分析師：郭明錤 Ming-Chi Kuo
我們最新的調查指出，Apple 將在約 2022 年中期推出全新設計 MacBook Air，此新機型主要賣點之⼀爲採⽤ Mini LED 顯⽰屏，⽽京東⽅將是 MacBook Air 的Mini LED 顯⽰屏新供貨商。我們認爲，此訂單對京東⽅意義非凡，這是京東⽅⾸次取得 Apple ⾼單價⾼端訂單外，對京東⽅的 Mini LED 顯⽰屏設計與⽣產能將有顯著貢獻並有利於取得非Apple訂單。此外，我們相信市場低估規格升級與產品組合/產能優化對京東⽅在 2H21–2022 年營收與利潤貢獻。
我們預測 Apple 將在 2022 年中期推出全新設計並配備 Mini LED 顯⽰屏的 MacBook Air。
我們相信 2022 新款 MacBook Air 因其較低售價的產品定位，將會顯著提升 Mini LED 顯⽰屏出貨。
⽬前還不確定 Mini LED MacBook Air ⼤量⽣產後，既有的 M1 MacBook Air 會 否結束⽣產。如果 M1 MacBook Air 會結束⽣產，則意味着 Mini LED MacBook Air 起始價可能會與⽬前的 M1 MacBook Air 相同。如果 M1 MAcBook Air 不會 結束⽣產，則意味着 M1 MacBook Air 的售價可能會降低。我們認爲⽆論是哪⼀ 種情境，均有助於 MacBook Air 整體出貨量。
Mini LED MacBook Air 將提供數種機殼顏⾊選項，外觀設計則與 3Q21 新款 MacBook Pro 相似。
2021 年 MacBook Air 總出貨量約 550–600 萬部。我們預測受惠於 Mini LED MacBook Air，2022 年 MacBook Air 總出貨量可達 800 萬部或以上。
我們預測京東⽅將成爲 2022 年 Mini LED MacBook Air 的顯⽰屏新供貨商。
在京東⽅的估值⽅⾯，市場僅關注 TV顯⽰屏報價與出貨量，但我們認爲規格升 級與產品組合/產能優化對京東⽅⻓期增⻓更爲重要。
京東⽅⾃ 2H21 開始將提⾼ 65 吋 TV 或以上與⾼端 IT (筆記本與顯⽰器) 顯⽰屏 出貨比重，並降低單價與獲利較低的 32 吋 TV ⾯板出貨比重。TV ⾯板出貨量雖 會因此變化⽽下降，但整體營收與利潤反能成⻓。
⼩尺⼨在顯⽰屏⽅⾯， 我們預估京東⽅的 iPhone OLED 顯⽰屏出貨量可望在 2022 顯著成⻓約 150% YoY 或以上⾄ 2,000–2,500 萬片。受益於 iPhone 顯⽰ 屏訂單貢獻，京東⽅的⼿機 OLED 市佔份額可望從 2021 年的 5–10%提升⾄ 2022 年的 10–15%。
中尺⼨顯⽰屏⽅⾯，除上述提到⾃ 2022 年開始出貨⾼單價 Mini LED MacBook Air 的顯⽰屏，我們預期京東⽅⾃ 2022 年開始也將開始出貨⽤於 Windows 筆記型電腦的 OLED 顯⽰屏。此外，⾼單價 IT 設備顯⽰屏出貨量也將因產能優化⽽ 提升。
⼤尺⼨顯⽰屏⽅⾯，⾼單價 65 吋 TV 或以上顯⽰屏出貨量將因產能優化⽽提 升。此外，我們預期京東⽅將在 2022 年出貨⽤於 TV 的玻璃基板 Mini LED 顯 ⽰屏 (vs. ⽬前 Mini LED 顯⽰屏採⽤ PCB 基板)。採⽤玻璃基板的 Mini LED 顯 ⽰屏將更輕更薄，有利於京東⽅提升⾼端 TV 顯⽰屏市場份額。
投資建議：京東⽅爲 Apple Mini LED 顯⽰屏新供貨商；規格升級與產品組合/產能優化爲京東⽅ 2H21–2022 關鍵成⻓驅動。
⻛險提⽰：新產品⽣產遞延或市場需求不如預期。
Our latest survey indicates that Apple will launch an all-new design MacBook Air around mid-2022. One of the main selling points of this new model is the adoption of a Mini LED display, and BOE will be the new display supplier of the Mini LED MacBook Air. This order is meaningful for BOE, as it is the first time for BOE to secure a high-end order with high ASP from Apple. It will significantly contribute to BOE's capabilities for Mini LED display design and production and facilitate non-Apple orders. In addition, we believe that the market underestimates the contribution of specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization to BOE's revenue and profit in 2H21–2022.
We predict that Apple will launch the all-new design MacBook Air equipped with a Mini LED display in mid-2022.
We believe the new 2022 MacBook Air will significantly increase Mini LED display shipments due to its more affordable product position.
It is not yet certain whether the existing M1 MacBook Air will end production after the Mini LED MacBook Air goes to mass production. If the M1 MacBook Air does end production, the Mini LED MacBook Air will probably start at the same price as the current M1 MacBook Air. On the other hand, if the M1 MacBook Air doesn't end production, the price of the M1 MacBook Air may be lower. We think either scenario will help with total shipments of MacBook Air.
The casing of the Mini LED MacBook Air will offer several color options, and the form factor design will be similar to the 3Q21 new MacBook Pro.
We estimate that the total MacBook Air shipments in 2021 will reach 5.5–6 million units. We forecast total MacBook Air shipments to reach 8 million units or more in 2022, benefiting from the sale of the Mini LED MacBook Air.
We predict that BOE will be the new display supplier of Mini LED MacBook Air in 2022.
The Mini LED display suppliers for the 3Q21 new MacBook Pro models are LG Display and Sharp/GIS. We predict that the 2022 new Mini LED MacBook Air display suppliers will be BOE and LG Display.
Since BOE has only shipped low-end displays for MacBook Air in the past, it is meaningful for BOE to obtain high ASP Mini LED display orders. We believe that this order will help BOE's Apple business grow significantly in 2022.
The BOE's Mini LED display order from Apple will help the company upgrade its design and production capabilities for Mini LED displays. We believe BOE will receive more orders for Mini LED displays from non-Apple brands due to its upgraded design and production capabilities.
We have a positive view that specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization will drive BOE's further growth.
In terms of BOE's valuation, the market is only concerned about TV panel prices and shipments. Still, we believe that specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization are more critical to BOE's long-term growth.
Starting from 2H21, BOE will increase the shipment allocation of 65-inch TV panels or above and high-end IT (notebook and monitor) panels and reduce the proportion of low-ASP and -profit 32-inch TV panel shipments. As a result, although TV panel shipments will decline due to this change, overall revenue and profits can grow.
In terms of small-sized panels, we estimate that BOE's iPhone OLED display shipments to grow significantly by 150% YoY or higher to 20–25 million units in 2022. Therefore, benefiting from the contribution of iPhone display orders, we expect that the BOE's smartphone OLED market share will increase from 5– 10% in 2021 to 10–15% in 2022.
In terms of medium-sized panels, in addition to the above-mentioned high ASP Mini LED MacBook Air displays in 2022, we expect BOE to start shipping OLED displays for Windows notebooks in 2022. High ASP IT device panel shipments will also increase due to capacity optimization.
In terms of large panels, shipments of high ASP 65-inch TV panels or above will increase due to capacity optimization. In addition, we expect BOE to ship Mini LED displays that adopt glass substrates for TVs in 2022 (vs. the current Mini LED display’s adoption of a PCB substrate). Mini LED displays that adopt glass substrates will be lighter and thinner, helping BOE increase its market share in high-end TV displays.
Stock for actions: BOE to be a new supplier of Apple Mini LED displays; specification upgrades and product mix/capacity optimization to be key growth drivers for BOE in 2H21–2022.
Risk: New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to COVID-19.