Seymour issued a 22H1 trailer. H1 is expected to have an adjusted net profit of 13.75-1.606 billion yuan, down 53.8%, 46.0%, and 39.8%, respectively.
Q2 revenue is expected to improve month-on-month, high base year-on-year pressure. From the point of view of ① in the United States, the share of Britain and the United States is slowly rising, but the PMTA result of the blockbuster product Alto is uncertain, and small brands that have not applied for PMTA (especially one-time) are still paved and squeezed. ② non-American market, one-off trend upward, while Si Moore products are still testing the water. ③ domestic point of view, based on consumer hoarding demand, production and sales have improved, but the 21Q2 base is high, so there is a certain degree of pressure compared with the same period last year.
H2 overseas income is expected to improve, there is long-term space at home. From the point of view of ① in the United States, British American Tobacco PLC's product Alto is expected to pass PMTA (the same company + the same supply chain products have been passed), while the one-time product policy is stricter, Juul has been banned by FDA, and British American Tobacco PLC's share has a larger space to increase. ② non-American market, Si Moore supply disposable products are expected to be shipped on a large scale. From the domestic point of view of ③, there is great uncertainty, and the new GB prohibited taste may face a contraction in market demand; but in the short term, terminal licensed shopkeepers always have a demand for restocking, and in the long run, the industry will return to the direction of harm reduction instead of tobacco, and tobacco taste products will be improved iteratively, and there is still plenty of room for long-term growth.
Profitability is expected to decline this year and is expected to be manageable next year. The decline in profitability is due to the substantial increase in R & D costs, and the expected increase in the proportion of low-margin products (domestic gross profit margin is higher than that of foreign countries, and the gross profit margin of replacement cigarettes is higher than that of other businesses). Third, the epidemic and other factors affect capacity utilization, and overseas relocation of factories will also bring profit fluctuations. Next year, in addition to the possible domestic tax impact, earnings fluctuations are expected to be manageable.
Profit forecast and investment advice: it is expected that 22 years of overseas stability, domestic adjustment, net interest rate based on R & D investment and other reasons. Seymour's net profit for 22-24 is expected to be 100 million yuan in 38-50-64, compared with-30%, 30% and 29%, which is valued at 35 times PE for 22 years, with a reasonable value of HK $26.16 per share (HKD exchange rate 0.85), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint. Policy uncertainty; net interest rate fell further; new business was lower than expected.