分析师：郭明錤 Ming-Chi Kuo
我们最新的调查指出，Apple 将在约 2022 年中期推出全新设计 MacBook Air，此新机型主要卖点之⼀为采⽤ Mini LED 显⽰屏，⽽京东⽅将是 MacBook Air 的Mini LED 显⽰屏新供货商。我们认为，此订单对京东⽅意义非凡，这是京东⽅⾸次取得 Apple ⾼单价⾼端订单外，对京东⽅的 Mini LED 显⽰屏设计与⽣产能将有显著贡献并有利于取得非Apple订单。此外，我们相信市场低估规格升级与产品组合/产能优化对京东⽅在 2H21–2022 年营收与利润贡献。
我们预测 Apple 将在 2022 年中期推出全新设计并配备 Mini LED 显⽰屏的 MacBook Air。
我们相信 2022 新款 MacBook Air 因其较低售价的产品定位，将会显著提升 Mini LED 显⽰屏出货。
⽬前还不确定 Mini LED MacBook Air ⼤量⽣产后，既有的 M1 MacBook Air 会 否结束⽣产。如果 M1 MacBook Air 会结束⽣产，则意味着 Mini LED MacBook Air 起始价可能会与⽬前的 M1 MacBook Air 相同。如果 M1 MAcBook Air 不会 结束⽣产，则意味着 M1 MacBook Air 的售价可能会降低。我们认为⽆论是哪⼀ 种情境，均有助于 MacBook Air 整体出货量。
Mini LED MacBook Air 将提供数种机壳颜⾊选项，外观设计则与 3Q21 新款 MacBook Pro 相似。
2021 年 MacBook Air 总出货量约 550–600 万部。我们预测受惠于 Mini LED MacBook Air，2022 年 MacBook Air 总出货量可达 800 万部或以上。
我们预测京东⽅将成为 2022 年 Mini LED MacBook Air 的显⽰屏新供货商。
在京东⽅的估值⽅⾯，市场仅关注 TV显⽰屏报价与出货量，但我们认为规格升 级与产品组合/产能优化对京东⽅⻓期增⻓更为重要。
京东⽅⾃ 2H21 开始将提⾼ 65 吋 TV 或以上与⾼端 IT (笔记本与显⽰器) 显⽰屏 出货比重，并降低单价与获利较低的 32 吋 TV ⾯板出货比重。TV ⾯板出货量虽 会因此变化⽽下降，但整体营收与利润反能成⻓。
⼩尺⼨在显⽰屏⽅⾯， 我们预估京东⽅的 iPhone OLED 显⽰屏出货量可望在 2022 显著成⻓约 150% YoY 或以上⾄ 2,000–2,500 万片。受益于 iPhone 显⽰ 屏订单贡献，京东⽅的⼿机 OLED 市占份额可望从 2021 年的 5–10%提升⾄ 2022 年的 10–15%。
中尺⼨显⽰屏⽅⾯，除上述提到⾃ 2022 年开始出货⾼单价 Mini LED MacBook Air 的显⽰屏，我们预期京东⽅⾃ 2022 年开始也将开始出货⽤于 Windows 笔记型电脑的 OLED 显⽰屏。此外，⾼单价 IT 设备显⽰屏出货量也将因产能优化⽽ 提升。
⼤尺⼨显⽰屏⽅⾯，⾼单价 65 吋 TV 或以上显⽰屏出货量将因产能优化⽽提 升。此外，我们预期京东⽅将在 2022 年出货⽤于 TV 的玻璃基板 Mini LED 显 ⽰屏 (vs. ⽬前 Mini LED 显⽰屏采⽤ PCB 基板)。采⽤玻璃基板的 Mini LED 显 ⽰屏将更轻更薄，有利于京东⽅提升⾼端 TV 显⽰屏市场份额。
投资建议：京东⽅为 Apple Mini LED 显⽰屏新供货商；规格升级与产品组合/产能优化为京东⽅ 2H21–2022 关键成⻓驱动。
⻛险提⽰：新产品⽣产递延或市场需求不如预期。
Our latest survey indicates that Apple will launch an all-new design MacBook Air around mid-2022. One of the main selling points of this new model is the adoption of a Mini LED display, and BOE will be the new display supplier of the Mini LED MacBook Air. This order is meaningful for BOE, as it is the first time for BOE to secure a high-end order with high ASP from Apple. It will significantly contribute to BOE's capabilities for Mini LED display design and production and facilitate non-Apple orders. In addition, we believe that the market underestimates the contribution of specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization to BOE's revenue and profit in 2H21–2022.
We predict that Apple will launch the all-new design MacBook Air equipped with a Mini LED display in mid-2022.
We believe the new 2022 MacBook Air will significantly increase Mini LED display shipments due to its more affordable product position.
It is not yet certain whether the existing M1 MacBook Air will end production after the Mini LED MacBook Air goes to mass production. If the M1 MacBook Air does end production, the Mini LED MacBook Air will probably start at the same price as the current M1 MacBook Air. On the other hand, if the M1 MacBook Air doesn't end production, the price of the M1 MacBook Air may be lower. We think either scenario will help with total shipments of MacBook Air.
The casing of the Mini LED MacBook Air will offer several color options, and the form factor design will be similar to the 3Q21 new MacBook Pro.
We estimate that the total MacBook Air shipments in 2021 will reach 5.5–6 million units. We forecast total MacBook Air shipments to reach 8 million units or more in 2022, benefiting from the sale of the Mini LED MacBook Air.
We predict that BOE will be the new display supplier of Mini LED MacBook Air in 2022.
The Mini LED display suppliers for the 3Q21 new MacBook Pro models are LG Display and Sharp/GIS. We predict that the 2022 new Mini LED MacBook Air display suppliers will be BOE and LG Display.
Since BOE has only shipped low-end displays for MacBook Air in the past, it is meaningful for BOE to obtain high ASP Mini LED display orders. We believe that this order will help BOE's Apple business grow significantly in 2022.
The BOE's Mini LED display order from Apple will help the company upgrade its design and production capabilities for Mini LED displays. We believe BOE will receive more orders for Mini LED displays from non-Apple brands due to its upgraded design and production capabilities.
We have a positive view that specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization will drive BOE's further growth.
In terms of BOE's valuation, the market is only concerned about TV panel prices and shipments. Still, we believe that specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization are more critical to BOE's long-term growth.
Starting from 2H21, BOE will increase the shipment allocation of 65-inch TV panels or above and high-end IT (notebook and monitor) panels and reduce the proportion of low-ASP and -profit 32-inch TV panel shipments. As a result, although TV panel shipments will decline due to this change, overall revenue and profits can grow.
In terms of small-sized panels, we estimate that BOE's iPhone OLED display shipments to grow significantly by 150% YoY or higher to 20–25 million units in 2022. Therefore, benefiting from the contribution of iPhone display orders, we expect that the BOE's smartphone OLED market share will increase from 5– 10% in 2021 to 10–15% in 2022.
In terms of medium-sized panels, in addition to the above-mentioned high ASP Mini LED MacBook Air displays in 2022, we expect BOE to start shipping OLED displays for Windows notebooks in 2022. High ASP IT device panel shipments will also increase due to capacity optimization.
In terms of large panels, shipments of high ASP 65-inch TV panels or above will increase due to capacity optimization. In addition, we expect BOE to ship Mini LED displays that adopt glass substrates for TVs in 2022 (vs. the current Mini LED display’s adoption of a PCB substrate). Mini LED displays that adopt glass substrates will be lighter and thinner, helping BOE increase its market share in high-end TV displays.
Stock for actions: BOE to be a new supplier of Apple Mini LED displays; specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization to be key growth drivers for BOE in 2H21–2022.
Risk: New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to COVID-19.