2022Q2 总营收/净利润同比+16%/+17%，业绩符合此前公告。Q2 渠道端，i 茅台推动直销占比显著提升至40%；产品端，茅台1935 预计占系列酒比例达到约40%，带动系列酒结构升级；生产端，技改为中长期产能创造自然增量。看好公司改革效能的持续释放及更多市场化经营举措落地，维持“买入”评级。
2022H1 总营收/净利润同比+17%/+21%，业绩符合此前公告。公司公布2022年半年度报告，2022H1 实现营业总收入594.4 亿元，同比+17.2%，实现归属净利润297.9 亿元，同比+20.8%，对应净利率50.1%，同比+1.5pcts；2022Q2实现营业总收入262.6 亿元，同比+15.9%，实现归属净利润125.5 亿元，同比+17.3%，对应净利率47.8%，同比+0.6pct，业绩符合此前公告。
系列酒结构升级&直销收入占比显著提升带动公司增收增利。2022H1 茅台酒/系列酒分别实现收入499.7 亿/76.0 亿元，同比+16.3%/+25.4%，对应2022Q2茅台酒/系列酒分别实现收入211.1 亿/41.7 亿元，同比+15.0%/+22.0%。从收入占比来看，2022Q2 系列酒收入占比同比+0.8pct 至16.5%，但公司毛利率整体+0.8pct 至91.8%，净利率受税金及附加占比提升的影响同比+0.6pct 至47.8%。
我们认为公司实现营、利双增主要系：
1）茅台酒直销占比进一步大幅提升，量价齐升。2022Q2 公司直销收入100.6亿元，同比增长113%，直销占比酒类收入达39.8%，同比+18.1pcts，环比+6.1pcts，我们测算其中茅台酒直销收入约91.0 亿元，占茅台酒收入达43%，同比+17.4pcts，环比+5.5pcts。茅台酒直销占比提升，一方面i 茅台3 月31 日正式上线，我们测算Q2 贡献茅台酒收入约34.1 亿元；另一方面线下直营店实现茅台酒收入约57.0 亿元，同比增长21%。Q2 茅台酒经销收入同比增速-12%，我们判断主要减少的是非标产品。综上，我们测算Q2 茅台酒量价提升幅度均为5%-10%，实现量价齐升。
2）茅台1935 稳居千元价位带并持续放量，带动系列酒结构升级。我们预计2022Q2 茅台1935 实现收入约超15 亿元，而其他系列酒收入同比有双位数下滑，判断原因一方面为公司主动调整系列酒战略所致，另一方面来自行业及疫情影响。预计2022Q2 茅台1935 在系列酒中的收入占比约40%，带动系列酒结构升级。
技改成效凸显，产能体现弹性。2022H1 公司在未新增设计产能的情况下，实现茅台酒和系列酒基酒产量分别为4.25 万吨/1.70 万吨，同比+12.4%/+36.0%。
从在建工程来看，截至2022Q2，茅台酒技改项目均已完工，系列酒技改项目多半已完成。“十四五”期间，公司还计划将在15.03 平方公里核心产区和超万亩赤水河流域酱香产业集聚区投资建设20 多个重大项目。
近期批价持续上行，预期下半年渠道变革节奏稳健。近期市场需求稳中有升，一线城市疫情形势向好和中秋前经销商的惜售心理带动批价持续上行，箱/散茅价格分别达3220/2800 元，较六月底分别增长约180/80 元。下半年我们仍看好公司渠道变革和产品结构升级带来的量价齐升，但考虑到i 茅台上线后的短期放量效应，结合近期虎茅礼盒的平台投放量缩减至500 套左右，我们判断下半年公司的渠道变革节奏相对稳健，全年预期直销收入占比约35%左右。
风险因素：宏观经济复苏不及预期；局部疫情反复超预期；食品安全问题；公司战略执行不及预期；公司产品提价不及预期；新品销量或营销效果不及预期。
投资建议：公司中报表现亮眼，改革成效彰显，我们维持公司2022-24 年收入预测为1,271 亿/1,429 亿/1,612 亿元，同比+16.2%/+12.4%/+12.8%；维持归属 净利润预测为622 亿/703 亿/796 亿元，同比+18.6%/+12.9%/+13.3%，对应2022-24 年EPS 为49.54/55.95/63.39 元。看好公司在深厚品牌护城河下的短期业绩高确定性及中长期改革红利，维持“买入”评级。
2022Q2 total revenue / net profit year-on-year + 16% Universe 17%, the results are in line with the previous announcement. On the Q2 channel side, I Maotai significantly increased the proportion of direct sales to 40%; on the product side, Maotai 1935 is expected to account for about 40% of the series of wines, driving the upgrading of the series of liquor structure; on the production side, technological transformation creates natural increments for medium-and long-term production capacity. Be optimistic about the continuous release of the effectiveness of the company's reform and the landing of more market-oriented management measures, and maintain the "buy" rating.
