Event: on May 11, 2021, Australia excellent released its operating results for the first quarter of 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 2.183 billion yuan, yoy+12.94%, achieved a net profit of 331 million yuan, and yoy+22.95%, increased its net profit by 10.98% compared with 2020Q1, which is in line with market expectations.
A steady start to the first quarter, milk powder growth rate is eye-catching: the company's 2021Q1 revenue achieved 2.183 billion yuan, yoy+12.94%, revenue growth performance is mainly due to the company's milk powder high-speed growth. From the split point of view, the income of 2021Q1's milk powder / goat milk powder business in China is 1.053 / 872 million yuan, of which in yoy+36.47%/-7.07%, the income of goat milk powder in China / overseas areas is 8.35 / 37 million yuan, yoy-5.92%/-27.17%. The income of private brand and other / nutrition business is 2.31 / 27 million yuan, yoy+19.83%/-11.26%. The rapid growth of the company's milk powder business revenue comes from the substantial growth of Hipnokai in 1897, 2021Q1 Hipnokai achieved an income of 718 million yuan in 1897, and yoy+58.7%, continues to be the company's fastest-growing business unit. Sheep milk powder business continues to recover, 2021Q1 own brand sheep milk powder business income yoy-7.07%, than 2020Q4 yoy-12.16% narrowed. From a month-on-month point of view, the company's sheep milk powder business income in China is 29.67% higher than that of 2020Q4, maintaining the trend of recovery.
The steady growth of the company's overall revenue stems from the company's rapid adjustment of strategy under the changing market environment, insisting on embracing mother-to-child channels and empowering channels with high-frequency and sub-high-quality activities.
The level of net profit increased slightly, and the expense rate remained stable during the period: 2021Q1's gross profit margin / net profit rate was 51.11% 14.72%, compared with the same period last year. 0.73 pcts, the main reason for the decline in gross profit margin is that the company strategically purchased raw sheep milk from 2021Q1, resulting in an operating loss of about 19 million yuan. The increase in bulk trade and inventory provision is expected to affect 1pcts respectively. The management / sales expense rates of 2021Q1 were 7.97% / 25.52% respectively, compared with the same period last year. The rate of management / sales expenses of the company was 7.97% / 25.52%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The rate of management / sales expenses of the company was 7.97% / 25.52%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
Looking forward to the whole year, channel fine management + new product iteration to promote sustainable development: 1) from the channel point of view, the company will pay more attention to effective channel management through member marketing system, adopt "one can, one code" in implementation, and do a good job of full chain traceability. 2) in the development and promotion of new products, it is worth looking forward to the upgrading of the Jiabeite leisurely series packaging this year. Organic goat milk powder is expected to be on the market by the end of the year. At the same time, the fourth series of Jiabeite and pure liquid goat milk products are also under research and development. Hipnokai series has launched children's growth formula in March this year, entering a new stage of multi-category development, at the same time, it is expected to expand the category of specially matched milk powder for infants and young children this year. In brand promotion and marketing, 2021Q1's main product, Jiabeite, has joined hands with "son-in-law", which is the most popular project in the history of iQiyi, which makes the brand awareness of Jiabei Aite improve rapidly.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: optimistic about the company's ability to further channel management and expand its category, maintain the 2021-2023 revenue forecast of 92.36 / 105.11 / 11.898 billion yuan, maintain the net profit forecast of 1.2801,693 million yuan, maintain the PE forecast of 14-12-11 times, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: increasing pressure on slowing economic growth, intensified competition in the industry, and food safety problems.