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中国中车(601766):2021年业绩符合预期 期待机车车辆购置企稳

CRRC Corporation (601766): the performance in 2021 meets expectations and expects the purchase of locomotives and vehicles to stabilize.

中金公司 ·  Apr 2, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Performance review

2021 performance is in line with our expectations

CRRC Corporation announced his 2021 results: revenue of 225.7 billion yuan, down 0.8% from the same period last year, and net profit of 10.3 billion yuan, down 9% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.36 yuan per share. In a single quarter, 4Q21 revenue / return net profit was 81.338 billion yuan respectively, down 1% from the same period last year.

The tender of EMU decreased compared with the same period last year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin decreased compared with the same period last year. The railway equipment income in 2021 was 90.7 billion yuan, roughly the same as the same period last year, of which the revenue from locomotives / passenger cars / trucks increased by 45%, 82%, 7%, respectively, while the bidding volume of EMU continued to decrease. Bullet train revenue decreased by 24% to 41.1 billion yuan, subway vehicle delivery decreased in 2021, and urban rail related revenue decreased by 6% to 54.6 billion yuan. In addition, the revenue of the new industry in 2021 was 71.8 billion yuan, which was the same as the same period last year, while the revenue from modern services increased by 17% to 8.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in logistics and rental income. Due to the decline in the proportion of EMU business with high gross margin and the pressure on raw material costs, the comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1.7ppt to 20.6% in 2021 compared with the same period last year.

The expense rate was well controlled and the cash flow improved compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the rate of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses decreased by 0.6/0.1/0.1/0.2ppt, and the net profit margin decreased by 0.4ppt to 4.6% compared with the same period last year.

In 2021, the company had a net operating cash inflow of 20.6 billion yuan, which basically returned to the 2019 level.

Trend of development

In 2021, the number of bids for EMU decreased, and the number of orders in hand decreased compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the company delivered 744 locomotives and 1019 passenger cars, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. EMU delivered 162sets, down 32% from the same period last year, urban rail vehicles delivered 8045, down 16% from the same period last year, and the delivery volume of trucks was basically the same as the same period last year. From the perspective of on-hand orders, by the end of 2021, the company's overall orders-on-hand were 220.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% over the same period last year, mainly due to a decline in urban rail orders.

The mileage planning for railway production in 2022 is less than the same period last year, and the market demand is expected to grow steadily after that. In January 2022, the working meeting of the National Railway Group 1 pointed out that more than 3300 kilometers of new lines are planned to be put into production in 2022, of which the general speed / high-speed railway is about 1,400 kilometers each, which is 22% less than the actual mileage of production in 2021. 35%. In 2021, China's railway fixed asset investment totaled 748.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2 percent over the same period last year.

We expect that with the gradual recovery of passenger volume, the market demand for railway maintenance will be gradually released.

Profit forecast and valuation

Taking into account the raw material price pressure, we reduce the 2022 EPS forecast by 7% to 0.39 yuan, and introduce the 2023 EPS forecast of 0.43 yuan. The company's current A-share price corresponds to 2022 A-share price corresponding to 13.9-pound-12.5 times Pmax-E-E share price in 2023-- A share price corresponds to 7.0-pound 6.3-fold P-pound E. Taking into account the profit reduction, we reduce the target price of Aamp H by 5% to HK $6.18 / HK $3.52 each, corresponding to 2022 15.9x/7.7x PE and 2023 14.4x/7.0x PE, which is 11% upside from the current share price.

Risk.

National Railway Group equipment bidding is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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