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郭明錤电⼦研究 台扬 2022 年营运动能可望同时受益于 O-RAN 与低 轨道卫星通讯两⼤网路产业关键趋势;营收可望⾃ 9 ⽉开始显著增强

郭明錤電⼦研究 臺揚 2022 年營運動能可望同時受益於 O-RAN 與低 軌道衛星通訊兩⼤網路產業關鍵趨勢;營收可望⾃ 9 ⽉開始顯著增強

天風國際 ·  2021/08/30 18:22

郭明錤電⼦研究

臺揚 2022 年營運動能可望同時受益於 O-RAN 與低軌道衛星通訊兩⼤網路產業關鍵趨勢;營收可望⾃ 9⽉開始顯著增強

2022年網路技術關鍵趨勢包括O-RAN與低軌道衛星通訊,就硬體投資的⾓度⽽⾔,我們認爲若有供應商符合下列 3 個條件,則值得投資⼈關注,包括:1) 同時擁有 ORAN 與低軌道衛星的訂單、2) ⾄少 O-RAN 與低軌道衛星訂單對 2022 年的營收與利潤有顯著貢獻、與 3) 受惠於 O-RAN 或低軌道衛星訂單,2022 年的獲利能較 2021 年成長 100% YoY 以上。我們最新的調查顯⽰,臺揚爲少數符合上述 3 個條件的供應商。我們預測臺揚營收⾃ 9 ⽉開始有顯著 YoY 成長,⽽若出貨順利且無嚴重零組件缺料問題,則 2021 與 2022 年的 EPS (NTD) 可望分別達 1.2–1.7 元與 5.5–6.5 元。

O-RAN 與低軌道衛星爲 2022 年網路產業兩⼤主要趨勢,爲未來電⼦業關鍵基礎建設。

(1) O-RAN 爲電信運營商欲進⼀步降低 5G 基礎建設成本的其中⼀個好⽅案。

(2) 毫米波的⾼頻關與低延遲可望與未來硬體產品整合並提供創新使者體驗,但毫米波的基礎建設成本顯著⾼於 Sub-6 GHz,故我們預測⾃ 2022 年開始 ORAN 具備的低成本優勢將有助於運營商部署毫米波基礎建設。

2. 我們預期在 SpaceX 與 Apple 等公司推廣下,低軌道衛星的服務與相關零組件出貨將在 2022 年迅速成長。我們相信低軌道衛星通訊服務具備的隨時連線特⾊,可望提升硬體產品的使⽤者體驗 (如:⼿機、IoT 與電動⾞等)。

臺揚開發與出貨 O-RAN 的挑戰⽬前已逐漸克服,預計⾃ 9–10 ⽉開始⼤量出貨 Dish RU並對營收將有顯著貢獻。我們最新的研究指出,臺揚已取得 Kyocera 的毫米波 O-RAN陣列天線訂單,預計在 4Q21–1Q22 完成技術驗證並在 2022 年⼤量出貨。

  1. 臺揚開發與出貨 O-RAN 挑戰包括:1) DU 軟體、2) 雙⼯器 (Diplexer) 的互調⼲擾 (Intermodulation interference)、與 3) Infineon 控制器缺貨。

  2. 臺揚已克服上述挑戰並預計⾃ 9–10 ⽉開始⼤量出貨 Dish RU,預估 4Q21–1Q22 ⽉營收均可顯著成長 50–100% YoY,2021 年 EPS 可望達 1.2–1.7 元。

  3. 臺揚預計在 2022 年開始⼤量出貨樂天/NEC 與 JMA 的 O-RAN RU。受惠於 ORAN 訂單,臺揚 2022 年EPS 可望達 5.5–6.5 元。

  4. 臺揚預計在 2022 年開始出貨毫米波 O-RAN 陣列天線訂單。我們預期臺揚的毫米波 O-RAN 訂單將⾃ 2022–2023 年開始成長。

低軌道衛星通訊的服務供應商可望在未來數年業績⼤幅成長。在硬體供應鏈投資機會⽅⾯,因⽬前⽀援低軌道衛星通訊的智慧型⼿機並無顯著規格升級,故投資焦點爲衛星端與接收端。不過,我們認爲智慧型⼿機⽀援低軌道衛星服務,可望加速整體產業成長。

  1. 臺揚另⼀新事業重點爲低軌道衛星,主要針對上網服務商,⽽非語⾳服務商。

  2. ⽬前低軌道衛星服務的上網服務商中,領導廠商爲SpaceX,預計發射數量衛星數量爲 1.2 萬顆。其他關鍵廠商包括 Amazon (Kuiper) (預計發射約 3,200 顆衛星)、OneWeb (預計發射約 7,000 顆衛星) 與 Kymeta。臺揚⽬前的訂單主要來⾃ OneWeb 與 Kymeta。

