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工商银行(601398):累计利润同比增速逐季度提高 资产质量改善显著

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398): the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative profit improved quarter by quarter and asset quality improved significantly.

海通證券 ·  Apr 2, 2022 10:46  · Researches

The growth rate of cumulative profit increased quarter by quarter over the same period last year, maintaining a high dividend rate. In 2021, the net profit of homecoming increased by 10.27% compared with the same period last year. 2021Q4's net profit rose 10.65 per cent year-on-year. ROE12.15%, improved 0.34pct for the whole of 2021 compared with 11.81% in the previous three quarters. The dividend per share is 0.2933 yuan, and the dividend rate is the same as the previous year at 30.9%. The core tier one capital adequacy ratio increased by 17bp to 13.31% compared with 2021Q3, achieving endogenous replenishment of capital.

Optimize the disposition of assets and control costs with the help of the advantage of absorption and reserve to stabilize the net interest margin. In 2021, the net interest margin stabilized at 2.11% compared with the first three quarters of 2021, and the net interest margin fell only by 1.92% compared with 2021H1, thanks to the company's optimization of asset disposition. In 2021, the proportion of medium-and long-term corporate loans rose to 79.8% compared with the beginning of the year, and personal loans increased by 0.2pct to 38.4% compared with the beginning of the year. At the same time, with the help of its strong deposit absorption capacity and good cost control, in the environment of fierce deposit competition, the deposit cost rate has only slightly increased to 1.62% compared with the middle of the year.

The company continues to promote the optimization and adjustment of industry credit structure, light transformation, and increase efforts to support the real economy.

The growth rate of RWA is 7.8%, which is lower than the 3.2pct growth rate of credit assets. Green loans grew by 34.4%, the total amount exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, inclusive loans grew by more than 50% for the whole year, expanding the breadth and depth of financial support for rural revitalization, and inclusive online financing products exceeded 11.0% of the total loan growth rate.

The quality of assets has improved solidly. In 2021, the non-performing rate decreased by 10bp to 1.42% compared with 2021Q3, declining quarter by quarter, of which the bad rate of corporate loans decreased by 15bp to 2.09% compared with the middle of the year, and the bad rate of personal loans remained basically stable at 0.49% compared with the middle of the year. In 2021, the provision coverage rate increased by 9.04pct to 205.84% compared with 2021Q3, increasing quarter by quarter. The overdue rate in 2021 fell by 10bp to 1.23% compared with the middle of the year. The overdue rate, overdue amount and scissors difference continued to decline. This is due to the company's in-depth development of asset quality, systematic investigation and governance of key areas, key customer risks, and increased efforts to collect and dispose of non-performing loans. The amount of write-off in 2021 accounted for 34.4% of the non-performing loans at the beginning of the period, down significantly from 50.1% at the end of 2020, and also reflected the improvement of asset quality.

Investment advice. We predict that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.01,1.09,1.17 yuan, and the growth rate of net profit will be 7.32%, 7.36% and 7.35%. According to the DDM model (see Table 2), we get the reasonable value of 5.89 yuan; according to the PB-ROE model, we value the company's 2022E PB at 0.68 times (the comparable company is 0.53 times), and the corresponding reasonable value is 6.03 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 5.89-6.03 yuan (corresponding to 2022 PE 5.81-5.95 times, peer companies corresponding to PE 4.66 times), maintaining the "better than the big market" rating.

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