断今年公司业绩增速再上一个台阶。
公司盈利预测及投资评级：我们认为今年公司改革红利会持续释放，看好全年业绩的稳定性和增长能力。我们预计2022 年公司实现收入增长17.02%，归母净利润增长20.1%，实现EPS50.15 元，当前股价对应估值38 倍，结合茅台历史估值以及今年业绩提速的预期，我们给予45 倍目标估值，目标价2507 元，维持“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示：消费恢复不及预期，疫情对消费影响超过预期，公司管理层出现重大管理漏洞等。
Event: Guizhou Moutai 2022H1 achieved operating income of 59.444 billion, year-on-year + 17.20%; return to the mother net profit of 29.794 billion, year-on-year + 20.85%. Among them, 2022Q2 realized operating income of 26.256 billion, + 15.89% compared with the same period last year, and home net profit of 12.549 billion, + 17.29% compared with the same period last year. Basically in line with market expectations.
The adjustment of product structure and the increase of direct operation proportion promote the rapid growth of income. Continue the trend of 2022Q1, increase the amount of non-standard wine and further increase the proportion of direct sales. Maotai has a good performance at the revenue end. 2022H1 Maotai achieved 49.965 billion yuan in revenue, compared with + 16.33% + 16.33% and + 14.97% in 2022Q2 Maotai. Maotai series liquor 2022H1 achieved business income of 7.59 billion yuan, year-on-year + 25.34% dome 2022Q2 realized business income of 4.17 billion, year-on-year + 22.02%, series wine rapid growth this year, mainly due to the company to strengthen the reform of the series of wine this year, further clean up the series of wine products, Maotai 1935 also showed a bright performance, at the same time, the company also adjusted the price of Maotai Prince Liquor and other products, new products + rapid growth brought about by reform. The proportion of direct operation continues to increase. The direct sales and distribution channel income of 2022Q2 was 100.62 and 15.213 billion yuan respectively, which was + 112.87% and-10.76% compared with the same period last year. The proportion of direct sales of 2022Q2 increased to 38.32%, an increase of 17.46% over the same period last year. The increase in the proportion of direct sales mainly comes from the contribution of the "I Maotai" platform. Since the launch of "I Maotai", the sales of the platform have been bright, and the platform achieved 4.42 billion yuan in alcohol revenue in the first half of this year.
The upgrading of product structure leads to the improvement of gross profit, and the pre-collection reservoir is deeper. Through the upgrading of product structure and the increase in the proportion of direct sales channels, 2022H1's gross profit margin was 92.11%, which was 0.73% higher than the same period last year. 2022Q2 company gross profit margin further increased to 91.8%, and 0.1pcts increased over the same period last year. The net interest rate of 2022H1 company was 53.99%, which was 51.95% higher than the same period last year, and decreased 0.46pcts compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in business tax and additional share. At the end of the 2022Q2 period, the company's contract liabilities were 9.669 billion yuan, other current liabilities were 1.165 billion yuan, and contract liabilities + other current liabilities increased by 1.573 billion yuan month-on-month, and the pre-income reservoir was deeper. If the 2022Q2 real revenue calculated by the pre-income month-on-month change + sales revenue increased by 2.76%. 2022Q2 received 29.669 billion yuan in cash flow from goods sold, an increase of 6.08% over the same period last year, matching the actual growth rate of receivables.
The leading position of liquor has been continuously strengthened. In the long run, the trend of continuous expansion of high-end wine will not change, the company's position in the industry will continue to strengthen, and there is still room for high-end wine prices to continue to rise. The new chairman of the company, Ding Xiongjun, sends out positive reform signals, insists on high-quality and accelerated development, and is optimistic about the "I Maotai" at the channel end of the company.
The sustained and steady operation of the platform and the continuous optimization of direct marketing channels will judge the company's performance growth rate to a higher level this year.
Company profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that the company's reform dividend will continue to be released this year, and we are optimistic about the stability and growth ability of the full-year performance. We expect the company to achieve revenue growth of 17.02% in 2022, net profit growth of 20.1%, and EPS50.15 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 38 times the valuation. Combined with the historical valuation of Maotai and the expected acceleration of performance this year, we give it a target valuation of 45 times and a target price of 2507 yuan, maintaining the "highly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of consumption is not as expected, the impact of the epidemic on consumption is greater than expected, and there are major management loopholes in the management of the company.
