The company announced 22h1 results, 22h1 company income of HK $9.7 billion, yoy+20%,hoh+21%; return net profit of HK $1.9 billion, yoy-38% (pre-forecast range of-33% yoy+20%,hoh+21%; 43%), hoh+3%. Half-year profit is roughly at the mid-level of the previous forecast range, and there is greater pressure compared with the same month, which mainly reflects the weak relationship between supply and demand of photovoltaic glass and the squeeze of silicon cost where the price is stable at an all-time high.
22h1 photovoltaic glass sales continued to grow, profit margins continued to be under pressure compared with the previous month, and the power generation business performed steadily from a revenue point of view. The company's 22h1 solar glass and solar power generation (including epc, the same below) business income was HK $81 and HK $1.6 billion respectively, and yoy + 23% and + 6% respectively. Solar glass sales continued to grow rapidly (yoy + 45% 22h1 18% by weight), which basically matched the pace of capacity increase (22h1 put into production 3 new 1000t/d production lines, while 2 900t/d production lines repaired in the previous period resumed production, and 22h1 was in production capacity 16800t/d at the end of the production. On the other hand, the average price of 22h1 photovoltaic glass has rebounded slightly from the previous month (according to Zhuangchuang, the average price of 22h1 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 26.8 yuan, yoy-19% 3.2mm 6.5 yuan, hoh + 5% Universe 1.2 yuan, as of 22-07-28 the national average price is 27.5 yuan), the price recovery rate may be lower than the cost increase rate (soda ash, fuel, etc.).
Solar power business revenue growth is generally stable, 22h1 added grid-connected photovoltaic power station 42MW, of which independent development of grid-connected 2MW, acquisition of 40MW. Affected by the higher price of components, the pace of adding 22h1 to the grid is slow, and the annual installation target (720MW) of 22fy may be revised.
From the point of view of profitability, the company's 22h1 comprehensive gross profit margin and homing net profit margin are 34.1% and 19.6% respectively. From a business point of view, the gross profit margins of 22h1 solar glass and solar power generation are 26.7% and 72.8% respectively. 22h1 solar glass gross profit margin is further under pressure, reflecting the weak supply and demand relationship of photovoltaic glass (on the one hand, there is more new production capacity in the industry, on the other hand, the industry is slightly restrained in the context of a large rise in the cost of silicon and other components), as well as the squeeze of silicon link, where prices are basically stable at historically high levels. 22h1 photovoltaic glass gross profit margin is the worst in half a year in 19 years. We think it is the profit level of the region at the bottom of the industry boom. The profitability of the solar power business is generally stable.
Photovoltaic glass firm expansion, 22fy photovoltaic power station grid goal or downrevision, growth momentum and promising company as the leading cost advantage position of photovoltaic glass industry, firm expansion (22h2 expects to put into production 5 new 1000t/d production lines, but also a total of 12 12800t/d production lines to be built), the pace is expected to be faster than the industry, the company's market share and cost advantage of photovoltaic glass may continue to strengthen. Downstream, the company's photovoltaic power station business is profitable, has room for development, continuous optimization of cash flow, and photovoltaic glass has a good coordination, medium-and long-term steady growth is worth looking forward to. In addition, the preliminary work of the polysilicon project is progressing smoothly and 23h2 is expected to be put into production, which will help to further expand the growth driving force of the cultivated photovoltaic industry chain.
Downgrade the profit forecast, continue to be optimistic about the company's growth prospects and leading advantages, maintain the "buy" rating combined with cost changes, we adjust the photovoltaic glass price change assumptions, and based on the more cautious photovoltaic glass unit profit expectations and the production rhythm of new capacity, we adjust the company's revenue forecast for 22-24 to HK $42.9 billion (the previous value is HK $213ame310). The 22-24 return net profit of the company is forecast to HK $8612.6 billion (the previous value is HK $95142 billion). The 22-24 income and YoY of 22-24 are 30%, 51%, 36% and 7%, respectively, 62% and 47%, of which the 22-24 net profit of photovoltaic glass and photovoltaic power stations are estimated to be HK $43, 75, 114 and 10-11-12, respectively. Photovoltaic glass stage is under pressure, counter-cyclical firm expansion, leading competitive advantage or continuous strengthening; photovoltaic industry multi-link layout has coordination, consolidate the foundation for medium-and long-term growth, maintain the company's target price of 17.20 yuan based on medium-and long-term development judgment, corresponding to 22E/23E PE is 29x/18x respectively, maintain "buy"
Rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic glass new capacity input exceeds expectations, demand is lower than expected, policy risk, raw material prices fluctuate sharply, photovoltaic power station payback risk, different market valuation systems lead to inaccurate risk, polysilicon investment landing rhythm and return lower than expected risk