Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK): under the guidance of higher-than-expected profits, remain optimistic about the steady expansion of production capacity of 12 inches.

興業證券 · Nov 27, 2021 00:00

　　营收超指引，产能利用率与ASP 提升下毛利率超指引。公司21Q3 收入4.5 亿美元（指引4.1 亿），YoY+78.5%，QoQ+30.4%，得益于MCU、射频、电源管理、标准式闪存以及超级结等业务需求强劲。毛利率27.1%（指引上限27%），QoQ+2.3ppts，YoY+2.9ppts，主要得益于ASP 提升，部分被折旧抵消。整体产能利用率达110.9%，QoQ+1.4ppts，YoY+15.1ppts。归母净利5,081 万，QoQ+15%，YoY+187%。

　　通讯叠加内地需求提升，8 寸利用率持续超110%。通讯营收占比同比提升0.9ppts 至14.7%，收入YoY+90.7%，主要因CIS 及智能卡需求强劲。

　　中国地区营收占比同比提升8ppts 至73.4%，收入YoY+100.5%，主要得益于各平台产品需求增长。8 寸厂期末产能利用率达112.1%，QoQ+0.2ppts ， YoY+10.3ppts ；毛利率35.2% ， QoQ+3.6ppts ，YoY+9.8ppts。我们判断8寸利用率有望维持110%，毛利率或维持35%。

　　六大平台助推下毛利率持续攀升，22H2 将扩至9.5 万片/月。无锡12 寸厂21Q3 营收1.36 亿，QoQ+62.5%，YoY+723%，收入占比提升至30.3%。三季度末产能为5.3 万片/月，利用率108.7%，QoQ+4.6ppts，YoY+52.3ppts。毛利率8.5%，QoQ+5.2ppts，YoY+26.5ppts。目前公司产能已达到6.5 万片/月，计划在明年底扩产至9.5 万片/月。我们判断在制程向55nm 演进下12 寸ASP 或持续增长，从而带动毛利率进一步提升，预计长期稳态下可达40%。

　　21Q4 指引强劲，毛利率持续上抬至27%+。公司21Q4 指引：收入4.9 亿美元， QoQ+20% ， YoY+80% ；毛利率27%-78% ， QoQ+0.4ppts ，YoY+1.7ppts。我们认为国产本地化生产需求以及新能源车需求景气将驱动公司22 年利用率仍然维持高位，供需紧平衡下ASP 仍有上升空间。

　　投资建议：公司营收超指引上限以及8 寸/12 寸满载，反映了行业需求高景气；12 寸毛利率在产品组合优化下价逐步攀升，对冲折旧成本的增长。我们仍然看好公司作为中国头部晶圆代工厂的战略地位，此次扩产亦有助公司充分把握行业景气周期，带来业绩成长与确定性，上调公司2021 /2022 年收入预测3.6%/3.9%至15.96/21.30 亿美元，每股净资产2.12/2.31 美元。我们看好公司在景气周期下扩产对业绩带来的成长性与确定性，维持PB 估值水平3.6x，结合2022 年的预测每股净资产上调目标价9%至64.69 港元，维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：需求景气度不及预期；无锡厂产能爬坡及产品组合优化不及预期

Revenue excess guidance, capacity utilization and ASP increase under the gross profit margin excess guidance. The company's 21Q3 revenue is $450 million (guideline 410 million), and YoY+78.5%,QoQ+30.4%, benefits from strong demand for MCU, RF, power management, standard flash memory and super knots. Gross margin of 27.1% (guidance limit of 27%), QoQ+2.3ppts,YoY+2.9ppts, mainly due to the increase in ASP, partially offset by depreciation. The overall capacity utilization rate reached 110.9% QoQQ 1.4 pptsMagi YoYue 15.1 ppts. Return to the mother with a net profit of 50.81 million, QoQ+15%,YoY+187%.

Communications superimposed an increase in mainland demand, and the 8-inch utilization rate continued to exceed 110%. The share of communications revenue increased to 14.7% year-on-year, with revenue YoY+90.7%, mainly due to strong demand for CIS and smart cards.

The share of revenue in China increased to 73.4% from the same period last year, and the revenue YoY+100.5%, mainly benefited from the increase in demand for products from various platforms. The utilization rate of production capacity at the end of the 8-inch factory was 112.1%, YoY+10.3ppts, 0.2ppts, and gross profit margin was 35.2%, QoQ+3.6ppts, YoY+9.8ppts. We judge that the utilization rate of 8 inches is expected to maintain 110%, and the gross profit margin may be maintained at 35%.

With the help of six major platforms, gross profit margin continues to rise, and 22H2 will expand to 95, 000 pieces per month. Wuxi 12 inch factory 21Q3 revenue 136 million, QoQ+62.5%,YoY+723%, revenue share increased to 30.3%. At the end of the third quarter, the production capacity was 53,000 tablets per month, and the utilization rate was 108.7%. The gross profit margin is 8.5% Magi QoQichi 5.2 pptsMagna YoYue 26.5 ppts. At present, the company's production capacity has reached 65,000 pieces / month, and plans to expand production to 95,000 pieces / month by the end of next year. We judge that the 12-inch ASP may continue to grow under the evolution of the process to 55nm, which will lead to a further increase in gross profit margin, which is expected to reach 40% in the long-term steady state.

The 21Q4 guidance was strong and gross margin continued to rise to 27% +. Company 21Q4 guidelines: revenue of $490 million, QoQ+20%, YoY+80%; gross margin 27% Murray 78%, QoQ+0.4ppts, YoY+1.7ppts. We believe that domestic local production demand and new energy vehicle demand will drive the company's 22-year utilization rate to remain high, and there is still room for ASP to rise under the tight balance between supply and demand.

Investment advice: the company's revenue exceeds the upper limit of the guidelines and the 8-inch / 12-inch load reflects the high demand in the industry; the 12-inch gross profit margin gradually rises under the product portfolio optimization, offsetting the growth of the old cost. We are still optimistic about the company's strategic position as the leading fab in China, and this expansion will also help the company to fully grasp the industry business cycle and bring performance growth and certainty. The company raised its 2021 / 2022 revenue forecast of 3.6% soybean to US $2.130 million per share, with a net asset per share of US $2.1210 million. We are optimistic about the growth and certainty of the company's performance brought about by the expansion of production during the business cycle, maintain the PB valuation level of 3.6x, raise the target price by 9 per cent to HK $64.69 in line with the 2022 forecast of net assets per share, and maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the demand boom is not as good as expected; Wuxi plant capacity climbing and product portfolio optimization are not as expected.

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华虹半导体(01347.HK)：盈利超预期下指引持续乐观 12寸产能稳步扩张

Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK): under the guidance of higher-than-expected profits, remain optimistic about the steady expansion of production capacity of 12 inches.

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