Event description
The company issued a positive profit forecast for 2021, which is expected to realize profit and comprehensive income for the whole year / adjusted net profit 50.24 million 55.53 yuan 51.80 billion 5.709 billion yuan, with an increase of 109.3%, 131.4%, 33.0% and 46.6%.
Event comment
It is firmly optimistic that the trend of rapid growth overseas will continue, and the domestic market remains to be seen. It is estimated that the adjusted net profit of Si Moore 21 single Q4 is 956-1.484 billion yuan; the year-on-year change is-33%-14.84%; among them, 1) the domestic market is expected to be under pressure periodically. At present, China is still in the transition period before the promulgation of regulatory rules: the normal production and operation activities of the current industry remain unchanged, do not invest in new e-cigarette production and operation enterprises for the time being. The existing main body of e-cigarette production and operation shall not build or expand its production capacity, set up new e-cigarette retail outlets or list new products, and suspend the import of new e-cigarettes. Under the expectation of tightening policy, the demand for inventory at the terminal is reduced; and the promotion of brands in China is restricted; 2) although the overseas market slows down, the growth continues. According to Nielsen data, VUSE/NJOY sales changed by + 8% in November compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down compared with the third quarter. We judge that the main reason is 1) PMTA has not yet issued a ceramic atomizer license, and the relevant brands are more cautious about terminal promotion. 2) seasonal factors also disturb the order. Looking forward to the future, we are firmly optimistic about the rapid growth momentum of overseas markets: 1) with the clarity of overseas policies and the consolidation of Smallville's new products on competitiveness, the headline trend is gradually highlighted; 2) the global penetration rate of atomized smoke is still at a low level; the domestic market is uncertain when considering the intensity of follow-up policy regulation, and the market trend still needs to be observed.
Seymour has released a new generation of ultra-thin electronic atomization solution FEELM Air, which has been greatly improved by technology upgrades.
FEELM Air adopts 7-layer composite heating film (film thickness reduced from 80 μ m to 2 μ m), linear motor (placed on smoking set) to enhance "human-computer interaction" experience, MEMS sensor technology (placed on smoking set) instead of traditional head to provide more sensitive and reliable air flow control, super energy management system to improve charging speed and battery life. Realization: 1) experience improvement: including lighter and thinner products (refer to the fourth generation). The thickness is reduced by 25%, the anti-leakage performance is improved by 237%, the taste reduction is increased by 33%, the energy efficiency is increased by 13%, and the battery life / charging speed is optimized. 2) stronger harm reduction: heavy metal damage reduction increased by 79%, aldehyde and ketone damage reduction increased by 81%. Through the new technology path, the new product is expected to accelerate the increase of the company's market share, accompanied by the release of disposable e-cigarette products, focusing on the promotion of new products and the acquisition of new customers.
The high growth of the new tobacco industry may continue, and the share and profits of technology leader Seymour are expected to rise. The new type of tobacco has the attribute of harm reduction and easy to accept taste, and the future may be the long-term evolution direction of the tobacco industry. With the improvement of laws and regulations / tax system and the cultivation of consumption habits, the industry may continue to grow rapidly. As a technology leader in the e-cigarette industry, Si Moore's "feelm" atomization core has strong product competitiveness. At present, it is deeply bound to the world's excellent e-cigarette brands, which will be accompanied by downstream customer market integration to increase its share. At the same time, benefiting from the increase in the proportion of ceramic atomization products with high profit margins, the company's net interest rate may continue to rise, we expect the 2021-2023 net profit of Smallville to be 100 million yuan, respectively, EPS is 0.88 EPS 1.08 pound 1.32 yuan, the corresponding valuation is 34pm 28x23X, continue to give the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. The new tobacco policy has been substantially tightened.
2. Major breakthroughs in competitor technology