New Oriental-S (09901.HK) 2021Q3 earnings review: Revenue growth recovered to 29% after the pandemic, and the decline in outlets continued to deepen

安信證券 · Apr 22, 2021 00:00

　　公司公告2021 财年第三季度业绩（2020 年12 月1 日-2021 年2 月28 日）：

　　1）收入11.90 亿美元，同比增长29.0%；

　　2）Non-GAAP 经营利润1.16 亿美元，同比减少14.0%；3）Non-GAAP 归母净利润1.63 亿美元，同比增长9.9%；4）递延收入18.66 亿美元，同比增长35.7%；

　　5）2021Q4 收入指引为11.019 亿美元-11.418 亿美元，同比增长38%-43%。

　　2021Q3 业绩略超预期。2021 财年第三季度公司业绩表现较为强劲，收入恢复高增速，同比增长29%，环比增长34%，略超此前收入指引。

　　利润端，毛利率54.7%，同比下降2 个百分点，环比提升约6 个百分点；Non-GAAP 经营利润率为9.7%，较上一季度跌幅缩窄，Non-GAAP净利润率为13.7%。费用端，销售费用率13.1%、管理费用率33.0%，基本持平。

　　K12 业务收入同比增长37%，为增长主力，海外考试相关业务逐渐复苏。业务结构上，K12 业务为公司增长主力，报告期实现37%的收入增长，其中中学业务收入同比增长35%，小学业务收入同比增长约40%；受海外疫情影响，出国考试准备业务收入同比下降12%，但随着疫苗推广，出国咨询和游学业务收入同比增长11%。

　　培训人次同比高增43%，线下网点扩张仍持续加速。1）学生数：

　　2021 财年第三季度公司学生报名人次约为230 万，同比增长43%，其中K12 学生人次同比增长57%；2）网点数：截至2021 年2 月28日，公司学校总数为118 家，学校及学习中心总数达1625 家，同比净增209 家，环比净增107 家，近三年公司网点扩张有加速趋势，在行业出清背景下，公司加速下沉有望进一步提升自身的市占率；同时公司依托OMO 模式及本地化教研教学，将优质教育内容覆盖至更广泛的区域与学生，OMO 战略为本季度的总收入带来了更大贡献，目前公司已在大多数现有城市与25个新的周边卫星城市推行了OMO在线课程。

　　投资建议：新东方自2008 年转型K12 领域以来，快速全国扩张，成长为全国性龙头，已建立起较高的品牌认可度。鉴于K12 教培市场极为分散，下沉市场空间大，2018 年起政策趋严以及叠加2020 年疫情的影响，中小培训机构逐步出清，龙头的市占率有望提升，看好公司依托OMO 模式深度下沉（一二线城市郊区、三四线城市），覆盖服务的区域与学生规模将进一步扩大。我们预计公司2021-2023 财年营收分别为41.8/55.4/70.9 亿美元，净利润分别为4.5/6.5/9.0 亿美元，对应PE 为61/42/30 倍，维持“买入-A”评级。

　　风险提示：K12 教培政策监管趋严、门店下沉不及预期、OMO 模式推进不及预期。

The company announces results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2021 (December 1, 2021-February 28, 2021):

1) revenue of US $1.19 billion, up 29.0% from the same period last year

2) Non-GAAP 's operating profit was US $116 million, down 14.0% from the same period last year. 3) Non-GAAP 's homed net profit was US $163 million, up 9.9% from the same period last year. 4) deferred income was US $1.866 billion, up 35.7% from the same period last year.

5) the 2021Q4 revenue guidance is US $1.1019 billion-US $1.1418 billion, an increase of 38% Mel 43% over the same period last year.

2021Q3's performance slightly exceeded expectations. In the third quarter of fiscal 2021, the company's performance was relatively strong, with revenue returning to a high growth rate of 29% year-on-year and 34% month-on-month, slightly exceeding the previous revenue guidance.

On the profit side, gross profit margin was 54.7%, down 2% from a year earlier and up about 6% from a month earlier; Non-GAAP 's operating margin was 9.7%, narrowing down from the previous quarter, and Non-GAAP 's net profit margin was 13.7%. On the expense side, the sales expense rate is 13.1% and the management expense rate is 33.0%, which is basically the same.

K12 business revenue increased by 37% over the same period last year, which is the main growth force, and overseas examination-related business is gradually recovering. In terms of business structure, K12 business was the main growth force of the company, with revenue growth of 37% during the reporting period, including 35% year-on-year growth in middle school business income and 40% year-on-year growth in primary school business income. Affected by the overseas epidemic, the business income of preparing for exams abroad decreased by 12% compared with the same period last year, but with the promotion of vaccines, the business income of consulting and studying abroad increased by 11%.

The number of training people has increased by 43% compared with the same period last year, and the expansion of offline outlets continues to accelerate. 1) number of students:

The number of students enrolled in the company in the third quarter of fiscal year 2021 was about 2.3 million, an increase of 43% over the same period last year, of which the number of K12 students increased by 57%. 2) the number of outlets: as of February 28, 2021, the total number of schools and learning centers has reached 1625, a net increase of 209 compared with the same period last year and a net increase of 107. the expansion of the company's network has accelerated in the past three years, under the background of industry clearance, the company's accelerated sinking is expected to further increase its market share. At the same time, the company relies on the OMO model and localized teaching and research to cover a wider range of areas and students. OMO strategy has made a greater contribution to the total revenue of the quarter. At present, the company has implemented OMO online courses in most existing cities and 25 new surrounding satellite cities.

Investment advice: New Oriental Education & Technology Group since the transformation of K12 field in 2008, rapid national expansion, growth into a national leader, has established a high degree of brand recognition. In view of the fact that the K12 education and training market is extremely scattered, the sinking market space is large, the policy will be stricter from 2018, and the impact of the 2020 epidemic will be superimposed, small and medium-sized training institutions will gradually clear out, and the leading market share is expected to increase. It is optimistic that the company will rely on the OMO model to sink deeply (first-and second-tier cities, third-and fourth-tier cities), coverage areas and student scale will be further expanded. We expect revenue of $4.18 billion, $5.54 billion and net profit of $4.5 billion, respectively, for the 2021-2023 fiscal year, corresponding to a PE multiple of 61-42-30, maintaining a "buy-A" rating.

Risk hint: K12 training policy supervision is stricter, store sinking is less than expected, OMO model is not as expected.

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新东方-S(09901.HK)2021Q3财报点评：疫情后收入增速恢复达29% 网点下沉持续加深

New Oriental-S (09901.HK) 2021Q3 earnings review: Revenue growth recovered to 29% after the pandemic, and the decline in outlets continued to deepen

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