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苹果(Apple)：精元为 MacBook 剪⼑脚键盘背光新供货商，获利将 显著受惠于商业模式改变与 MacBook 出货量成长

蘋果(Apple)：精元爲 MacBook 剪⼑腳鍵盤背光新供貨商，獲利將 顯著受惠於商業模式改變與 MacBook 出貨量成長

天風國際 ·  2021/07/23 11:17

該研報為獨立文件：

獨立文件1

獨立文件2

分析師：郭明錤 Ming-Chi Kuo

我們最新的產業調查指出，精元的剪⼑剪鍵盤之導光板已通過 Apple 的質量驗證，預計在 2H21 開始⼤量⽣產與出貨，並打破茂林過去兩年獨家供應的地位。我們預測，精元的導光板之供應比重在 2H21 與 2022 年將分別達到約 35%與 50%。我們預估⾼⽑利導光板對精元的 2H21 與 2022 年 EPS 將分別貢獻NT$0.3–0.5 元與 NT$1.2–1.5 元，受惠於此新業務貢獻，精元 2021 與 2022 年的 EPS 將分別達到約 NT$8 元與 NT$9–10 元。

    我們預測精元將⾃ 2H21 開始⼤量⽣產 MacBook 鍵盤⽤的導光板，⽤於兩款 2H21 新 MacBook Pro 與既有 MacBook 機型。茂林維持 2 年獨家供應導光板的地位將被打破。

  1. 我們相信在⼀般狀況下，Apple 會避免零部件僅只有⼀家供貨商。我們認爲導入第⼆家導光板供貨商有助於 Apple 降低供應風險與提⾼議價⼒。

  2. 精元投入導光板開發已兩年，故我們相信精元對取得導光板訂單的動機很⾼。 我們最新的產業調查顯⽰，精元的導光板近期已通過 Apple 的質量驗證，且品質與茂林相似。

  3. 若精元出貨導光板順利，我們預期精元的導光板供應比重在 2H21 與 2022 年將 分別達到約 35%與 50%。

    精元的營收與獲利可望在 2H21 開始增強。導光板的⽑利率約較鍵盤⾼ 30–40%，故進 入導光板供應鏈將顯著提升精元的獲利能⼒。

  1. 雖然導光板 ASP (USD$10–12) 僅約鍵盤的 30–40%，但導光板的⽑利率較鍵 盤⾼ 30–40%，故精元的獲利能⼒/EPS 可望顯著受益於導光板訂單。

  2. 我們預估⾼⽑利導光板對精元的 2H21 與 2022 年 EPS 將分別貢獻 NT$0.3–0.5 元與 NT$1.2–1.5 元。受惠於此新業務貢獻，精元 2021 與 2022 年的 EPS 將分 別達到約 NT$8 元與 NT$9–10 元。

  3. 我們預估 MacBook 出貨量在 2H21 將成長 40–45% HoH，且筆記本電腦的缺 料問題將在 2H21 ⾒到改善，故精元的出貨動能將在 2H21 顯著轉強。

    精元未來的成長驅動來⾃於 MacBook 剪⼑剪鍵盤的導光板訂單、iPad 巧控鍵盤滲透率 提升與、2022 年新款 MacBook Air、組裝 MacBook 剪⼑腳鍵盤與導光板與 WFH (working from home) 對筆記本電腦需求的結構性改變。  

  1. 精元在 2H21 與 2022 年的 EPS 成長驅動將來⾃導光板訂單。

  2. iPad 的巧控鍵盤採取剪⼑剪鍵盤與背光設計。我們認爲 iPad 在⽀援⽣產⼒軟件 越來越完整時，也有助於巧控鍵盤滲透率提升與精元的出貨動能。我們預測， 巧控鍵盤的滲透率將由⽬前的 5–15%在未來 2–3 年內成長⾄ 30–40%。

  3. 我們預計 Apple 將約在 2022 年中發佈新款 MacBook Air，此新機型將配備 13.3 吋 mini LED 顯⽰器。若零組件缺料在 2022 年持續改善，則受益於新款 MacBook Air 與 Apple Silicon 持續升級，我們預估 MacBook 出貨量在 2022 年 將成長⾄約 2,000–2,200 萬部 (vs. 2021 年的 1,700–1,800 萬部)。

  4. 精元在 MacBook 供應鏈的成長分爲三個階段，包括：進入 MacBook 鍵盤供應 鏈 (2019 年)、同時出貨鍵盤與導光板 (2021 年)，以及組裝 MacBook 剪⼑腳鍵 盤與導光板。我們預計 2 年後，精元將組裝 MacBook 剪⼑腳鍵盤與導光板 (⽬ 前由廣達組裝)，此改變將有助於 Apple 降低供應鏈管理複雜度，且精元亦可透 過垂直整合進⼀步提升獲利。我們認爲 Apple ⼀但決定由精元與緯創組裝鍵盤 與導光板，精元因是鍵盤主要供貨商 (供應比重 60%)，故也將成爲導光板主要供應商。

