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快手-W(01024.HK)21Q4业绩前瞻:流量淡季不淡 提效控费超预期

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) 21Q4 Performance Forecast: Traffic in the off-season, efficiency and fee control exceeded expectations

天風證券 ·  Jan 16, 2022 00:00

We expect Kuaishou Technology Q4 to achieve an operating income of 22.9 billion, an increase of 26.5% over the same period last year. The adjusted net loss is 4 billion yuan, corresponding to an adjusted net loss rate of 17.6%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 5.8pct. This is mainly because we expect that the control of the three expense rates under the efficiency control fee will be better than expected.

Traffic end: the number of active users is expected to be relatively stable during the off-season. According to QM data, the DAU of 4Q21 Kuaishou Technology's main site is 215 million, year-on-year-4.5%, month-on-month-4.3%; extreme version DAU1.22 billion, year-on-year + 41.5%, month-on-month + 4.4%. In terms of duration, the average daily use time of 4Q21 Kuaishou Technology DAU increased by 16.6% year-on-year to 106.7 minutes, the average daily DAU use time in the fourth quarter was higher than Douyin's 101.5 minutes, and the average daily use time of extreme version DAU reached 99.3 minutes compared with the same period last year.

Commercialization: advertising is basically in line with expectations, and we judge that 650 billion GMV of e-commerce is basically stress-free for the whole year.

In terms of online marketing, we expect the company's Q4 advertising revenue to continue its high growth trend from + 50% to 12.77 billion compared with the same period last year. We believe that this is mainly benefited from three aspects: 1) the traffic end is not weak in the off-season, providing advertising capacity support for online marketing business; 2) the current advertising loading rate of the company still has room to improve compared with the same industry; 3) under the background that some advertisers are affected by policies to reduce advertising, benefiting from the rapid growth of the company's e-commerce business GMV, internal circulation advertising has brought relatively strong growth resilience for the company.

In terms of live broadcast reward, we expect the company's Q4 live broadcast revenue to grow 1.7% year-on-year to 8.03 billion yuan, or 4% month-on-month growth. We believe that live broadcast revenue mainly benefits from the increase in traffic and the strengthening of supply-side ecological construction, which brings about an increase in the supply of high-quality content.

For live e-commerce, we expect the company's Q4 GMV to grow by 18.7% year-on-year to 210 billion. The monetization rate is stable at 1%, and other income is + 24.6% to 2.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. We believe that this mainly benefits from the following three aspects: 1) under the trend of brands, we expect that the increase in brand goods will help to increase the unit price of customers. From January to November 2021, the number of brands increased by 186.1%, and the number of brand self-broadcast GMV increased by 841%. 2) under the trend of developing the strategy of service providers and the increasing number of resident merchants, the supply of goods and content is increasing, and the algorithm optimization of superimposed human-goods matching capability will help to meet the needs of more and faster buyers. so as to increase the penetration of active buyers among active users. 3) the mode of great trust in e-commerce and high repurchase contributes to the continuous increase in the frequency of placing orders.

Profit side: the improvement of performance control fees has achieved initial results, and the adjusted net loss of Non-Gaap has narrowed more than expected.

Considering the service provider / magnetic clustered star share, we expect the company's Q4 gross profit margin to be 41%, slightly lower than the previous month.

Mainly on the cost side, we expect the absolute value of sales / R & D / management expenses to remain basically unchanged, which is 100 million yuan in 110-42-9, and the corresponding sales / R & D / management expense rates are 48%, 18% and 4% respectively. We believe that this is mainly related to the improvement of operational efficiency after the major adjustment of Kuaishou Technology's organizational structure.

Investment suggestion: based on the fact that the company's ability to improve and control fees is more likely than expected after the adjustment of the company's organizational structure, we adjust the original profit forecast and adjust the company's income from RMB 799,1068x1374 billion in 2021-2023 to RMB137.4 billion in revenue of 796x1068pm, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 35%, 34% and 29%. The adjusted net profit is adjusted from-204max 164max to-185max 188.8 billion yuan, and the loss is gradually narrowed. In terms of PUBG S, it corresponds to 4.8x/3.6x/2.8x, respectively, and maintains a "buy" rating.

Risk hints: drastic market changes, Internet regulatory risks, lower-than-expected operating capacity, risks in subjective calculation, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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