事件：公司发布2022 年半年报，报告期内公司实现营业总收入594.44 亿元，同比增长17.20%；实现归母净利润297.94 亿元，同比增长20.85%；扣非净利润297.63 亿元，同比增长20.75%。
投资要点
Q2 业绩稳健增长，全年目标可期：公司2022Q2 营业总收入262.56 亿元，同比增长15.89%，归母净利润125.48 亿元，同比增长17.28%。分产品看，上半年茅台酒营业收入499.65 亿元，同比增长16.34%，系列酒实现收入75.98 亿元，同比增长25.38%；其中2022Q2 茅台酒、系列酒分别同比增长14.97%/22.00%。2022年公司总营收增速目标为15%，上半年已完成45.77%总营收目标，整体业绩稳健增长，全年目标完成确定性强。
i 茅台表现亮眼，改革红利持续释放：新管理层持续推动渠道改革与产品结构调整，上半年建设成果斐然：渠道端：公司上半年直销收入209.49 亿元，同比增长120%，占比同比提高17 个百分点达到36.39%，其中新建直销平台i 茅台贡献良多，根据公司股东大会披露，截至6 月14 日，i 茅台营收已超过30 亿元；产品端：千元价位高端新品茅台1935 备受消费者追捧，其在i 茅台上线仅100 天销售额就突破9亿元，带动系列酒产品结构改善、吨价提升。我们认为公司改革步伐坚定，持续推动产品结构与渠道调整，回收体外利润，公司盈利水平仍有提升空间。
盈利能力同比提升，费用率稳中有降： 2022H1 公司毛利率和净利率分别为92.11%/53.99%，同比增加0.73pct/0.60pct，毛利率和净利率小幅提升，我们认为主要是收益于直销占比提升以及系列酒产品结构改善。2022H1 销售费用率/管理费用率分别为2.62%/6.31%，同比减少0.01pct/0.80pct，2022Q2 销售费用率为3.86%，同比增加0.54pct，预计主要用于线上平台开发宣传以及茅台雪糕等活动；整体而言费用率平稳可控，盈利能力持续改善。
投资建议：我们认为在上半年疫情频发的情况下公司依然能够取得如此稳健的业绩，充分展现了公司的品牌实力以及护城河厚度；市场化改革也在不断加强公司渠道和产品价格掌控力，系列酒产品结构与价格空间仍有较大挖掘潜力，我们看好公司长期投资价值。基于公司发布的2022H1 经营数据，我们略调高公司盈利预测，预计2022-2024 年公司营业收入分别为1280.85/1480.71/1704.66 亿元，同比增长17.0%/15.6%/15.1%。归母净利润616.84/730.09/848.74 亿元，同比增长17.6%/18.4%/16.3%。对应EPS 分别为49.10/58.12/67.56 元。维持公司“买入-A”建议。
风险提示：食品安全问题；行业竞争加剧；市场化改革不及预期；白酒消费税率存在改革可能性等。
Event: the company released its semi-annual report for 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 59.444 billion yuan, an increase of 17.20% over the same period last year, a net profit of 29.794 billion yuan, an increase of 20.85% over the same period last year, and a non-net profit of 29.763 billion yuan, an increase of 20.75%.
Main points of investment
Q2 performance is growing steadily, and the target for the whole year is expected: the company's total 2022Q2 revenue is 26.256 billion yuan, an increase of 15.89% over the same period last year, and its mother's net profit is 12.548 billion yuan, an increase of 17.28% over the same period last year. In terms of products, the business income of Maotai liquor in the first half of the year was 49.965 billion yuan, an increase of 16.34% over the same period last year, while that of series liquor was 7.598 billion yuan, an increase of 25.38% over the same period last year. Among them, 2022Q2 Maotai liquor and series liquor increased by 14.97% and 22.00% respectively over the same period last year. The company's total revenue growth target is 15% in 2022, and 45.77% of the total revenue target has been achieved in the first half of the year, with steady growth in overall performance and strong certainty in achieving the annual target.
I Maotai outstanding performance, reform dividend continued to release: the new management continued to promote channel reform and product structure adjustment, the first half of the construction results are remarkable: Channel end: the company's direct sales revenue in the first half of the year 20.949 billion yuan, an increase of 120% over the same period last year, accounting for an increase of 17 percentage points to 36.39%, of which the new direct sales platform I Maotai contributed a lot, as of June 14, according to the company's shareholders' meeting. I Maotai's revenue has exceeded 3 billion yuan. Product end: Maotai 1935, a new high-end product with a price of 1000 yuan, is highly sought after by consumers. its sales exceeded 900 million yuan in just 100 days, leading to the improvement of the product structure and tonnage price of the series of wines. We believe that the company has a firm pace of reform, continue to promote product structure and channel adjustment, recovery of external profits, the company's profit level still has room to improve.
The profitability increased year-on-year, and the expense rate declined steadily: 2022H1's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 92.11% and 53.99% respectively, an increase in 0.73pct/0.60pct over the same period last year, and a slight increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin, which we believe is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct sales and the improvement of the structure of a series of wine products. The sales expense rate / management expense rate of 2022H1 is 2.62% and 6.31% respectively, which is 3.86% lower than the same period last year and 3.86% lower than the same period last year. It is expected to be mainly used for online platform development and promotion as well as Maotai ice cream and other activities. Overall, the expense rate is stable and controllable, and profitability continues to improve.
Investment advice: we believe that the company can still achieve such a sound performance in the first half of the year despite frequent outbreaks, fully demonstrating the company's brand strength and the thickness of the moat; market-oriented reform is also constantly strengthening the control of the company's channels and product prices, series of wine product structure and price space still have great potential, we are optimistic about the company's long-term investment value. Based on the 2022H1 operating data released by the company, we slightly raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 1,280.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.0%, 15.6% and 15.1% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit from homing is 616.84Universe 730.09Universe 84.874 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6%, 18.4% and 16.3% over the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is 49.10 × 58.12 × 67.56 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's "buy-A" proposal.
Risk tips: food safety problems; intensified competition in the industry; market-oriented reform is not as expected; liquor consumption tax rate has the possibility of reform.