  5. 我們相信 WFH 對筆記型電腦需求已產⽣結構性改變，有助於精元長期成長。

    投資建議： 精元爲 MacBook 剪⼑腳鍵盤背光新供貨商，獲利將顯著受惠於商業模式改變與 MacBook 出貨量成長。 

    風險提示： 新產品⽣產遞延或市場需求不如預期。

According to our latest industry survey, Sunrex's light guides for scissor switch keyboards had passed Apple's qualification, and it will begin mass production and shipments in 2H21, breaking GLT's exclusive supply position in the past two years. We forecast that Sunrex's shipment allocation of light guides will reach approximately 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, respectively. 

Thanks to the new business contribution, we estimate that high-GPM light guides will contribute NT$0.3-0.5 and NT$1.2-1.5 to Sunrex's EPS in 2H21 and 2022, respectively, and that Sunrex's EPS will reach approximately NT$8 and NT$9- 10 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. We predict that Sunrex will begin mass production of light guides for MacBook keyboards for the two new 2H21 MacBook Pro models and the existing MacBook models in 2H21. It will break GLT's two-year exclusive supply position of light guides.  

  1. We believe that in general cases, Apple will avoid having only one supplier for components. We think that the initiation of a second supplier of light guides will help Apple reduce supply risk and increase bargaining power.

  2. Sunrex has been involved in developing light guides for two years, so we believe that Sunrex has a strong motivation to obtain light guide orders. In addition, our latest industry survey indicates that Sunrex's light guides have recently passed Apple's qualification and have a similar quality to GLT's.

  3. If Sunrex's shipments of light guides go smoothly, we expect Sunrex's supply ratio of light guides to reach approximately 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, respectively.

Sunrex's revenue and profitability will grow in 2H21. The GPM of light guides is approximately 30-40% higher than that of keyboards, so entering the supply chain of light guides will significantly increase Sunrex's profitability. 

  1. Although the ASP for the light guide (USD$10-12) is 30-40% of that for the keyboard, the GPM for the light guide is 30-40% higher than that for the keyboard, so Sunrex's profitability/EPS will benefit significantly from light guide orders.

  2. We estimate that high-GPM light guides will contribute NT$0.3-0.5 and NT$1.2- 1.5 to Sunrex's EPS in 2H21 and 2022, respectively. Benefiting from this new business contribution, Sunrex's EPS will reach approximately NT$8 and NT$9- 10 in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

  3. We estimate that MacBook shipments will grow 40-45% HoH in 2H21 and that the component shortage will improve in 2H21, so Sunrex's shipment momentum will be significantly stronger in 2H21.

Sunrex's future growth will be driven by orders for light guides of MacBook scissor switch keyboards, increased penetration rate of iPad Magic Keyboards, the new MacBook Air in 2022, assembly of MacBook scissor switch keyboards and light guides, and structural changes in demand for laptops from working from home (WFH).

  1. Sunrex's EPS growth drivers in 2H21 and 2022 will be light guide orders.

  2. iPad's Magic Keyboard supports scissor mechanism backlit designs. We believe that the iPad's increasingly complete support for productivity software will also help increase Magic Keyboard penetration rate and Sunrex's shipment momentum. We predict that the penetration rate of the Magic Keyboard will grow from the current 5-15% to 30-40% in the next 2-3 years.

  3. We expect Apple to release a new MacBook Air with a 13.3" mini LED display around mid-2022. Suppose component shortages continue to improve in 2022. In that case, we expect MacBook shipments to grow to approximately 20-22 million units in 2022 (vs. 17-18 million units in 2021) thanks to the new MacBook Air and continued Apple Silicon upgrades.

  4. Sunrex's growth in the MacBook supply chain has three phases, including entry into the MacBook keyboard supply chain (2019), shipping both keyboards and light guides (2021), and assembling MacBook scissor switch keyboards and light guides. We expect that Sunrex will assemble the MacBook scissor switch keyboard and light guides (currently assembled by Quanta) in two years. This change will help Apple reduce the complexity of supply chain management and further increase Sunrex's profitability through vertical integration. We believe that once Apple decides to have Sunrex and Wistron assemble the keyboard and the light guide, Sunrex will become the leading supplier of the light guide as it is the main supplier of the keyboard (60% market share).

  5. We believe that WFH's structural change in demand for laptops will contribute to Sunrex's long-term growth.

Stock for actions: Sunrex is a new supplier of light guide plates for MacBook scissor switch keyboards, and its profitability will benefit significantly from the change in business model and growth in MacBook shipments.

Risk: New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to US-China trade war and COVID-19.

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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