维持“ 买入”评级，目标价23.00 港元：出于对拿地利润率有严格要求，公司上半年拿地节奏有所放缓，截止2021H1 总土储也有所下降。公司下半年以来拿地力度有所上升，我们认为公司的销售增长稳健，回款效率良好，当前资金储备充裕，为接下来拿地做好了准备，当前的整体土储也可供约3 年左右开发销售。另外，公司财务方面维持三道红线绿档，有息负债有15%的增长空间。我们预计公司2021/2022 年的营业收入为1752/2075 亿元，同比增长29%/18%；核心净利润为136/152 亿元，同比增长11%/12%。我们维持“买入”评级，目标价由31.00港元下调至23.00 港元，对应2021/2022 年5.0/4.5 倍PE，当前股价对应2021E 股息收益率为12.0%。
归母核心净利润同比增长12%，业绩符合预期：2021H1 公司实现营业收入734亿元人民币（下同），同比增长14%；归母核心净利润为62 亿元，同比增长12%。
毛利率为28.6%，同比下降1.6 个百分点，基本保持稳定；核心净利率为8.4%，同比下降0.2 个百分点。公司中期每股派息70 港仙，同比持平（不计2020 特别派息同比增长17%），派息总额为21 亿元，占核心净利润比例为33%。
销售进度稳步推进：公司2021 年1 至7 月实现累计销售金额和面积1749 亿元和985 万平米，同比增长25%和24%，累计销售均价为17760 元/平米。对应全年3300亿销售目标（+10%yoy），截至7 月的目标完成度为53%。上半年公司的实际去化率为64%，下半年的可售货值为3600 亿元，对应去化率达到49%即可完成全年销售目标。
上半年拿地显著减缓：2021H1 公司新增土地储备项目19 个，新增计容面积为301万平米，新增土地款为201 亿元，占销售金额的比例为13%，处于较低水平，新增拿地成本为6659 元/平米。截至期末，公司的总土地储备面积为7283 万平米，较2020 年末下降11%。
保持三道红线绿档：截至2021H1 公司的净负债率为50.9%，与2020 年末持平；现金短债比为1.7；剔除预收款的资产负债率为68.3%，处于三道红线绿档。平均融资成本为5.6%，与2020 年末持平。目前公司的账面现金为824 亿元，有息负债为1645 亿元，其中短期债务占比为27%，处于合理水平。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓；行业调控政策加严；流动性收紧；公司销售不及预期；商业及酒店经营不及预期；人民币贬值。
Maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of HK $23.00: due to strict requirements on land profit margins, the pace of land acquisition slowed in the first half of the year, and the company's total land reserves also fell as of 2021H1. The company's land acquisition efforts have increased since the second half of the year. We believe that the company's sales growth is steady, the rebate efficiency is good, the current capital reserves are abundant, and the current overall land reserves can also be developed and sold for about 3 years. In addition, the company's financial aspects maintain three red lines and green bands, and there is room for 15% growth in interest-bearing liabilities. We estimate that the company's operating income in 2022 will be 1752,207.5 billion yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year. The core net profit will be 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% and 12% over the same period last year. We maintain our "buy" rating, lowering our target price from HK $31.00 to HK $23.00, corresponding to a dividend yield of 12.0% for the current share price corresponding to 2021E dividend yield of 4.5 times PE for 202111.
The core net profit of home ownership increased by 12% over the same period last year, and the performance was in line with expectations: 2021H1 achieved an operating income of 73.4 billion yuan (the same below), an increase of 14% over the same period last year; the core net profit of home ownership was 6.2 billion yuan, up 12% from the same period last year.
The gross profit margin was 28.6%, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year, which remained basically stable; the core net profit margin was 8.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. The company paid an interim dividend of HK70 cents per share, unchanged from the same period last year (excluding 2020 special dividend up 17% year-on-year), with a total dividend of 2.1 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of the core net profit.
Steady progress in sales: from January to July 2021, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 174.9 billion yuan and an area of 9.85 million square meters, an increase of 25% and 24% over the same period last year, with a cumulative average sales price of 17760 yuan per square meter. Corresponding to the annual sales target of 330 billion (+ 10%yoy), the target completion rate as of July is 53%. The actual removal rate of the company in the first half of the year is 64%, and the salable value in the second half of the year is 360 billion yuan. The annual sales target can be achieved if the corresponding removal rate reaches 49%.
Land acquisition slowed down significantly in the first half of the year: 2021H1 added 19 new land reserve projects, a new capacity area of 3.01 million square meters, and a new land grant of 20.1 billion yuan, accounting for 13% of the sales amount, which is at a low level, with a new land acquisition cost of 6659 yuan per square meter. At the end of the period, the company's total land reserve area was 7283 million square meters, down 11% from the end of 2020.
Keep three red lines in green gear: as of 2021H1, the net debt ratio was 50.9%, the same as at the end of 2020; the cash-to-short debt ratio was 1.7; and the asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts was 68.3%, which was in the three red lines. The average financing cost is 5.6%, the same as at the end of 2020. At present, the company's paper cash is 82.4 billion yuan, interest-bearing liabilities are 164.5 billion yuan, of which short-term debt accounts for 27%, which is at a reasonable level.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth slows; industry regulation and control policies tighten; liquidity tightens; company sales fall short of expectations; business and hotel operations fall short of expectations; RMB depreciates.
