share_log

思摩尔国际(6969.HK):21年业绩符合预期 22年海内外亮点颇丰

Smore International (6969.HK): The results for the year 21 were in line with expectations, and there were plenty of highlights at home and abroad in '22

浙商證券 ·  Jan 23, 2022 00:00

Report guide

The company issues a forecast for 2021 results: total net profit and consolidated income in 2021 will increase by 109.3% 131.4% over 2020 to 50.24-5.553 billion yuan. During the period, the non-recurrent loss was 156 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit increased by 33.0%, 46.6% to 51.79-5.708 billion yuan. We estimate that the adjusted net profit of Q4 in the single quarter is 9.55-1.484 billion yuan, year-on-year-33% profit 4%, Q3-23.54% profit 18.82%, and the performance is in line with expectations.

Main points of investment

The growth rate of the performance during the policy transition period has slowed slightly, looking forward to stabilizing in 22 years. According to our forecast, assuming the adjusted net interest rate remains around 40%, 21Q4 revenue is about 24-3.7 billion yuan. From the point of view of the forecast growth center, 21Q4's revenue is about 3.05 billion yuan (- 6%) and adjusted net profit is about 1.22 billion yuan (- 15%). The slight decrease in revenue growth is mainly due to the weak month-on-month performance of domestic business shipments, the cautious performance of all parties in the industry during the policy transition period, the weakening willingness to take goods downstream, the postponement of brand development of new products, and the main purpose of all parties is to digest inventory. Looking forward to 22 years, strict supervision of domestic business is essentially conducive to the healthy development of the industry, the trend of market concentration to the leader is clear, optimistic about the share of core customers such as Yueke, and the share of Si Moore as a core supplier is expected to continue to increase.

Overseas: Vuse continues to outperform the industry, PMTA's positive share is concentrated overseas, and the growth rate of the industry is under pressure after the ban. According to Nielsen data, the 21Q4 industry has a negative growth, but Vuse still achieves a good growth rate. The number of monthly shipments on 10-11-12 in 21 years is + 18%, + 10%, + 5%, significantly better than the industry. In addition, 21Q4 Vuse Solo has been PMTA's first allowed sales order, it is expected that 22 years PMTA will continue to orderly promote audit, good leading share concentration, Smoore International Holdings Limited is expected to fully benefit.

Increment: with the release of new technology FEELM Air, the company is expected to release the latest generation of atomization solution FEELM Air, which will improve product performance in many dimensions and is expected to be preferred by major customers. The new technology will be more attractive to new brands or products to be submitted to PMTA, which will help the company to develop new customers. At the same time, due to the increase in added value, new technologies are expected to push profit margins up. In addition, the company cut into a small smoke track, currently has customer reserves, is expected to release capacity in 22 years.

There are many bright spots in business at home and abroad in the past 22 years, and we continue to be optimistic about the growth of key customers in foreign markets under high-tech barriers, such as British American Tobacco PLC, who set higher growth targets, and are expected to further increase their share with new technology; with clear domestic regulation and accelerated concentration of leading share, Si Moore's share as a core supplier is expected to continue to increase; in addition, disposable small cigarette products began to be sold in 22 years. Overall, the company has a lot of bright spots in the past 22 years, and continues to be optimistic about the growth under high-tech barriers. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 133.07 yuan, 170.63 yuan and 21.703 billion yuan in 21-23 years, an increase of 32.94%, 28.22% and 27.20%. The return net profit is 54.49,69.22 and 8.822 billion yuan, up 39.95%, 27.04% and 27.44% respectively, corresponding to the PE of 33.52X, 25.90X and 20.33X, respectively. At present, it is very cost-effective and maintains the buying rating.

Risk hint

Policy impact intensifies, customer expansion falls short of expectations, new technology promotion falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment