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佳兆业集团(1638.HK)2021年中报点评:城市更新促进增长 财务状况持续优化

Kaisa Group (1638.HK) 2021 medium report comment: urban Renewal promotes growth and Financial situation continues to be optimized

西南證券 ·  Aug 26, 2021 00:00

Performance comments: 2021H1 achieved an operating income of 30.07 billion yuan, an increase of 34.8% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year. The company's gross profit margin / net profit margin was 30.9% / 10.2% respectively, which was lower than that of the same period last year (2.9pp/0.4pp).

Continue to plough the Dawan area, and contract sales maintain high growth. 2021H1's contract sales reached 68.35 billion yuan, an increase of 77% over the same period last year. 51% of the contract sales came from the Greater Bay area, with a compound growth rate of 15% from 2018 to 2020, with a contract sales area of 380.6 million square meters, an increase of 80% over the same period last year. The average contract price of each region is ranked by price as follows: 26409 yuan / ping in the Yangtze River Delta, 19065 yuan / ping in the Great Bay area, 13116 yuan / ping in West China, 11386 yuan / ping in Central China, and 9657 yuan / ping around the Bohai Sea.

The urban renewal takes the land, the high-quality soil reserve is abundant. The land storage area of 2021H1 company is 3114 square meters, of which the Greater Bay area accounts for 76%. The total land storage value is 734.66 billion yuan, of which 47% is urban renewal. The company continues to plough the Dawan area. 2021H1 has added 15 new land projects with a value of 103.1 billion yuan, a new land equity area of 2.46 million square meters, an equity ratio of 79%, and a total equity cost of 25.2 billion yuan, of which the Greater Bay area accounts for 63%. It is expected that the Greater Bay area will release more momentum of performance growth in the future. According to the urban energy level, first-tier cities account for 50%, second-and third-tier cities account for 50%; according to projects, bidding and hanging projects account for 45%, old projects account for 33%, and mergers and acquisitions account for 22%. Urban renewal reserve provides the driving force for sales. There are 213 urban renewal projects in 2021H1, covering an area of 5370 million square meters, and the corresponding saleable area is expected to reach 110 million square meters. Shenzhen and Guangzhou account for 70% of the total area available for sale.

The financial situation continues to be optimized, and the financing cost of short channels can be controlled. The asset-liability ratio of 2021H1 is 93.7%, excluding accounts received in advance, the asset-liability ratio is 69.9%, the net debt ratio is 74.0%, the cash short-debt ratio is 1.53, all are "green", and the asset-liability structure is constantly optimized. In May, the company completed a "1-to-7" rights issue, raising a total of 2.59 billion yuan. The company raised a total of 1.887 billion yuan through the issuance of long-rent apartment bonds, ABS and ABN. As of June 31, 2021, the company held 48.74 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of 3.4 percent over the end of 2020, with a quick ratio of 1.9.

Profit forecast and rating: the company's return net profit is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 9.6% from 2021 to 2023, taking into account the company's abundant high-quality soil reserves in the Dawan area, continuous financial optimization and maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the conversion of the old reform is lower than expected, and the financing cost is higher than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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