Core ideas:
Q1 single-quarter revenue and core profitability growth rebounded. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China released the quarterly report for 22 years:
Revenue, PPOP and homecoming net profit increased by 6.5%, 6.1% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively, compared with 21A change-0.3pcts, + 0.6pcts,-4.6 pcts 0.6pcts Q1 single-quarter revenue and core profitability PPOP increased year-on-year, 6.5% (vs. 21Q4 PPOP 6.3%) and 6.1% (vs.
The net profit of 22Q1 vs decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease of the contribution of effective tax rate and the narrowing of interest margin, but there was a certain positive contribution to the reduction of cost-to-income ratio. In terms of operation: (1) the amount of credit is stronger than that of the same period last year, the interest-bearing assets of Q1 increased by 6.1% over the beginning of the year (vs. 21Q1), and the loans increased by 4.5% over the beginning of the year (vs. 21Q1). 4.6%)
(2) the growth of public loans was better than that of retail, and corporate loans increased by 6.1% compared with the beginning of the year (vs.
Demand for retail loans slowed, up 1.5 per cent from the beginning of the year (vs.
There was also a big increase in bill discount, an increase of 13.8% over the beginning of the year (vs. 21Q1). 26.1%).
Interest spreads remained stable and deposits grew well. The company's Q1 net interest margin is 2.10%, narrowing 1BP compared with 21A. It is estimated that the rate of return on assets is 3.43% lower than that of the previous month. Structurally, the proportion of loans and investment assets with higher returns has declined slightly, of which the proportion of loans has dropped by 0.88pcts to 59.0%, and that of investment assets by 0.78pcts to 26.0%. It is estimated that the interest payment rate of debt has increased by 5BP to 1.64% compared with 21A; structurally, deposit growth is good (22Q1VOV 5.8% vs. 21Q1GRV 3.2%), and its share has increased by 0.61pcts to 87.1%. Time deposit growth is better than demand, and time deposit has increased by 11.2% over the beginning of the year (vs. Demand deposits:-1.8 per cent); the proportion of market-oriented interbank debt decreased, the proportion of interbank debt decreased by 0.59pcts (to 10.2 per cent), and the proportion of bonds issued remained stable at 2.6 per cent.
The quality of assets remains stable. At the end of March, the company's non-performing loan ratio was 1.42%, unchanged from the previous month; provision coverage was 210%, with 4.1pcts rising from the previous month. Q1 estimates that the bad net generation rate is 0.85%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes respectively-11BP and + 38BP. At the end of March, the core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 13.43%, increasing 0.12pcts and 0.14pcts respectively compared with the same period last year and month-on-month.
Profit forecast and investment advice: it is estimated that the net profit growth rate of 22max in 23 years is 7.0%, 8.9%, 1.02 and 9.72 yuan per share, respectively, and BVPS is 8.89 and 9.72 yuan per share, respectively. The current share price of A shares corresponds to 0.54X/0.49X of 22max in 23 years. The company's four strategic layouts of "promoting the long, making up the short, strengthening the foundation and strengthening the foundation" appear, make up for the shortcomings of personal finance, give full play to the synergy effect of GBC linkage, and give A shares 0.7 times PB for 22 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 6.23 yuan per share. According to the current AH premium ratio, the reasonable value of H shares is HK $6.15 per share (using the exchange rate of 0.8397 of the Hong Kong dollar to RMB), all of them maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: (1) more-than-expected decline in economic growth; (2) significant deterioration in asset quality.