2021Q4 outlook: in terms of revenue, we expect 21Q4 Kuaishou Technology Technology to achieve a total revenue of 23.15 billion yuan (compared with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 23.12 billion yuan), an increase of 27.9% over the same period last year; of which, 1) the live broadcast reward is expected to be 8.14 billion yuan (yoy+3.0%,qoq+5.3%); 2) online marketing 12.73 billion yuan, (yoy+49.6%,qoq+16.7%). 3) other (mainly e-commerce) 2.28 billion yuan (yoy+35.1%,qoq+22.5%). In terms of costs, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of 21Q4 Kuaishou Technology is 41.5%, which is stable compared with the previous month, and the sales / management / R & D expense rates are 48.5%, 4.3% and 20.2% respectively, and the improvement is expected to be achieved compared with the previous month. In terms of net profit and loss, 21Q4 is expected to have an adjusted net loss of 5.36 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit and loss rate of-23.2%.
Users and overseas: the number of users and operational efficiency are stable, overseas start commercialization. 1) the improvement of user acquisition and retention efficiency brought about by organizational structure adjustment is expected to be maintained. According to Aurora Mobile Limited data, 21Q4 Kuaishou Technology Express Edition users increased significantly, the average DAU (as of 2021-12-22) 148 million (yoy+38.6%,qoq+3.4%), DAU has exceeded the main station. We estimate that the average DAU/MAU of 21Q4 Kuaishou Technology's application will reach 32,000,000 (yoy+18%/+20%,qoq-0.1%/-0.4%) respectively, which is stable compared with the previous month; the average daily use time of each DAU is 116.9 minutes (yoy+30%,qoq-1.9%), which is a steady growth over the same period last year; and the sales cost required to maintain a single MAU is 19.7 yuan per person, which is relatively low compared with 21H1. 2) Kuaishou Technology's overseas app ranking is still in the forefront of sub-sectors, focusing on existing emerging market users and starting overseas commercialization. Kuaishou Technology has started a live e-commerce test in Brazil and is expected to gradually become adept at realizing the business model overseas.
Commercialization: online marketing & e-commerce releases value, and the potential of local life is promising. 1) online marketing: traffic growth helps advertising business maintain its growth resilience. It is estimated that the total usage time of Kuaishou Technology 21Q4 will increase by about 53% compared with the same period last year, superimposed by the increase in the contribution of circular advertising during the peak season of e-commerce, providing growth momentum for the advertising business. Magnetic Taurus one-stop e-commerce solution helps businesses speed up, brand advertising is an important advantage of Kuaishou Technology online marketing.
2) E-commerce: continuously strengthen the trust strategy of e-commerce and service providers, and the high popularity of 116quality shopping festival drives the growth of GMV. It is estimated that the 21Q4 Kuaishou Technology e-commerce GMV will reach 215 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the same period last year. GMV for the whole year is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan. The 21Q4 monetization rate is expected to remain stable at 1.1%, and the future rebate rate is expected to gradually decline, leading to an increase in monetization rate. 3) Live reward: the average monthly ARPPU is expected to increase, promoting the growth of live reward revenue again compared with the same period last year. Kuaishou Technology will increase trade union cooperation to promote the specialization of anchors, and the frequency and amount of rewards for users are expected to increase. 4) Local life: Kuaishou Technology has strong content and strong traffic, Meituan has strong performance, and businessmen are rich in resources, so they have joined forces to open up Kuaishou Technology's imagination space for the commercialization of local life.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we expect Kuaishou Technology's live reward business to return to positive growth, e-commerce and advertising to maintain growth resilience, and improve the efficiency of user acquisition and retention after organizational structure adjustment. Considering that the overall growth of the advertising industry may be under pressure, the company's revenue forecast for 2021-23 will be reduced to 797 million 1016company. compared with the last time, it will be-0.3%, 8.0%, 9.6%, respectively, considering the company's cooperation with Meituan to open up the imagination of local life, while reducing costs and improving efficiency has achieved results. after adjustment, the net loss rate is expected to continue to narrow in 22 years, the fundamental inflection point is now, and the target price will be maintained at HK $145.5. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of lower-than-expected user growth, the lower-than-expected growth of advertising revenue, the uncertain risk of overseas expansion, and the less-than-expected risk of e-commerce monetization progress.