share_log

快手-W(01024.HK):流量持续增长 组织调整有望提升运营效率

Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK): traffic continues to grow and organizational adjustment is expected to improve operational efficiency

興業證券 ·  Nov 28, 2021 00:00  · Researches

The high growth of advertising revenue drives the steady growth of revenue, and the effect of reducing cost and increasing efficiency is beginning to show. The company's 2021Q3 achieved operating revenue of 20.49 billion yuan, slightly higher than expected (Bloomberg unanimously expected 20.098 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, mainly driven by high advertising revenue growth (YoY+76.5%). The adjusted net profit is-4.82 billion yuan, and the adjusted net interest rate is-23.5%, a month-on-month decrease in 1.4pcts. The total traffic of the Q3 platform increased by 21.7% month-on-month, but the operating cost increased by only 3.8%. The cost reduction and efficiency effect is beginning to show, of which the proportion of sales and marketing expenses in revenue has dropped to 53.8% (QoQ-5.1pcts). It is expected that the rate of sales expenses will continue to decline.

The number of active users and duration of use increased more than expected. The average number of daily active users of 2021Q3 Kuaishou Technology app is 320 million (YoY+17.9%,QoQ+9.3%), achieving the highest month-on-month growth rate since 2020Q2, MAU5.73 billion (YoY+19.5%,QoQ+13.2%). At the same time, each daily active user uses 119.1 minutes per day (YoY+35.0%,QoQ+11.4%). The daily active users of 2021Q3 skits are 230 million, and more than 850 skits have been viewed more than 100 million. As of August 2021, Olympic-related content and videos have been viewed 73 billion times, with a total interaction of 6 billion people.

Platform traffic establishes high growth in online marketing, and brand advertisers achieve high double-digit year-on-year growth. Under the overall pressure of the advertising industry, 2021Q3's advertising revenue increased by 76.5% year-on-year to 10.9 billion yuan, driven by: 1) strong traffic growth, with an average daily traffic growth of nearly 60%; 2) Xiaodiantong and vermicelli merged into magnetic Taurus to get through the public and private domain traffic optimization customer ROI 3) continue to improve sales and service capabilities, optimize direct marketing and agency channel management, Q3 brand advertisers achieve high double-digit year-on-year growth.

E-commerce GMV is growing rapidly, and trust in e-commerce mainline remains unchanged. 2021Q3 e-commerce GMV reached 175.8 billion yuan (YoY+ 86.1% YoY+ QoQ + 20.9%), leading to a 53% year-on-year increase in other service revenue, mainly due to: 1) continue to consolidate and strengthen the trust e-commerce model, with a repurchase rate of more than 70% in September 2021. 2) Brand e-commerce has achieved preliminary results, and the proportion of GMV continues to increase; 3) the cooperation of service provider mechanism is introduced to help merchants improve their operational efficiency; 4) the contribution rate of Q3 Kuaishou Technology store to GMV has increased to 90% compared with the same period last year. Looking forward to Q4, the "116Shopping Festival" achieved good results. The number of broadcasts of Kuaishou Technology e-commerce merchants increased by 52% compared with the same period last year, and the number of brand merchants increased by 391% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual GMV will exceed 650 billion, with a monetization rate of about 1%.

Investment advice: maintain a "buy" rating. As the domestic short video and live broadcast traffic-side market gradually stabilizes, the company is expected to focus more on commercialization and cost reduction to increase efficiency, organizational restructuring will also boost the company's operational efficiency, and profitability is expected to increase quarter by quarter. Based on segment valuation and single user value valuation, we give the company a target price of HK $152.0, corresponding to a profit forecast of 4.5 times PS in 2022, and a 55.4% increase in the closing price on November 26.

Risk tips: 1) the risk of drastic changes in the market; 2) the stricter supervision of live e-commerce; 3) the decline in the prosperity of the advertising industry led to the slower-than-expected growth of online marketing; 4) the risk of improper operation of the community.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment