Since May, the company's business has gradually recovered. We predict that 2022Q2 JD.com will achieve a revenue of 261.42 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period last year, with a net profit of 4.76 billion yuan and a net interest rate of 1.82%.
Strong categories stabilized the growth momentum, and income gradually recovered after the impact of the epidemic: online physical retail sales across the country fell by 0.99% in April, the epidemic in first-tier cities intensified, and the growth rate of group retail income was greater than that of the country as a whole. In May, the influence of the epidemic situation gradually weakened, the leading effect of 618 was superimposed, and the month-to-month ratio of income was improved. Although macro consumer demand has not fully recovered in June, due to the backlog of door-to-door installation demand for household appliances gradually released due to the epidemic in April-May, and the high temperature weather that began at the end of June also led to sales of household appliances such as air conditioners, we expect strong categories to stabilize the growth momentum on the income side. Revenue in June is expected to grow by about 10% year-on-year. 2022Q2 revenue will achieve low single-digit growth compared with the same period last year.
Epidemic guarantee increases the implementation cost, and the Non-GAAP net interest rate is expected to be the same as the same period last year: April-May epidemic control led to poor logistics in many places, cross-regional transportation, employee protection and other security measures lead to additional costs and expenses, we expect the 2022Q2 implementation cost to increase. The impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized businesses in 3P business has led to a slowdown in business growth, super-micro losses and other factors also have a certain negative impact on the net interest rate. However, considering that the Group focuses on reducing costs and efficiency in this quarter, strictly implementing cost and expense control, adjusting the intensity and rhythm of businesses with a longer cash realization cycle, and logistics business losses continue to narrow, we expect 2022Q2Non-GAAP net profit to remain flat in the same period, with a growth rate of about 1.82%.
A number of plans have responded to the epidemic repeatedly, and the loss reduction effect of the new business is remarkable, and the profit margin for the whole year is expected to rise steadily: at present, there are repeated signs of the epidemic in many places across the country, but since April, the group has issued a number of plans to solve problems such as the layout of the warehouse network. In terms of new business, Jingxi has shrunk significantly, and the Group has focused on reducing losses and increasing profits, so we expect profit flexibility to expand in the second half of the year and profit margins to rise steadily for the whole year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the competition pattern in the industry has intensified, and the number of company users has fallen short of Bloomberg's consensus expectations, but the company's revenue still maintains a strong resilience. We maintain our revenue forecast of 11358x12891 hip for 2022-2024. 1471.6 billion yuan. As the company will increase its logistics investment in the future, but other expenses will decline, we maintain our EPS (adjusted) forecast for the past 2022-2024 at 6.5x10.3x15.2, corresponding to a PE of 30.6 / 19.3max 13.0 times (HKD / RMB = 0.8569 / RMB = 0.85692022x07max 12 data). Although the company's continuous investment affects the company's performance in the short term, it will build a stronger and stronger competitive advantage, and we maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: platform commodity quality risk, commodity supply chain expansion risk.