Main points of investment
Technology-driven domestic subunit vaccine emerging enterprise: Ruike Biology is a vaccine company founded in 2012, which is committed to the research, development and commercialization of subunit vaccine. the company has built a high-quality vaccine pipeline with high quality and market potential by virtue of protein engineering technology and new adjuvant technology. The company has established a comprehensive vaccine portfolio of 12 candidate vaccines covering a wide range of diseases such as cervical cancer, COVID-19, adult tuberculosis, herpes zoster, hand, foot and mouth disease and influenza. Facing the huge HPV vaccine market in China, the company has laid out five highly differentiated candidate vaccines and is expected to become one of the most comprehensive companies in the global HPV vaccine pipeline coverage, of which the recombinant nine-valent HPV vaccine (REC603) is expected to submit a BLA application in 2025. In response to the global COVID-19 epidemic, the company is accelerating the development of a highly differentiated and clinical recombinant protein vaccine ReCOV containing a new adjuvant, and a candidate vaccine R520A for mRNA COVID-19, of which ReCOV is expected to submit an EUA/BLA application in 2022.
The vaccine market has great potential, and innovation can meet clinical demand: China will be the second largest vaccine market in the world in 2020, accounting for more than 1/5 of the global market. Driven by the increased accessibility of subunit vaccines, favorable government policies, vaccine technology innovation and increased vaccination awareness, the output value of China's vaccine market has increased from 27.1 billion yuan in 2016 to 75.3 billion yuan in 2020. the compound annual growth rate is 29.1%, and is expected to reach 333.3 billion yuan in 2030 and 16.0% in 2020-2030. The market share of subunit vaccines is also expected to further increase from 55.4% in 2020 to 86.6%.
From Biotech to Biopharma, layout, research, production and marketing integration platform: the company has its own three advanced technology platforms: new adjuvant development, protein engineering and immune evaluation. These platforms enable companies to continuously discover and develop subunit vaccines and apply advanced technologies to vaccine candidates. In addition to the company's technology platform, the company's IPD system has laid a solid foundation for the company's R & D activities. Scalable production capacity and a clear commercialization roadmap to meet the needs of diversified markets. The experienced management and research team is composed of senior scientists and industry experts, backed by world-renowned investment institutions and biotechnology investment funds.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company is based on independent advantage technology, differentiation layout is not met by the market demand. With the orderly development of graded vaccine R & D pipeline and the rapid construction of domestic and foreign commercial networks, the company can grow in the future. We expect that the company's first product, ReCOV, will be submitted for EUA/BLA application and commercialized in 2022, which is expected to bring incremental performance to the company. In the follow-up, the expected approval of blockbuster products such as recombinant herpes zoster vaccine and HPV series vaccine will further accelerate the steady growth of the company's performance. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is 2.00,21.60,1.55 billion yuan respectively; the return net profit is-6.31,5.00,224 million yuan respectively; the EPS is-1.31,1.03,0.46 yuan respectively; according to the DCF model, the total valuation of the company's core pipeline development is estimated to be about 15.496 billion yuan; for the first time, it is given the rating of "prudent overweight".
Risk hints: the risk of persistent losses, the risk of R & D failure, the risk associated with additional financing, the risk of less than expected vaccine production and commercialization, the risk of changes in policy and regulatory environment, the risk of changes in the competitive pattern of the industry, etc.