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九毛九(9922.HK)2021业绩公告点评:太二稳健扩张彰显韧性 夯实软硬实力行稳致远

Nine Maojiu (9922.HK) 2021 performance announcement comments: Taier steady expansion shows resilience, tamping soft and hard power, stable and far away.

民生證券 ·  Mar 26, 2022 00:00  · Researches

The company issued a 2021 performance announcement: revenue of 4.179 billion yuan / YoY+54.0%, in 2021 realized net profit of 340 million yuan / YoY+174%,19-21 with an annualized growth rate of 43.8 percent and an adjusted net profit of 380 million yuan / YoY+227.6%. The company opened 133 stores and closed 44 stores throughout the year. By the end of the 21st century, the total number of stores reached 470.

Taier leads the expansion of stores, showing operational resilience. In 2021, the Taier Boiled Fish with Pickled Cabbage and Chili brand is still the main store expansion. By the end of the 21st year, the number of stores reached 350. the annual contribution revenue of 3.285 billion / YoY+67.6%, accounted for 79% of the total revenue. In terms of operating data, the average turnover rate of Taier reached 3.4 times in the whole year, mainly affected by the epidemic and new stores, down from 3.8 in 2020, and the per capita consumption reached 80 yuan, which was higher than that of 79 yuan in 20 years. Although it has been repeatedly affected by the epidemic in the second half of 21 years, thanks to the continuous improvement of the company's supply chain and the continuous improvement of store operation efficiency, Taier store model shows strong business resilience: same-store sales achieved 5.7% growth, store-level operating profit margin reached 21.8%, year-on-year + 3.3pct.

The integration and optimization of Jiujiao has achieved initial results, and the chafing pot / Lai Mei grilled fish is ready to go. Jiumaojiu: in 2021, the Jiumao Nine Northwest Food brand has continued the pace of adjustment over the past 20 years, retaining only the stores in Guangdong / Hainan provinces, shortening the management radius, realizing strategic contraction / focus, and opening 1 new one / closing 16 in 21 years. Since September 2020, Jiumaojiu has launched new store models / new menus and made efforts to upgrade: the turnaround rate in 21 years has reached 1.9 times, up from 1.7 times in 2020, and the profit margin of store operation has reached 12.9%. Sales of 48 same stores have increased by 24.5% compared with the same period last year. The results of the integrated optimization strategy show that the follow-up business is gradually picking up and stabilizing, contributing to the stable performance of the company. Hot pot / Lai Beauty: hot pot is an emerging brand launched by the company in 2020, entering the East China market in 2021, encrypting stores in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, opening 7 stores / unrelated stores throughout the year, after more than a year of polishing, the hot pot store model tends to mature, the brand is likely to continue to show, beginning with the appearance of "network celebrity", is expected to enter the expansion period in the next two years. Lai Mei is a new brand launched by the company in the second half of 2021, and opened two stores in Guangzhou this year. The current brand is still in the initial stage of cultivation. In November, the main menu was updated and repositioned as Lai Mei Blue and White grilled Fish. With the continuous maturity of the model, it is expected to open a medium-and long-term growth curve for the company.

Supply chain construction continues to improve, continue to consolidate hard power. After 21 years of continuous supply chain construction, Foshan Central Kitchen has been transformed into a food processing center, and a new supply chain center has been built in South China. Due to the continuous improvement of the sea bass / sauerkraut supply chain system, the procurement cost of raw materials has been reduced and barriers have been continuously consolidated. The quality of high-standard ingredients has effectively maintained the brand image in the face of the "food safety" storm of sauerkraut since "315".

Investment suggestion: the company has both the "soft power" to build a young / fashionable catering brand and the "hard power" to build a strong China-Taiwan and supply chain. Short-and medium-term recovery is expected to drive valuation repair and continued expansion of Taier stores. Long-term to see the new brand mature into the expansion period. It is estimated that the company's annual homing net profit in 22-23-24 will be 549 million RMB 906pm 1313 million, corresponding to PE 33max 20max 14x, covering for the first time and giving it a "recommended" rating.

Risk tips: the epidemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations, shop expansion is not as expected, food safety risks, industry competition intensified.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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