事件：
8 月2 日，公司发布2022 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入576.17 亿元（同比+17.38%），实现归母净利润297.94 亿元（同比+20.85%）；22Q2 单季度实现营收253.21 亿元（同比+16.06%），实现归母净利润125.49 元（同比+17.29%），与公司此前披露的经营情况一致，符合预期。
投资摘要：
系列酒高增，成为重要引擎；茅台酒稳增，确定性强。22H1 公司完成茅台基酒产量4.25 万吨（同比+12.43%），实现营收499.65 亿元（同比+16.33%）；系列酒基酒产量1.7 万吨（同比+36%），实现营收75.98 亿元（同比+25.37%）。系列酒的收入占比同比提升0.83pct 至13.2%，对公司收入增长贡献日益增加。
收入、利润增长的前提下，成本、费用占比微降，助力净利润率进一步提升。22H1公司营收/毛利润1/归母净利润分别增长17.38%/18.31%/20.85%，推算22Q2 营收/毛利润/归母净利润增速分别为16.06%/17.05%/17.29%，公司收入利润均实现较好增长。22H1 毛利率达到91.78%（同比+0.77pct），其中22Q1/Q2 的毛利率同比分别增0.69pct/0.77pct。预计毛利率的提升主要来自系列酒结构的优化（如茅台1935 销售额放量增长）以及直销占比的提升。虽销售费用率同比微增0.52 个pct，但毛销差/归母净利润率同比分别提升0.25pct/0.57pct。
回款良好，合同负债环比提升。现金流方面，22H1 销售回款611.57 亿元2，同比增21.66%，其中22Q1/Q2 回款分别为314.88 亿元/296.69 亿元，同比分别增长41.2%/6.08%。22H1 经营活动净现金流-11.16 亿元，与净利润的差距主要来自公司并表子公司金融类项目现金流的影响3，公司自身现金流健康稳健。6 月末合同负债96.69 亿元，较3 月末环比增加16.19%。
新品广受欢迎，i 茅台等助力公司直销渠道占比大幅提升。公司推出虎茅、珍品茅台、茅台1935、100ml 飞天茅台等新品，销售势头良好，提升了公司产品价格带。“i 茅台”数字营销平台上线，22H1 已实现酒类收入（不含税）44.16 亿元，开辟了公司线上直销新渠道，成功开发茅台冰激凌，市场反响热烈。22H1 公司直销渠道实现收入209.49 亿元（同比+120.42%），批发代理渠道实现收入366.14 亿元（同比-7.32%），直销渠道收入占比大幅提升17 个百分点，达到36.4%。
投资建议：我们预计公司2022-2024 年的营收分别为1275.46 亿元、1490.46 亿元和1755.12 亿元，对应同比增长16.52%、16.86%、17.76%，归母净利润分别为613.37 亿元、716.97 亿元和842.92 亿元，对应同比增长16.92%、16.89%、17.57%，EPS 分别为48.83 元、57.07 元和67.1 元，对应报告日股价的PE 分别为38.61 倍、33.03 倍和28.09 倍。参考高端白酒估值水平，考虑到公司较强的经营稳定性和业绩确定性，给予公司高于其他白酒企业的估值水平，对应公司22 年预测净利润给予45 倍PE，对应目标价格2197.24 元，给予“增持”评级。
风险提示：宏观经济不确定性，白酒消费需求受损，生态环境保护风险，食品安全风险
Events:
On August 2, the company released its semi-annual report of 2022, with an operating income of 57.617 billion yuan (+ 17.38% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 29.794 billion yuan (+ 20.85% compared with the same period last year). 22Q2 achieved a revenue of 25.321 billion yuan (+ 16.06% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 125.49 yuan (+ 17.29% compared with the same period last year), which is consistent with the company's previously disclosed business situation and in line with expectations.
Investment Summary:
The series of liquor has become an important engine, while Maotai liquor has a steady increase and strong certainty. 22H1 produced 42500 tons of Maotai base liquor (+ 12.43% compared with the same period last year), with a revenue of 49.965 billion yuan (+ 16.33% compared with the same period last year) and 17000 tons of base liquor (+ 36% compared with the same period last year), with revenue of 7.598 billion yuan (+ 25.37% compared with the same period last year). The revenue share of series wines increased to 13.2% year-on-year, contributing more and more to the company's revenue growth.
Under the premise of income and profit growth, the proportion of costs and expenses decreased slightly, helping to further improve the net profit margin. 22H1's revenue / gross profit 1 / home net profit increased by 17.38%, 18.31%, 20.85%, respectively. It is estimated that the growth rate of 22Q2 revenue / gross profit / home net profit is 16.06%, 17.05%, 17.29%, respectively, and the company's revenue and profit have achieved good growth. The gross profit margin of 22H1 reached 91.78% (year-on-year + 0.77pct), of which the gross profit margin of 22Q1/Q2 increased by 0.69pct/0.77pct respectively compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the optimization of the structure of the series of wines (such as the volume growth of Maotai 1935) and the increase in the proportion of direct sales. Although the sales expense rate slightly increased by 0.52 pct compared with the same period last year, the gross sales margin / return net profit margin increased 0.25pct/0.57pct respectively.
The payback is good, and the contract debt is higher than the previous month. In terms of cash flow, 22H1 sales returned 61.157 billion yuan 2, an increase of 21.66% over the same period last year, of which 22Q1/Q2 rebate was 31.488 billion yuan / 29.669 billion yuan, an increase of 41.2% and 6.08% respectively over the same period last year. The net cash flow of 22H1 operating activities is-1.116 billion yuan, and the difference between the net profit and the net profit mainly comes from the influence of the financial project cash flow of the company and the subsidiary company. 3, the cash flow of the company itself is healthy and steady. At the end of June, the contract liability was 9.669 billion yuan, an increase of 16.19% compared with the month-on-month at the end of March.
The new products are very popular, and the proportion of direct sales channels of companies such as Maotai has increased significantly. The company launched Humao, treasures Maotai, Maotai 1935, 100ml Feitian Maotai and other new products, sales momentum is good, improved the company's product price belt. "I Maotai" digital marketing platform launched, 22H1 has achieved alcohol income (excluding tax) 4.416 billion yuan, opened up a new online direct sales channel, the successful development of Maotai ice cream, the market response is enthusiastic. 22H1's direct sales channel achieved revenue of 20.949 billion yuan (year-on-year + 120.42%), wholesale agency channel revenue of 36.614 billion yuan (year-on-year-7.32%), and the proportion of direct sales channel revenue increased significantly by 17 percentage points to 36.4%.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 127.546 billion yuan, 149.046 billion yuan and 175.512 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 16.52%, 16.86% and 17.76%, and its net profit is 61.337 billion yuan, 716.97 yuan and 842.92 yuan respectively, corresponding to an increase of 16.92%, 16.89% and 17.57% respectively. The PE corresponding to the stock price on the reporting day is 38.61,33.03,28.09times respectively. With reference to the valuation level of high-end liquor, taking into account the strong operational stability and performance certainty of the company, the valuation level of the company is higher than that of other liquor enterprises, corresponding to the 22-year forecast net profit of 45 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 2197.24 yuan, given the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic uncertainty, damage to liquor consumption demand, eco-environmental protection risk, food safety risk
