Event Overview
The company released a quarterly report, 1Q21 income 2.18 billion yuan, year-on-year + 12.9%; return to the mother net profit of 330 million yuan, year-on-year + 22.9%, excluding the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss, + 11% year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
Goat milk powder confirms recovery trend
Q1 company sheep milk powder achieved revenue of 870 million yuan,-7.1% compared with the same period last year, with a month-on-month ratio of + 15.3%. Among them, China's goat milk powder revenue of 830 million yuan, 5.9% year-on-year, month-on-month + 29.7%. Last year, due to the high base of hoarding in Q1 epidemic channels, the revenue of goat milk powder decreased compared with the same period last year. From a month-on-month point of view, after adjustment for the whole year last year, the transaction price of the fleeing platform has increased month by month since the beginning of the year, and this year, Q1 sheep milk powder has been in the trend of recovery. China's infant powder market continues to accelerate the demand for goat milk powder, and this year's competitive goat milk powder is also showing a rapid growth trend (Q1 Hesheng Yuanyang milk powder revenue + 96% compared with the same period last year). Last year, the channeling of goods did not shake the foundation of the Aoyou Beit sheep milk powder market, and still maintained the absolute leading position of 30% + share of the domestic goat milk powder market. after the rapid adjustment of the company, the confidence of dealers was restored. This year, through the exclusive reputation of the variety show "New Life of Drama" and the brand recognition of the popular TV series "superfluous son-in-law", the brand awareness has been further expanded. We expect Jiabei sheep milk powder sales to show a sustained recovery this year, with a low Q2-Q4 base last year, and quarterly revenue growth is expected to expand quarter by quarter compared with the same period last year.
The sales growth rate of milk powder Hipnokai is faster than expected.
The income of milk powder of Q1 company was 1.05 billion yuan, which was + 36.5% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, Hipnokai 1897 earned 720 million yuan, + 58.7% compared with the same period last year. For the whole of last year, 1897 of Heipnokai's revenue was + 52.7% compared with the same period last year, and this year, Q1 Hypokai 1897 is still growing at a high speed, exceeding previous expectations. Hipnokai 1897 is positioned as an ultra-high-end imported milk powder brand. under the operation of the domestic team, it has developed rapidly in recent years, and the acceptance of terminal stores has increased rapidly. this year, on the basis of less than 20,000 stores, we will continue to cover 4,000 and 5,000 stores in an orderly manner, and it is expected that Hipnokai's revenue will continue to grow rapidly.
Q1 other milk powder achieved income of 340 million yuan, + 4.9% year-on-year, other milk powder business units, including capacity, Menado Division, after the reorganization of the business department last year, Q1 showed a steady recovery this year.
The profitability of the main business is stable.
The net interest rate of Q1 company is 15.2%. Last year, after excluding non-recurring profit and loss, the net interest rate of Q1 was 15.4%, which was-0.2 pps compared with the same period last year, and its profitability remained stable. Among them, Q1 gross profit margin is 51.1%,-2.8 pps compared with the same period last year. We judge that the decline in gross profit margin compared with the same period last year is related to the by-product trade loss in the production of goat whey and the increase in inventory provision. Q1 sales expense rate is 25.5%, year-on-year-0.1 pps, management expense rate is 8%, the same as the same period last year, the company's expense rate is stable, in line with the annual plan.
Investment suggestion
Q1 Australia excellent two core business units of sheep milk powder Jia Beit recovery trend has been verified, milk powder Hipnock 1897 maintained high-speed growth, faster-than-expected growth. Performance due to last year's Q1 epidemic channel hoarding led to a high base, Q1 performance increased little compared with the same period last year; last year's Q2-Q4 adjustment led to a lower base, Q2 is expected to start a significant increase in quarterly performance this year. Maintain the profit forecast for 2021-23, the net income is 125 million yuan, the net profit is 1.25 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.25 billion yuan, and the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan. The current share price is only 12 times 2021 Pamp E (the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to the RMB is 0.83). The bottom position is confirmed and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk hint
The risk of a continuous decline in the number of newborns; the risk of food safety; the risk of changing consumer demand; the risk of fierce competition in the industry.