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京东集团-SW(9618.HK)2022Q2业绩前瞻:供需稳步恢复收入显韧性 利润率保持稳健

JD Group-SW (9618.HK) 202Q2 Performance Forecast: Supply and demand are steadily recovering, revenue is resilient, profit margins remain steady

國海證券 ·  Jul 17, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Main financial indicators: we expect the total revenue of JD.com Group 2022Q2 to reach 262 billion yuan (YoY+3%,QoQ+9%), of which commodity revenue is expected to be 226.5 billion yuan (YoY+3%) and service revenue is expected to be 35.5 billion yuan (YoY+4%). It is estimated that the Non-GAAP homing net profit of 2022Q2 of JD.com Group is 4.7 billion yuan (YoY+1%,QoQ+16%), and the Non-GAAP homing net interest rate is 0.1% to 1.8% higher than the previous month. The stability of Non-GAAP homing net profit is mainly due to the offset balance of positive and negative factors, 1) negative factors:

Under the influence of the epidemic, 1P live electricity and 3P service income with higher profit margins are under pressure, and the fast-growing supermarkets are still losing money, and the performance costs are expected to rise significantly under the epidemic; 2) positive factors: under the macro weakness, the company's marketing investment is more cautious, and the strategic contraction of Beijing-Xipi in the new business continues to optimize UE, and losses are expected to continue to reduce month-on-month.

User outlook: we expect the number of active users of JD.com Group to reach 600 million in the year to 2022Q2, an increase of 20 million over the previous quarter, mainly due to 1) the advantages of the proprietary logistics system during the epidemic and a further increase in user penetration. 2) benefiting from the continuous customer acquisition promotion of innovative businesses such as Jingxipin in the sinking area. In the future, with the continuous development of JD.com 's omni-channel business, improving the proportion of high-quality users and user participation will become the main direction in the future.

JD.com Retail: we expect 2022Q2 JD.com 's retail revenue to grow 3.8% year-on-year to 241.5 billion yuan, and operating profit margin to drop to 2.5%. Revenue from 2022Q2 1P electrified products is expected to grow 0.3% to 137.2 billion yuan, 1P department store revenue up 7.7% to 89.3 billion yuan, and 3P platform and advertising service revenue up 2.4% to 19.4 billion yuan. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of retail revenue of 2022Q2 JD.com is mainly affected by the epidemic situation in some high-line cities in May, and the consumption power and performance efficiency are restricted to a certain extent. 1) on the demand side: the replacement cycle of electrified products with high passenger unit price is prolonged, and there are more merchandise categories with low unit price, and the online retail sales of physical goods in China recorded a year-on-year growth rate of only 5.6% from January to June 2022, which is also a drag on the growth rate of platform GMV to some extent. 2) supply side: 3P merchants are more affected by the epidemic, mainly because non-JD.com self-logistics is more affected by the epidemic, and 3P merchants sell mainly in long-tail categories such as clothing, and some businesses have pressure on summer equipment goods when spring clothing inventory is overstocked. However, the overall performance of JD.com 618 this year is sound, and with the gradual recovery of compliance that began in June, it is expected that the revenue growth rate of the plate will gradually pick up in the future.

JD Logistics, Inc.: according to the data of the State Post Bureau, the year-on-year growth rate of national express business in April / May / June 2022 is-11.9%, 0.2%, 5.4%, respectively, which is greatly affected by the epidemic in April / May. The improvement of the efficiency of compliance distribution has been hindered to a certain extent, and the cost of compliance distribution has increased to a certain extent, so we expect 2022Q2 JD Logistics, Inc. 's revenue to increase by 5.2% to 27.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. The operating profit margin has dropped to-2.1% compared with the same period last year, but in the long run, we are still optimistic about JD Logistics, Inc. 's income stability advantage as the leader of the proprietary supply chain model.

New business: we expect the revenue of 2022Q2 JD.com 's new business to be the same as the same period last year to 7 billion yuan. The new business mainly includes JD.com production and Development, Jingxi, JD.com International and so on. In 2022, Jingxi will continue to improve the underlying supply chain and UE around efficiency and experience, and the per capita compliance cost is expected to further decline. in the future, it will continue to pay attention to building short-chain logistics and other capabilities, and strengthen the cultivation of users' consumption habits.

Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1074212658max 1477.6 billion, the net profit from its mother will be 64max 154192 billion, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.02max 4.73max 5.77, and the corresponding SOTP E will be 101x43max; according to the SOTP valuation method, we will give the total market capitalization of the JD.com Group in 2022 810 billion yuan and the corresponding target price 259 yuan / 302 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: repeated impact of the national epidemic; lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth; Internet policy regulation and valuation adjustment risk; increased competition in the retail / logistics industry; sinking market development is not as expected; platform business ecological development is not as expected; user growth is not as expected; supply chain recovery in the epidemic area is not as expected; Tencent reduction risk, and so on.

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