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新东方(9901.HK)3QFY21业绩:业绩超预期 收入指引强劲;持续关注K12教培监管新规

New Oriental (9901.HK) 3QFY21 results: performance exceeds expectations and revenue guidance is strong; continue to pay attention to the new K12 education and training regulations

浦銀國際 ·  Apr 21, 2021 00:00

The results exceeded market expectations and the 4QFY21 revenue guidance was strong: New Oriental Education & Technology Group's 3QFY21 revenue rose 29 per cent year-on-year to $1.19 billion, higher than market expectations of 4.4 per cent. K12 training business remains the company's main growth driver, up 37% from a year earlier. The adjusted operating margin for the current quarter was 9.7%, narrowing from the decline in the previous quarter and continuing to recover. Adjusted net profit was $160 million, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year, higher than the market expectation of $120 million. In addition, the company's 4QFY21 revenue guidance grew 38% to 43% year-on-year, maintaining a strong growth momentum and a median 2.6% higher than market expectations.

K12 is still the main growth driver, and the business related to studying abroad is gradually recovering: in the current quarter, the revenue of K12 business increased by 37% over the same period last year, and the number of applicants increased by 57% over the same period last year: of which the income from middle school business and the number of applicants increased by 35% and 56% respectively; the income of children's business and the number of applicants increased by 40% and 61% respectively. In this quarter, the revenue of the overseas study examination business fell 12% compared with the same period last year, while the income of consulting and studying abroad rose 11% year-on-year.

Continue to expand the layout of the network, OMO helps to expand the service radius: the number of students applying for after-school tutoring and exam preparation courses in this quarter is about 2.3 million, an increase of 43% over the same period last year. The total number of schools and learning centers increased by 209 to 1625 compared with the same period last year. The company will continue to expand its offline business, aiming to increase classroom capacity by 20% this fiscal year, including building new learning centers and expanding classroom space. In addition, during the winter semester, OMO online courses are offered in most existing cities and about 25 new surrounding satellite cities, attracting a large number of new customers at a lower cost. OMO's revenue contribution is about single digits this quarter, and the company expects to account for or more than 10% of next year's revenue.

The details of the policy have not yet been announced, and the company expects to have a manageable impact on revenue: recently, the government intends to tighten the extracurricular training market, strengthen the regulation of extracurricular training institutions, and lighten the burden on students. At present, the relevant policy details have not been released, the company does not expect to have a significant impact on revenue, and the corresponding expenses may increase in the short term to meet regulatory requirements.

Company guidelines: in view of the stable epidemic situation in China, the company expects the basic demand for after-school tutoring to rise rapidly and return to normal in the next few quarters. The company's guidance on 4QFY21 remains strong, with total revenue expected to be US $1101.9 million, an increase of 38% to 43% over the same period last year, of which revenue from K12 business increased by 45% MUE 50%; overseas exam preparation business grew by 30%; and overseas consulting and study abroad business is expected to be flat.

Investment risk: the regulation of K12 extracurricular training policy is stricter; fierce competition leads to less than expected increase in student enrollment.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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