The epidemic affects logistics performance in the short term, and has recovered marginally since May. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, social zero fell 11.1% and 6.7% year-on-year in April and May 2022, narrowing the decline. According to the cumulative year-on-year growth rate, online retail sales of physical goods fell 5.2% in April and 7% in May compared with the same period last year, and gradually recovered. Since June, we expect a further moderate recovery in consumption as the epidemic gradually improves.
We expect the Q2 JD.com income growth rate to be affected by the epidemic, but is expected to achieve positive growth, in which the proprietary business shows relative resilience.
Differentiated categories have advantages, proprietary business shows resilience. Epidemic factors lead to short-term pressure on supply chain logistics performance. We expect JD.com to be the most affected by the epidemic in April and recover in May. Since June, with the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of logistics, JD.com 's income is expected to grow steadily. During the period of June 18, JD.com placed a total of 379.3 billion yuan in orders, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.
In terms of categories, we expect that categories such as supermarkets and household appliances perform relatively well, while non-rigid demand categories such as fashion and mobile phones are relatively weak. From the business model, thanks to the relatively perfect supply chain infrastructure and category advantages, JD.com 's proprietary e-commerce business is relatively limited, and we expect Q2 proprietary business income to reflect resilience.
The advantages of the supply chain are highlighted, opening the value of the supply chain in the first year. JD.com uses "responsible supply chain" to open the first year of supply chain value, realizing online and offline resonance. In terms of logistics facilities, the warehousing and distribution system with 43 "Asia No.1" and 1400 warehouses as the core can achieve the same-day or next-day delivery of 93 per cent of districts and counties and 84 per cent of villages and towns. In terms of technological foundation, JD.com Cloud provides a solid technological infrastructure base to promote the landing of large-scale industries with digital intelligence supply chain capabilities.
During the period of June 18th, JD.com hourly shopping and JD.com went home to unite with more than 150,000 offline brick-and-mortar stores to provide real-time retail services. Dual-channel sales increased by 77% compared with the same period last year. The number of users who issued orders for hourly shopping increased by more than 4 times compared with the same period last year, and the average delivery time per unit was shortened by 4 minutes. Supply chain terminal, JD.com supermarket omni-channel business more than 27000 cooperative brands, more than 30,000 cooperative stores turnover increased five times year-on-year, driving offline entities to coruscate vitality.
Pay attention to the improvement of efficiency and keep the profit margin stable. On the retail side, the epidemic has led to an increase in performance costs, a slowdown in 3P business and an increase in super business, which has brought certain fluctuations to profit margins. In terms of the existing new business, promote the focus of Jingxi regional strategy, promote operational efficiency and improve the UE model. JD Logistics, Inc., fine operation and customer structure of the continuous improvement, will promote JD Logistics, Inc. loss narrowing. Taken together, we expect the Q2 group's non-GAAP net profit margin to be 1.8%, and the full-year net profit margin to remain robust year-on-year.
Reiterate the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's 2022-2024 revenue will be 10613xx12286x14201 billion, and the net profit of non-GAAP will be 192,246gamma 31.6 billion, an increase of 11%, 28% and 28% over the same period last year. Based on the segment valuation method, Jingdong Hong Kong stock (9618.HK) is given a target price of HK $282 / US stock (JD.O) of US $72, reiterating the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the ecological development of platform merchants is not as expected; the growth of off-site traffic is not as expected; the realization of third-party logistics is not as expected; consumers' willingness to spend is not as expected; the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected.