Event: on August 12, 2021, Australian excellent announced its operating results for the first half of 2021. 21H1 achieved operating income of 4.271 billion yuan, + 10.65% year-on-year, and net profit of 594 million yuan, + 45.31% compared with the same period last year. If last year's one-time fees are excluded, the adjusted net profit is + 3.4% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, 21Q2 realized operating income of 2.087 billion yuan, + 8.36% year-on-year, and net profit of 263 million yuan, + 88.62% year-on-year.
The overall growth rate of Q2 slowed slightly, and Jiabei returned to growth: the company's 21Q1/21Q2 revenue grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively. The company's second-quarter performance growth was mainly due to the rapid growth of Jiabeite's 21Q2 revenue in China.
From the split point of view, 1) among 21H1's own brand formula, the income of milk powder / goat milk powder business in China is 2.053 billion yuan, and yoy+ 16.9% is 2.0%. Among them, ① in goat milk powder, China / overseas regions achieve goat milk powder revenue of 1.598 million yuan, yoy+4.1/-25.3%, China is the main source of business growth. Goat milk powder business maintained a recovery, 2021Q2's own formula sheep milk powder Jia Beit China income yoy+17.8%, than 2021Q1 yoy-5.9% decline turned to positive growth. The growth of ② 's milk powder business revenue mainly comes from the pull of Hipnokai 1897, and 2021H1 Heppenokai 1897 achieves an income of 1.374 billion yuan, but the yoy+18.9%, growth rate has slowed down compared with the previous period. 2) the private brand and other / nutrition business 21H1 realized income of 0.90 million yuan, yoy-0.6%/+27.2%. The company's overall revenue to achieve steady growth, the company continues to improve the industrial chain and optimize the product mix, adhere to embrace mother-to-child channels, with high-frequency sub-high-quality activities enabling channels.
The inventory provision affects the gross profit margin, and the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation enhances the publicity: 2021H1's gross profit margin / net profit rate is 50.0%, 13.4%, year-on-year-2.4pcts/+2.5pcts. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly in Europe, which is the main market for company-related trade. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, commodity prices are low, which has a significant negative impact on gross profit margin. In addition, the increase in inventory provision is expected to affect gross profit margin 2.9pcts. The management / sales expense rate of 2021H1 company is 7.8% / 26.2% respectively, compared with the same period of last year-0.5pcts/+0.7pcts. The decline of management expense rate is mainly affected by economies of scale and the implementation of cost control; the increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the increase of advertising expenses due to the intensification of market competition.
Industry competition has intensified, supervision has tightened, and channel reform has responded to industry changes: 1) since the beginning of this year, the consumer price of milk powder has declined, on the one hand, because of the decline in demand for milk powder, the growth rate of head milk powder brands has declined; on the other hand, it is due to the intensification of competition in the industry. the specific performance is the lengthening of 618 online promotion time, low-price promotion disrupting the price system, and increased competitive pressure from foreign milk powder. In addition, there have been new changes in the regulatory policy of the industry this year, causing some disturbance to the industry. 2) in order to cope with the changes in the industry, Hipnokai 1897 carried out channel reform. Since June 1, the company has adopted a new sales model, carrying out four-level management of stores, opening up the whole network from manufacturers to consumers, and streamlining costs to prevent the occurrence of goods channeling in the market. In the second half of the year, the company will strengthen the development of new customers in the second and third stages, strengthen ground promotion activities, and take measures to improve the repurchase rate of consumers.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the downward consumer prices of milk powder this year and the intensification of competition in the industry, the company's net profit forecast for 2021 is lowered to 1.203 billion yuan (compared to the previous value-6.0%), and the net profit forecast for 2022-2023 is 1.481 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.70 EPS 0.86x0.99 yuan for 2021-2023. The current stock price corresponds to the PE of 9-7-6, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: increasing pressure on slowing economic growth, increased competition in the industry, and food safety problems.