Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) 2021 Annual report and Quarterly report 2022 comments: scale advantages continue to consolidate strategic layout key breakthroughs

東北證券 · May 7, 2022 00:00 · Researches

　　报告摘要：

　　1.利润表详析：业绩增长稳健，营收增速保持稳定。（1）概况：工商银行2021 年全年营收同比增长6.81%，其中利息净收入同比增长6.79%。

　　归母净利润同比增速10.27%，2021 全年来看，业绩增长正向贡献因子有：规模、非息、拨备计提和税收，负向贡献的因子有：息差、费用。

　　2022 年一季度营收同比增长6.52%，其中利息净收入同比增长6.41%，非息收入同比增6.80%。（2）息差：2021 年全年净息差1.92%，较年中1.93%下降1bp。其中贷款收益率较上半年下降1bp，存款成本率较上半年上涨1bp。从一季度单季来看，利息净收入的环比有所下降。（3）中收：1Q22 工商银行手续费及佣金净收入同比增长1.22%，同比有所下降。

　　2. 资产负债表详析：规模优势不断巩固，一季度存贷两旺。（1）资产端：

　　从贷款总量来看，截至2022 年一季度末，贷款总额较年初增长4.53%，一季度贷款新增9356.76 亿元。从贷款结构来看，个人贷款较年初增长1.52%；对公方面，公司类贷款较年初增长6.08%。（2）负债端：截至2022年一季度末，工商银行存款总额较年初增长5.79%；一季度存款新增15309.07 亿元；存款占总负债比重较年初上升3.02pct 至82.41%。

　　3. 资产质量详析：资产质量保持稳健，风险抵补能力不断增强。（1）不良：截至2022 年一季度末，工商银行不良贷款率1.42%，与2021 年末持平，较年中下降12bp；截至2021 年末，关注类贷款占比1.99%，较2020 年末下降0.22pct。（2）逾期：截至2021 年末，工商银行逾期贷款占比1.23%，较年中下降10bp。（3）拨备：截至2022 年一季度末，拨备覆盖率209.91%，较2021 年末上升4.07pct；2021 年末拨贷比2.92%，较年中下降4bp。

　　投资建议：工商银行服务实体经济积极有为，第一个人金融银行战略持续深化，效益质量稳中向好，“强、优、大”特征持续彰显。“强”的基础更加筑牢，营业收入和净利润稳步增长；“优”的质态更加突出，资产质量保持稳健，拨备覆盖率有所上升；“大”的优势更加明显，新增存款、贷款创历年同期最好，总量领先优势进一步扩大。当前股价对应2022/2023/2024 年PB 为0.51/0.45/0.41，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：资产质量受经济超预期下滑影响，信用风险集中暴露

Summary of the report:

1. Detailed analysis of the income statement: the performance growth is steady, and the revenue growth rate remains stable. (1) Overview: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's revenue in 2021 increased by 6.81% over the same period last year, of which net interest income increased by 6.79% over the same period last year.

For the whole year of 2021, the positive contribution factors of performance growth are scale, non-interest, provision provision and tax, while the negative contribution factors are interest spread and expenses.

Revenue in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 6.52% compared with the same period last year, of which net interest income increased by 6.41% and non-interest income increased by 6.80%. (2) interest margin: the net interest margin for the whole year of 2021 is 1.92%, which is lower than that of 1.93% in the middle of the year by 1bp. Among them, the loan yield fell 1bp compared with the first half of the year, and the deposit cost rate increased by 1bp compared with the first half of the year. From the point of view of the first quarter, the net interest income has declined from the previous quarter. (3) medium income: the net income of 1Q22 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's handling fee and commission increased by 1.22% compared with the same period last year, which decreased somewhat.

two。 Detailed analysis of the balance sheet: the advantage of scale has been continuously consolidated, and deposits and loans are booming in the first quarter. (1) the asset side:

In terms of total loans, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, total loans increased by 4.53% over the beginning of the year, with an increase of 935.676 billion yuan in the first quarter. In terms of loan structure, personal loans increased by 1.52% over the beginning of the year; to the public, corporate loans increased by 6.08% compared with the beginning of the year. (2) debt side: by the end of the first quarter of 2022, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's total deposits increased by 5.79% compared with the beginning of the year; deposits increased by 1.530907 trillion yuan in the first quarter; and the proportion of deposits in total liabilities increased by 3.02pct to 82.41% compared with the beginning of the year.

3. Detailed analysis of asset quality: asset quality remains stable, and the ability to offset risks is constantly enhanced. (1) non-performing loans: by the end of the first quarter of 2022, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's non-performing loan ratio was 1.42%, the same as that at the end of 2021, down 12bp from the middle of the year; by the end of 2021, concerned loans accounted for 1.99%, down 0.22pct from the end of 2020. (2) overdue: by the end of 2021, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's overdue loans accounted for 1.23%, a decrease of 10bp compared with the middle of the year. (3) provision: by the end of the first quarter of 2022, the provision coverage rate was 209.91%, which was 4.07% higher than that at the end of 2021 and 2.92% at the end of 2021, and decreased by 4bp compared with the middle of the year.

Investment suggestion: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is active and promising in serving the real economy. The strategy of the first personal financial bank continues to deepen, the efficiency and quality is stable and good, and the characteristics of "strong, excellent and large" continue to show. The foundation of "strong" has been more solid, business income and net profit have increased steadily; the quality of "excellent" has become more prominent, the quality of assets has remained sound, and the coverage rate of provisions has increased; and the advantage of "big" has become more obvious. new deposits and loans are the best in the same period of the past year, and the total leading edge has been further expanded. The current share price corresponds to a 2022 / 2023 / 2024 PB of 0.51 / 0.45 / 0.41 for 2024, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.

Risk hint: asset quality is affected by a higher-than-expected economic decline, and credit risk is concentrated exposed.

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工商银行(601398)2021年报暨2022一季报点评：规模优势持续巩固 战略布局重点突破

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) 2021 Annual report and Quarterly report 2022 comments: scale advantages continue to consolidate strategic layout key breakthroughs

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工商银行(601398)2021年报暨2022一季报点评：规模优势持续巩固战略布局重点突破