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京东集团-SW(09618.HK)2022Q2业绩前瞻:GMV增速逐月恢复 盈利能力保持稳健

JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) 2022Q2 performance Forecast: GMV growth returns month by month and profitability remains robust

招商證券 ·  Jul 13, 2022 16:51  · Researches

Affected by the local epidemic control, we expect the GMV growth rate of Q2 company to slow down, but with the improvement of the epidemic and the stimulus of consumption, the company's performance has gradually improved and its profitability remains robust. We expect the Q2 company's revenue to grow by 3%. The home profit margin of NONMAE GAAP is 1.8%. We maintain the strong barriers under the company's proprietary model, the sustainability of performance growth, and the continuous improvement of profitability, and maintain a "highly recommended" rating.

The closure of the epidemic has put pressure on short-term performance, self-management highlights resilience, and the company's revenue is expected to increase slightly. In April, the epidemic situation in some areas was repeated, and the static management of the closed and controlled areas reduced the efficiency of logistics implementation, and the company's GMV growth rate is expected to be negative; logistics has gradually recovered since May, and the GMV growth rate is expected to pick up; with the improvement of the epidemic in June, it is expected that the company's GMV growth rate will be close to 618%, about 10% higher than the same period last year. In terms of proprietary business, it has benefited from JD.com 's strong user reputation and efficient logistics system, with a relatively strong growth rate. In terms of platform business, affected by the lack of recovery of clothing and cosmetics categories, the growth rate is lower than the proprietary model, but better than the industry average. In terms of categories, home appliances, merchant supermarkets and health categories are expected to rebound better; clothing and cosmetics categories recover somewhat, but the overall weakness; mobile phone categories are affected by the supply side, the recovery is slow. In terms of users, the epidemic affects customer access, and the number of new active users in Q2 is expected to be lower than that in Q1. We expect Q2's overall revenue to grow by about 3%.

With emphasis on cost and expense optimization, the growth rate of NON-GAAP net interest rate is expected to be the same as that of last year. The company's revenue side was affected by the epidemic and the growth rate slowed down, while the cost side increased the additional performance costs due to its participation in Shanghai guarantee. On the other hand, the company attaches great importance to the management and control of costs and expenses, actively reduces inefficient marketing expenses, and continuously adjusts and optimizes new businesses such as Jingxi. Under multiple measures to control fees, we expect the NON-GAAP return net interest rate of Q2 company to be 1.8%, which is the same as that of the same period last year, and its profitability remains robust.

Investment advice: the company's 2022Q2 was affected by the epidemic, and its performance was under short-term pressure, but with the improvement of the epidemic, it took advantage of 618 in June and its income returned to the normal growth rate. The company's proprietary model has strong barriers and future performance growth is sustainable. We maintain the company's profit forecast and maintain a "highly recommended" rating.

Risk tips: repeated epidemic situation; weak macro consumption; intensified competition in the industry; sinking market did not meet expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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