分析師：郭明錤 Ming-Chi Kuo
我們正向看待 Apple 採⽤ Mini LED 的產業趨勢與相關投資機會。我們將 Apple Mini LED 趨勢的投資策略分為五個階段 (⾒圖⼀)。五個投資階段依序是：第⼀供應商 (2019–2022 年)、第⼆供應商 (2021–2023 年)、MacBook 供應鏈 (2021–2023 年)、LED 產業 (2022–2024 年)、與 Micro LED (2023–2026年)。五個投資階段有不同的關注重點與投資機會，我們建議投資⼈可以此規劃短、中與⻓期的 Apple Mini LED 趨勢之投資策略。
第⼀階段：第⼀供應商 (2019–2022 年)
Apple 的 Mini LED 量產計劃⾃ 2019 年開始變得具體，故第⼀供應商便成為市場關注焦點。在第⼀供應商的股票反應此利多的過程中，⽣產良率與出貨時程變化顯著影響供應商股票的估值。我們認為，這個階段的投資價值將逐漸在 2021–2022年結束，原因在於供應商的股票⼤部分均反映此利多，且新競爭者⾃ 2021 年開始出現。不過，第⼀供應商的優勢在於較早建立設計與⽣產 Mini LED 相關零部件的能⼒，我們建議投資⼈關注第⼀供應商能否善⽤此優勢取得更多非 Apple 訂單以維持增⻓。
第⼆階段：第⼆供應商 (2021–2023 年)
Apple 為分散供應⻛險與降低成本，故積極找尋 Mini LED 關鍵零組件的第⼆供應商。我們認為第⼆供應商在此階段為市場的新焦點，並預期此階段將會持續⾄ 2023 年。Mini LED 關鍵零組件的第⼆供應商⼤部分是中國⼚商，具備顯著成本優勢，故若⽣產良率能符合 Apple 要求，出貨比重將顯著成⻓。我們認為第⼆供應商的訂單比重與出貨時程將會是市場關注重點。
第三階段：MacBook 供應鏈 (2021–2023 年)
我們認為 Mini LED ⾯板出貨量主要是由 MacBook 驅動，⽽非 iPad。在過去數年MacBook 出貨量並⽆太顯著成⻓。然⽽，因受益於採⽤Mini LED⾯板、Apple Silicon與全新設計，我們推估 MacBook 出貨量在 2021 與 2022 年均可顯著成⻓ 20% YoY 或以上。受益於 Mini LED 驅動 MacBook 出貨快速成⻓，因此我們預測 MacBook 供應鏈將會重新成為市場關注。在供應鏈中，我們特別關注新規格供應商、新進入者、市佔率顯著成⻓與規格升級受益者。我們認為此階段將可維持⾄ 2023 年。
第四階段：LED 產業 (2022–2024 年)
我們相信若 MacBook 與 iPad 因採⽤ Mini LED ⾯板⽽得到市場更多正向反饋，將會有更多非 Apple ⼚商仿效 Apple 採⽤與推⼴ Mini LED 的策略，⽽這將會⼤量消耗 LED 的產能。若 LED 芯片產能利⽤率能因此顯著改善，LED ⾏業將會出現許多投資機會。在此階段非 Apple 供應鏈將會成為市場關注重點
第五階段：Micro LED (2023–2026 年)
我們預測 Micro LED 的⽣產成本將⾃ 2023–2024 年顯著改善，故⾃ 2023 年開始可能將成為市場關注重點。我們相信 Apple 正在開發 Micro LED 技術，但⽬前⽣產時程尚未確定。我們也認為若 Mini LED 產業能成功，則有助於更多⼚商投資 Micro LED 設計與研發並有助於實現 Micro LED ⼤量⽣產。在此階段，我們預測投資機會來⾃於 LED 芯片供貨商、巨量移轉供貨商、封裝供貨商、檢測供貨商與設備⼚商。
投資建議：
我們將 Apple Mini LED 趨勢的投資策略分為五個階段，建議投資⼈可以此規劃短、中與⻓期的 Apple Mini LED 趨勢之投資策略。
⻛險提⽰：
新產品⽣產遞延或市場需求不如預期。
We are taking a positive view of the industry trend and investment opportunities related to Apple's adoption of Mini LED. Therefore, we divide the investment strategy for Apple's Mini LED trend into five stages (see Figure 1). The five investment stages are a first supplier (2019–2022), second supplier (2021–2023), MacBook supply chain (2021–2023), LED industry (2022–2024), and Micro LED (2023–2026). The five investment stages have different focus areas and investment opportunities. Therefore, we recommend that investors refer to it and plan short, medium, and long-term investment strategies for Apple Mini LED trends.
The first stage: First Supplier (2019–2022)
As Apple's Mini LED mass production plans became concrete starting in 2019, the first supplier becomes the focus of market attention. As first-supplier stocks react to this positive trend, changes in production yields and shipment schedules significantly affect the valuation of supplier stocks. We believe that the investment value at this stage will gradually end in 2021-2022, as supplier stocks largely reflect the positive and new competitors emerging in 2021. However, the first supplier has the advantage of building up its ability to design and produce Mini LED-related components earlier. We recommend that investors pay attention to whether the first supplier can leverage this advantage to secure more non-Apple orders to sustain growth.
The second stage: Second Supplier (2021–2023)
To diversify supply risk and reduce cost, Apple is actively looking for second suppliers of key Mini LED components. We believe that second suppliers are the new focus of the market in this stage and expect it to continue through 2023. We believe that the proportion of orders and shipment schedules of the second supplier will be the market focus.
The third stage: MacBook Supply Chain (2021–2023)
We believe that MacBooks, not iPads, mainly drive Mini LED panel shipments. MacBook shipments have not grown much in the past few years. However, we expect MacBook shipments to grow significantly by 20% YoY, or more in 2021 and 2022, due to the adoption of Mini LED panels, Apple Silicon, and all-new designs. As Apple benefits from the rapid growth of MacBook shipments driven by Mini LED, we predict that the MacBook supply chain will become a renewed market focus. We are particularly optimistic about suppliers for new specifications, new entrants, significant market share gainers, and specification upgrade beneficiaries within the supply chain. We believe this stage will last until 2023.
The fourth stage: LED Industry (2022–2024)
We think that if the MacBook and iPad receive more positive feedback from the market for adopting Mini LED panels, more non-Apple companies will follow Apple's strategy of adopting and promoting Mini LEDs, which will consume a lot of LED chip capacity. If the LED chip capacity utilization rate can be significantly improved, there will be many investment opportunities in the LED industry. At this stage, the non-Apple supply chain will become the market focus.
The fifth stage: Micro LED (2023–2026)
We predict that the production cost of Micro LED will improve significantly starting in 2023–2024, so it will likely be a market focus from 2023 onwards. We believe Apple is developing Micro LED technology, but the production schedule is not yet confirmed. We also think that if the Mini LED is successful, it will help more companies invest in Micro LED design and R&D and help to realize Micro LED mass production. At this stage, we expect investment opportunities to come from LED chip suppliers, mass transfer suppliers, packaging suppliers, testing suppliers, and equipment manufacturers.
Stock for actions:
We divide the investment strategy for Apple's Mini LED trend into five stages and recommend that investors refer to it and plan short, medium, and long-term investment strategies for Apple Mini LED trends.
Risk:
New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to COVID-19.