  3. 我們預測臺揚低軌道衛星事業對營收與利潤的貢獻將⾃ 2023 年開始顯著成長。

投資建議:

臺揚 5G O-RAN RU 出貨⾃ 2H21 起強勁增長,重返 20 年前榮耀並非遙不可期。

風險提⽰:

新產品⽣產遞延或市場需求不如預期。

Ming-Chi Tech Research

MTI's 2022 growth momentum to benefit from two critical trends of the network industry, O-RAN, and LEO; revenue to boost starting September

From a hardware investment perspective, we believe it is worthwhile for investors to look at suppliers that meet the following three criteria: 1) have orders for both O-RAN and low earth orbit (LEO) satellite, 2) have at least one O-RAN and LEO order that will contribute significantly to revenue and profit in 2022, and 3) benefit from O-RAN or LEO orders that can grow 100% YoY or more in terms of profit in 2022 vs. 2021. Our latest survey indicates that MTI is one of the few suppliers that meet all three criteria. As a result, we forecast that MTI's revenue will grow significantly YoY starting in September. In addition, if shipments go smoothly and there are no serious component shortages, we expect EPS (NTD) to reach $1.2–1.7 and $5.5–6.5 in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

O-RAN and LEO are the two major trends in the network industry in 2022, both of which are critical infrastructures for the future of the electronics industry.

  1. 1. The key to 5G infrastructure in 2022 will be cost reduction and increased mmWave coverage.

    (1) O-RAN is one of the best solutions for operators to further reduce the cost of 5G infrastructure deployment.

    (2) The large bandwidth and low latency of mmWave will integrate with future hardware products and provide an innovative user experience. However, the infrastructure cost of mmWave is significantly higher than sub-6 GHz, so we predict that the low-cost advantage of O-RAN will help operators deploy mmWave infrastructure starting in 2022..

  2. We expect LEO services and related component shipments to grow rapidly in 2022, driven by companies such as SpaceX and Apple. We believe that the always-on connectivity of LEO services will enhance the user experience of hardware products (e.g., cell phones, IoT, and EVs).

MTI is now overcoming the challenges of developing and shipping O-RANs and expects to start mass shipments of Dish RUs in September–October with a significant contribution to revenue. Our latest survey indicates that MTI has secured Kyocera's mmWave O-RAN phased array antenna orders and expects to pass technology qualification in 4Q21–1Q22 and start mass shipments in 2022.

  1. MTI's O-RAN development and shipment challenges include: 1) DU software, 2) intermodulation interference of the diplexer, and 3) Infineon controller supply shortage.

  2. MTI has overcome the above challenges and expects to start mass shipments of Dish RU from September to October. We estimate that MTI's monthly revenue will grow significantly by 50–100% YoY from 4Q21 to 1Q22, thanks to the shipment of Dish RU. We estimate MTI’s EPS will reach $1.2–1.7 in 2021.

  3. MTI will start mass shipments of Rakuten/NEC and JMA O-RAN RU in 2022. Thanks to O-RAN orders, we predict that MTI's 2022 EPS will reach $5.5–6.5.

  4. MTI will start shipping the mmWave O-RAN phased array antenna in 2022. We expect MTI's mmWave O-RAN orders to begin growing from 2022–2023.

We expect that LEO satellite communication service providers will have significant growth in the coming years. Regarding hardware supply chain investment opportunities, as there is no significant upgrade in the specifications of current smartphones supporting LEO satellite communications, the investment focus is on the satellite and the receiver sides. However, we believe that the smartphone support for LEO services will accelerate overall industry growth.

  1. MTI's other new business focus is LEO, mainly targeting internet service providers rather than voice service providers.

  2. Among the current LEO internet service providers, SpaceX is the leading company, with an estimated launch number of 12,000 satellites. Other main players include Amazon (Kuiper) (expected to launch around 3,200 satellites), OneWeb (expected to launch around 7,000 satellites), and Kymeta. MTI's current orders are mainly from OneWeb and Kymeta.

  3. We forecast that MTI's LEO business will contribute significantly to the overall revenue and profit from 2023 onwards.

Stock for actions:

MTI's 2022 growth momentum to benefit from two critical trends of the network industry, O-RAN, and LEO; revenue to boost starting September.

Risk:

New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to US-China trade war and COVID-19.

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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