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快手-W(01024.HK):在当前时点 我们如何看待快手的价值?

Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK): how do we view the value of Kuaishou Technology at the present time?

東北證券 ·  Jan 17, 2022 00:00

Summary of the report:

This report will review Kuaishou Technology's development in 2021 and look forward to its development in 2022 from the three dimensions of content community, online marketing and live e-commerce. We observe that Kuaishou Technology is accelerating the iterative and commercial change of the content side based on the private domain basic disk, effectively driving the continuous improvement of the company's fundamentals:

Content community: we believe that Kuaishou Technology has established a clear and effective content strategy and a product strategy to stick to social relationships, which is expected to bring long-term native traffic growth to the platform and constantly realize the transformation and precipitation of users from MAU to DAU. Kuaishou Technology actively develops differentiated vertical categories with skits and sports as the core. The growth of user scale and duration, and the optimization of operating costs per user have achieved remarkable results since 21Q3. We expect 21Q4 to maintain a level, driven by the superimposed content of the 22Q1 Winter Olympics, and it is expected that 22-year fast hand traffic will continue to grow steadily, and the medium-and long-term goal of DAU will remain unchanged.

Online marketing: we believe that "New Market Commerce" reshaping public and private business flows will drive Kuaishou Technology's advertising to realize efficient operation, the continuous enrichment of marketing tools and the continuous expansion of advertising space, especially the launch of Magnetic Taurus and the optimization of search advertisements. It is expected to bring both volume and price increases for Kuaishou Technology's advertising revenue. In the short term, although policy regulation disturbs both supply and demand on the advertising side, we believe that changes on the demand side are generally controllable, and e-commerce, new consumption and other industries are expected to increase advertising demand; and Kuaishou Technology as a nearly 600 million monthly active flow pool, its increasingly obvious channel advantages and continuous optimization of algorithm capabilities are expected to eliminate the impact, advertising will still be the core growth momentum of Kuaishou Technology's commercialization. Considering the strong demand for external and internal circular advertising of 21Q4 e-commerce, it is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 50% +; the growth of long-term traffic and the increment of internal circular advertising will lead to the steady growth of Kuaishou Technology advertising, which still has sufficient room for growth compared with comparable platforms.

Live e-commerce: we believe that Kuaishou Technology's "trust in e-commerce, brands and service providers" will effectively promote the continuous upgrading of Kuaishou Technology's "human and goods farm". In the short and medium term, it is expected that Kuaishou Technology's platform GMV will benefit from anchor growth, brand presence, and industrial belt endowment to maintain Kuaishou Technology's growth. It is highly uncertain to achieve the 650 billion target in 2021, and it is still expected to grow by about 40% in 2022. In the long run, Kuaishou Technology's cornerstone users represent the core force of China's consumption upgrading, and the penetration rate still has a lot of room to improve.

Investment suggestion: we expect that with the continuous deepening of Kuaishou Technology's organizational change, the development path of corporate differentiation will be further clear. although there are external policy disturbances in the short term, the long-term investment value of the company will remain unchanged. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 797.33 million yuan, 123.782 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit will be-181.56 CPY 67.54 billion yuan, respectively, which will continue to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hints: lower-than-expected user growth, increased competition in the industry, and policy regulatory risks

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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