市场化改革加速，公司发展迈入新阶段，维持“买入”评级
2022 年上半年营业总收入594.4 亿元，同比+17.2%，归母净利润297.9 亿元，同比+20.9%。2022Q2 营业总收入262.6 亿元，同比+15.9%，归母净利润125.5 亿元，同比+17.3%。公司改革举措持续推进，未来增长空间充足，我们维持2022-2024 年盈利预测，预计2022-2024 年净利润分别为620.6 亿元、735.7 亿元、860.6 亿元，同比分别+18.3%、+18.5%、+17.0%，EPS 分别为49.40 元、58.56元、68.51 元，当前股价对应PE 分别为38.8、32.7、28.0 倍，维持“买入”评级。
“i 茅台”渠道快速增长，渠道改革效果彰显分产品看2022Q2 茅台酒实现收入211.1 亿元，同比+15.0%；系列酒收入41.7 亿元，同比+22.0%。分渠道看2022Q2 直销渠道收入100.6 亿元，同比+112.9%，占比+18.1pct 至39.8%，其中“i 茅台”实现不含税营收44.2 亿元，直营渠道增长主要来自于此。批发渠道收入152.1 亿元，同比-10.8%，占比-18.1pct 至60.2%，主要原因是经销商生肖产品、珍品有部分配额转移至“i 茅台”销售。未来随着电商平台SKU 的持续增加，直营渠道占比将进一步提升，加速渠道利润回流。
直营渠道提升背景下，预收款环比变动小于2021 年同期2022Q2 销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金为296.7 亿元，同比+6.1%，主要原因是Q2 渠道变革背景下，季度末预收款环比提升幅度小于2021 年6 月末。2022 年6月末合同负债96.7 亿元，环比3 月末+13.5 亿元。
Q2 毛利率提升，税金比率以及销售费用率增加导致净利率略降2022Q2 毛利率+0.77pct 至91.78%，主要原因是直营渠道占比提升以及产品结构优化。税金及附加费用率+2.86pct 至16.66%，拆分细项看主要是消费税增加，背后原因应是产成品生产量增加所致。销售费用率+0.53pct 至3.72%，主要原因是系列酒的推广力度加大。各项费用综合作用下净利率-0.46pct 至51.95%。长期随着产品结构、渠道结构优化，规模效应显现，净利率整体预计呈提升趋势。
风险提示：宏观经济波动致使需求下滑，省外扩张不及预期等
With the acceleration of market-oriented reform, the company has entered a new stage of development and maintained a "buy" rating.
The total operating income in the first half of 2022 was 59.44 billion yuan, + 17.2% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 29.79 billion yuan, + 20.9% compared with the same period last year. The total revenue of 2022Q2 was 26.26 billion yuan, + 15.9% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 12.55 billion yuan, + 17.3% compared with the same period last year. The company's reform measures continue to move forward, and there is plenty of room for future growth. We maintain our profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the net profit for 2022-2024 will be 62.06 billion yuan, 73.57 billion yuan and 86.06 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The EPS of + 18.3%, + 18.5% and + 17.0% respectively are 49.40,58.56,68.51 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 38.8,32.7and 28.0 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The "I Maotai" channel is growing rapidly, and the effect of channel reform shows that the income of 2022Q2 Maotai Liquor is 21.11 billion yuan, + 15.0% compared with the same period last year, and that of series liquor is 4.17 billion yuan, + 22.0% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q2 direct sales channel revenue by channel is 10.06 billion yuan, year-on-year + 112.9%, accounting for + 18.1pct to 39.8%, of which "I Maotai" achieved tax-free revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, which is mainly due to the growth of direct sales channels. Wholesale channel revenue of 15.21 billion yuan, year-on-year-10.8%, accounting for-18.1pct to 60.2%, mainly because dealers of zodiac products, treasures have part of the quota transferred to "I Maotai" sales. In the future, with the continuous increase of e-commerce platform SKU, the proportion of direct channels will further increase and accelerate the return of channel profits.
Under the background of the promotion of direct channels, the month-on-month change of advance receipts is less than that of 2022Q2 in the same period in 2021, the cash received by Q2 channels for selling goods and providing services is 29.67 billion yuan, which is + 6.1% compared with the same period last year. The main reason is that the quarter-end advance payment increases less than at the end of June 2021 under the background of Q2 channel reform. The contract debt at the end of June 2022 was 9.67 billion yuan, which was + 1.35 billion yuan at the end of March compared with the end of March.
The increase in Q2 gross profit margin, tax ratio and sales expense rate led to a slight decrease in 2022Q2 gross profit margin + 0.77pct to 91.78%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct channels and the optimization of product structure. The rate of tax and surcharge + 2.86pct to 16.66%. The breakdown is mainly due to the increase in consumption tax, which should be caused by the increase in the production of finished goods. The sales expense rate + 0.53pct to 3.72% is mainly due to the increased promotion of the series of wines. Net interest rate under the combined effect of various fees-0.46pct to 51.95%. With the long-term optimization of product structure and channel structure, the scale effect appears, and the overall net interest rate is expected to show an upward trend.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, expansion outside the province is not as expected, etc.
