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快手-W(01024.HK):用户数环比稳定 销售费率有望改善

Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK): the sales rate is expected to be improved when the number of users is stable.

東方證券 ·  Jan 14, 2022 15:26

Core point of view

Kuaishou Technology has a unique and differentiated community atmosphere, and the number and duration of users from a long-term perspective will remain stable. Kuaishou Technology's "old friend" atmosphere is unique, and there is a strong trust connection between users and talent. The data prove that the repurchase rate of e-commerce users in the next month is as high as 70%. And the proportion of fan purchases is very high-some Kuaishou Technology talents account for about 90% of their turnover. We believe that although the product design has been adjusted, Kuaishou Technology community ecology has always maintained its own characteristics, and its differences determine the stability of long-term users of the platform. We expect 4Q21 DAU yoy+ to 322 million; per capita daily time is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, yoy+32% to 118.7 minutes.

Advertising and live broadcast revenue growth remained steady. The fourth quarter is the peak season for e-commerce, we expect that under the pull of e-commerce business, the company's 4Q21 advertising revenue is expected to achieve 13.1 billion yuan (yoy+54%). The company tries to increase the exposure of live broadcast in the public domain, and we expect the growth rate of live broadcast reward revenue from the same period last year to reach 7.9 billion yuan.

E-commerce strategy is clear: talent trust e-commerce is the cornerstone, "big service providers" to help brand e-commerce. We believe that the trust e-commerce ecology of strong transformation and high repurchase is the core advantage of Kuaishou Technology e-commerce. The platform has launched a variety of trust tools such as "small store trust card" to consolidate the e-commerce advantage. In terms of brands, the platform vigorously introduces a more professional team of service providers in e-commerce operation and marketing to help brands grow. We estimate that the company's e-commerce GMV for the whole year of 2021 will reach 670 billion (yoy+76%).

The competition pattern of short video is slowing down, and the company's marketing expenses are expected to be reduced. The era of extensive buying in the short video industry has passed. We expect that all platforms will pay more attention to the in-depth operation of content to improve the user retention rate, and the sales expenses will not expand significantly. The company's 4Q21 sales fee is expected to be 10.4 billion yuan, and the sales fee rate for the peak season of superimposed income will be reduced to 45%. The narrowing of the rate will lead to an increase in profit margin. We expect the adjusted net profit of the company's 4Q21 to achieve-3.2 billion yuan, and the amount of loss is smaller than that of 3Q21.

Overseas investment is expected to slow. After the high investment and high growth phase of 1H21, Kuaishou Technology's overseas business began to carry out product consolidation and organizational structure challenges, and the investment slowed down. Through fine operation and deep ploughing of the advantageous market, we expect the overall overseas investment to narrow in 2022 and the company's profitability to be further released.

Profit Forecast and Investment suggestion

We forecast that the company will achieve revenue of 79.9 billion / 98.3 billion / 126.5 billion yuan in 21-23 (the original forecast is 79.6 billion / 99 billion / 127.8 billion). We use SOTP valuation: live reference company gives 22 years 0.8xPS, valuation 32.8 billion HKD; advertisement + e-commerce reference company gives 22 years 5.1xPS, valuation 4183 billion HKD, total valuation is 4511 billion HKD, target price 106.72 Hong Kong dollars per share, maintain "buy" rating.

The risk suggests that the growth of users and duration is not as expected, the cost of getting customers is increased, and the ecological growth of e-commerce is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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