The profitability of urban rail business has improved significantly. The company's revenue in 2021 was 225.732 billion yuan / year-on-year-0.85% for the coordinated development of railway equipment, urban rail and new industries, and its net profit was 10.303 billion yuan (affected by factors such as the increase in raw material costs and the decline in EMU revenue. Lower than our expected 12 billion yuan) / year-on-year-9.08%, deducted the latter 7.52 billion yuan / year-on-year-1.68%. We believe that in the long run, the outlook of the National Railway on the mileage scale of railway and high-speed rail in 2035 confirms that there is still a large demand for railway equipment in the next 15 years, the railway business is expected to maintain a steady rise, and the urban rail subway business is expected to grow rapidly. Taking into account the rising prices of raw materials, the performance forecast for 22 and 23 years is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit of return to the mother in 22 years will be 111,119 and 12.8 billion yuan, and the EPS for the year 22 will be 0.39,0.42 and 0.45 yuan, corresponding to PE of 14,13,12x. The 22-year average PE of the rail equipment comparable company is 23 times (the Wind consensus forecast). Considering that the company's profit growth rate may be lower than that of the comparable company, we give the company a 22-year target PE 19x with a target price of 7.41 yuan (the previous price is 7.98 yuan). Buy rating.
21 years of railway equipment business profitability short-term pressure, urban rail business gross profit margin continued to rise for 21 years the company's revenue is basically stable compared with the same period last year, railway equipment gross profit margin short-term pressure (raw material costs increased, EMU income share decreased), benefiting from the urban rail business quality and efficiency, collaborative integration, urban rail gross profit margin increased significantly In 21 years, the income of railway equipment, new industry, urban rail and urban infrastructure was 90.685 billion yuan, 71.821 billion yuan and 54.556 billion yuan respectively, which was + 0.22%, + 0.14% and-6.01% respectively compared with the same period last year. Gross profit margin is 23.14%, 16.60%, 20.35% respectively, compared with-1.64pct,-4.51pct, + 0.91pct.
The overall gross profit margin for 21 years is from-1.70pct to 20.57%, and the expense rate is from-0.93pct to 15.16%.
The operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 20.593 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 1113.22%, 22.625 billion yuan. The net interest rate of homing in 2021 is-0.42pct to 4.56%.
Multi-dimensional development of railway equipment, urban rail, and new industries to create a globally competitive equipment leader in the past 21 years, the company's new products, new technologies, and new business have developed rapidly: 1) Railway business: Lalin Railway opened, "Fuxing" successfully entered Tibet, 600 km / h high-speed maglev train officially off the line, "auspicious Snow Yingchun"
The intelligent "Fuxing" high-speed EMU serves the Beijing Winter Olympic Games; 2) Urban transportation: progress has been made in the "product +"system +" mode supported by digital intelligence; 3) Strategic emerging business: the first fully autonomous roof photovoltaic project, the first industry-finance interactive wind power system solution project to achieve grid-connected power generation, mining dump truck electric drive system into the large tonnage tramcar market 4) in terms of international business, the first overseas PPP Mexican Metro Line 1 project has been well implemented, "Hulk" and "Lancang" have been put into operation on the China-Laos Railway, and Foslow, the first overseas vehicle M & An enterprise, has made a breakthrough in the European market.
Risk hint: railway fixed asset investment is not as expected, railway freight incremental action is not as expected, domestic railway equipment procurement and delivery is not as expected, overseas business expansion is not as expected, the intensification of overseas epidemic has led to a decline in overseas business revenue and newly signed orders, and overseas production capacity and supply chain have been affected.