Event
The company publishes a half-year performance forecast for 2021 and expects revenue of 20 to 2.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2021, an increase of 85 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, Q2 is expected to be 10.5-1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 52% MUE 67% over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home is expected to reach RMB 0.95-110 million RMB, an increase of 195% MUE 242%. Of this total, Q2 is expected to be 0.63-78 million yuan, an increase of 185% Mel 253% over the same period last year, and the net profit of deducting non-return is expected to reach RMB 0.93-108 million, an increase of 386% over the same period last year. Of this total, Q2 is expected to be between 0.61 and 76 million yuan, an increase of 179 percent over the same period last year.
Company comment
The product structure has been continuously optimized, and the revenue of cheese bars has doubled.
The revenue of Q2 cheese products is expected to be 900 million yuan (including BC), of which the revenue of cheese sticks is expected to be 700 million yuan, compared with 326 million yuan in the same period of 20 years, an increase of 115% over the same period last year. The profit elasticity in the first half of the year mainly comes from the increase in gross profit margin brought about by product structure optimization. Q2 cheese bars are expected to account for more than 60% of revenue, an increase of about 13pct over the same period last year The net interest rates of Q1 and Q2 are 3.4% and 6.4% respectively (the median of Q2). With the addition of equity incentive fees, the net interest rate of Q2 is expected to exceed 7%, and the net interest rate is improved obviously. Benefiting from the high growth of the cheese business, the share of cheese bar revenue is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year. We judge that the company's gross profit margin will exceed 40% in 21 years, and the increase in gross sales margin will eventually be transmitted to the increase in net profit margin.
Capacity expansion + new product promotion, helping to boost revenue of 10 billion yuan
The company plans 100 production lines during the 14th five-year Plan. It is estimated that by the end of 21, the cheese processing project of Miaoke Jilin shredding workshop and the Miaoke dairy Zhongxin Food Zone Entrepreneurship Park project will release more than 12500 tons of production capacity; the Shanghai Jinshan plant is expected to be put into production in September, and the company's future production capacity will exceed 100000 tons. In the second half of the year, the company plans to launch a series of room temperature cheese sticks and family tables, which are expected to have a gross profit margin of more than 60%. In the future, efforts will be made to create more than one billion items, including cheese sticks, room temperature cheese, family table series and functional cheese foods.
Mengniu strategic investment to consolidate its leading position
Mengniu officially joined the board of directors in late July and will inject the trade business of cheese and related raw materials into Miaoke within 2 years, while providing production, supply chain, channels and other resources. Miaoke will become its only cheese platform, focusing on the cheese business. According to Kaidu data, the current market share is 34% for Miaoke Lando, 20% for Bellevue, and 10% for Yili. We believe that with the help of Mengniu, Miaoko's goods and mobile sales advantages will continue to shake off competitors and achieve a continuous increase in future revenue.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company's operating income in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be 4.413 billion yuan, 6.266 billion yuan and 8.522 billion yuan respectively; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company is 335 million yuan, 631 million yuan and 962 million yuan respectively; and the EPS per share is 2.32 yuan per share and the corresponding PE is 38.4825.25 times the corresponding PE. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The repeated risk of epidemic situation, the aggravating risk of market competition, the lower-than-expected risk of new product launch, the risk of food safety and so on.
