FBR granular silicon is a more ideal photovoltaic polysilicon material process: the production process of photovoltaic polysilicon material is mainly based on the improved Siemens method. The improved Siemens process accounts for more than 97% of the global photovoltaic polysilicon production, but it has some shortcomings such as high energy consumption and complicated process. FBR granular polysilicon is a more ideal process pursued by industrial R & D. it not only has a simple production process, but also has three advantages: low energy consumption, continuous production and no need for crushing. Granular silicon can also help reduce carbon emissions in the photovoltaic industry. According to the carbon footprint certification issued by the French Energy Agency in October 2021, the carbon footprint of the Poly Xiexin granular silicon functional unit is only 37 kg of carbon dioxide.
Poly Xiexin independent research and development + overseas mergers and acquisitions, granular silicon technology revolution industrial chain advantages: in 2010, the company relies on improved Siemens process to become the global leader of photovoltaic silicon materials, dare to innovate, and make every effort to promote the research and development of a new generation of granular silicon technology. Driven by independent research and development and overseas mergers and acquisitions, the company finally achieved stable mass production of granular silicon products in 2019. At present, the company's photovoltaic granular silicon production capacity has increased to 30,000 tons, far ahead of the first-mover advantage. All the quality indexes of granular silicon products have reached the index of Siemens densification, and some of them are better than those of densification, with an investment of more than 700 million yuan per 10,000 tons and a comprehensive power consumption of about 18kWh/kg. The use of granular silicon also further reduces the production cost of downstream customers' single crystal products, and the cost of crystal growth can be reduced by up to 20%. The market expansion effect is remarkable, and the order volume of polysilicon products (including granular silicon) accumulated by the company in 2021 is close to 600000 tons. In the future global "carbon peak, carbon neutralization" trend, granular silicon products will have more international competitive strength.
Actively solve the capacity bottleneck and open up a new space for the commercialization of CCZ: under the background of photovoltaic expansion in 2020, the expansion of silicon is seriously lagging behind, and the supply of silicon is tight, which promotes the acceptance of new technology granular silicon by downstream customers. Capacity bottleneck is the core contradiction of the current development, the company makes every effort to speed up the production capacity construction of Xuzhou, Leshan and Baotou.
After the shortage of silicon supply is solved, the advantages of granular silicon products will be highlighted, and the company's market share in photovoltaic silicon is expected to increase rapidly. In addition, granular silicon is the key link of CCZ technology (ultimate Czochralski single crystal technology). The company actively develops independently in the commercialization of CCZ, and obtains the fifth generation CCZ Czochralski single crystal technology and assets through acquisition, which is expected to further open the imagination space for CCZ commercialization in the future.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we maintain the forecast of the company's 2021-2023 net profit of 52.86,62.90 and 7.025 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.20,0.23,0.26 yuan. Based on the relative valuation and absolute results, we raised the target price of Poly Xiexin Energy to HK $4.50 (PE is 16x in 2022). Based on the current tight supply balance of the silicon industry and the company's breakthroughs in granular silicon technology, we are optimistic that the company's performance in 2021 will reverse the past decline, enter a new round of growth cycle, and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk hints: industry fluctuation risk; order fulfillment risk; risk of loss of core technical personnel; risks such as technology substitution, underproduction of fund-raising projects, etc.