2022H1 total revenue / net profit year-on-year + 17% Universe 21%, performance in line with the previous announcement. According to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 2022H1 achieved a total operating income of 59.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 17.2%, and an attributable net profit of 29.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 20.8%, corresponding to a net interest rate of 50.1%, a year-on-year + 1.5pcts 2022Q2 achieved a total operating income of 26.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 15.9%, and an attributable net profit of 12.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 17.3%, corresponding to a net interest rate of 47.8% and a year-on-year + 0.6pct. The performance is in line with the previous announcement.
Series of wine structure upgrading-a significant increase in the proportion of direct sales revenue to drive the company to increase income and profits. The income of 2022H1 Maotai / series liquor is 49.97 billion / 7.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 16.3% and 25.4% respectively compared with the same period last year. The corresponding income of 2022Q2 Maotai / series liquor is 21.11 billion / 4.17 billion yuan, which is + 15.0% and 22.0% compared with the same period last year. In terms of revenue share, 2022Q2 series wine revenue accounted for + 0.8pct to 16.5% compared with the same period last year, but the company's overall gross profit margin was + 0.8pct to 91.8%, and the net profit rate was affected by the increase in tax and additional share to + 0.6pct to 47.8%.
We believe that the company's realization of both revenue and profit is mainly due to:
1) the proportion of direct sales of Maotai liquor has further increased significantly, with both volume and price rising. 2022Q2's direct sales revenue was 10.06 billion yuan, an increase of 113% over the same period last year. Direct sales accounted for 39.8% of alcohol revenue, year-on-year + 18.1pcts, month-on-month + 6.1pcts. We estimate that Maotai liquor direct sales income is about 9.1 billion yuan, accounting for 43% of Maotai liquor revenue, year-on-year + 17.4pcts, month-on-month + 5.5pcts. The proportion of direct sales of Maotai liquor has increased. On the one hand, I Maotai was officially launched on March 31, and we estimate that Q2 contributed about 3.41 billion yuan to Maotai liquor revenue; on the other hand, offline stores realized Maotai liquor revenue of about 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. Q2 Maotai liquor distribution revenue growth rate of-12%, we judge that the main reduction is non-standard products. To sum up, we estimate that the volume and price of Q2 Maotai liquor will increase by 5%, 10%, and achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price.
2) Maotai 1935 stably occupies the 1000-yuan price band and continues to increase volume, leading to the upgrading of the structure of the series of wines. We estimate that the revenue of 2022Q2 Maotai 1935 will exceed 1.5 billion yuan, while the revenue of other series of wines has a double-digit decline compared with the same period last year, which is due to the company's initiative to adjust the strategy of the series of wines on the one hand and the influence of the industry and epidemic on the other. It is estimated that 2022Q2 Maotai 1935 accounts for about 40% of the revenue in the series, leading to the upgrading of the series of wines.
The effect of technological transformation is prominent, and the production capacity is flexible. Without adding new design capacity, 2022H1 achieved an output of 42500 tons / 17000 tons of Maotai and series of base liquors respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4% Universe 36.0%.
From the point of view of the projects under construction, as of 2022Q2, the Maotai liquor technical renovation projects have been completed, and most of the series of liquor technical renovation projects have been completed. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the company also plans to invest in more than 20 major projects in the core production area of 15.03 square kilometers and the Maotai industry agglomeration area of more than 10,000 mu of Chishui River Basin.
Recent approval prices continue to rise, and the pace of channel change is expected to be steady in the second half of the year. Recently, the market demand has been steadily rising. The epidemic situation in first-tier cities has improved and the selling psychology of dealers before the Mid-Autumn Festival has led to a continuous upward trend in wholesale prices. The price of box / bulk grass has respectively reached 3,220 hectare 2800 yuan, an increase of about 180x80 yuan respectively compared with the end of June. In the second half of the year, we are still optimistic about the increase in volume and price brought about by the company's channel change and product structure upgrading, but considering the short-term volume effect after I Maotai goes online, combined with the recent reduction in the number of Humao gift boxes to about 500 sets, we judge that the pace of channel change of the company in the second half of the year is relatively steady, accounting for about 35% of the expected direct sales revenue for the whole year.
Risk factors: macroeconomic recovery is not as expected; local epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations; food safety problems; the implementation of the company's strategy is not as expected; the price increase of the company's products is not as expected; new product sales or marketing results are not as expected.
Investment advice: the company reported outstanding performance, and the results of the reform are remarkable. We maintain the company's forecast revenue of 127.1 billion / 142.9 billion / 161.2 billion yuan in 2022-24, 12.8% in 2022-24 compared with the same period last year, and maintain the vested net profit forecast as 62.2 billion / 70.3 billion / 79.6 billion yuan. Year-on-year + 18.6% lead "12.9% Universe" 13.3%, corresponding to the 2022-24 EPS of 49.54 million 55.9553.39 yuan. Optimistic about the company's high short-term certainty and medium-and long-term reform dividends under the deep brand moat, and maintain the "buy" rating.
