The company renewed the number of places in the 22alue 23 academic year, and the enrollment number of 78000 students increased by 32%, of which 37000 undergraduate (excluding post-secondary) places increased by 46%, and 25000 of post-secondary places increased by 70%.
The reasons for the increase in school places are mainly due to ① 's implementation of the policy of "ensuring employment" and "ensuring employment", extending the educational years of the working population and enhancing the educational level of the working population, and continuously expanding the scale of higher and vocational education; the high-quality vocational-oriented courses of ② secondary education are widely welcomed by students; and the forward-looking new campus and campus expansion of ③ secondary education provide capacity guarantee for scale growth.
Prior to the announcement of secondary education, we deeply commented on its industrial significance, and the increase was not accidental, but an inevitable investment based on the deep construction of a two-track education system, raising the upper limit of vocational education, and enhancing the attractiveness of vocational education; in the future, junior college and vocational undergraduate courses are expected to continue the growth trend, open up the space for endogenous growth of vocational education, and break the capital cognition driven by mergers and acquisitions.
This time, the number of general undergraduate places exceeds expectations, and we think it reflects the advantages of the deep ploughing of the Dawan area, the forward-looking campus expansion and the quality of running a school. On the one hand, the student places plan has a strong predictability of scale growth, and the retention of four years in the student system ensures the pace of growth within many years; on the other hand, in addition to the top-down policy environment, it is also necessary to combine the indicators of the location, capacity and quality of the bottom-up school. The Dawan area has a strong advantage in running a school, thanks to the completion of the expansion of Baiyun College's active campus and the completion of the conversion of the general application department, the rapid climbing of students, the advantages of asset structure stimulate endogenous power, and the advantages are prominent.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. The increase in the number of teaching places in this time has further strengthened the confidence in investment in private vocational education, and the allocation of places has accelerated to support the investment in private education assets, fighting back against rumors such as the previous divestiture table; the plate is also gradually digesting the policy aftereffects such as double reduction and private promotion law, through positive business innovation, strengthen vocational education investment, continuously improve the quality of running schools, and enrich the supply of the industry.
We estimate that the company's FY22-24 annual income is 44.0,58.0 and 6.85 billion yuan respectively, the adjusted return net profit is 19.4,24.2 and 2.95 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.81,1.01,1.24 yuan per share, and the PE is 8.0,6.4,5.3x respectively.
Risk tips: enrollment is not as expected; mergers and acquisitions are not as expected; recurrent epidemic in local areas and other risks.