share_log

中国新华教育(02779.HK):内生稳健办学质地优异 转设+扩建增长可期

China's Xinhua Education (02779.HK): Endogenous Steady Schools, Excellent Quality, Transformation+Expansion Growth Can Be Expected

國盛證券 ·  Apr 7, 2021 00:00

Event: the company's revenue in 2020 increased by 9.4%, and its adjusted net profit increased by 8.4%. The company's revenue in 2020 increased by 9.4% to 479 million yuan, the net profit returned to the mother increased by 20.2% to 325 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit increased by 8.4% to 321 million yuan. The adjustment items include exchange earnings and equity incentive expenses.

The company's gross profit margin increased by 5.3PCTs to 65.0% in 2020, mainly due to the reduction of staff and workers' salary expenditure and teaching activity expenditure affected by the epidemic; the sales expense rate also increased by 0.5PCTs to 2.3%; and the management expense rate also decreased to 13.9%, mainly due to the existence of exchange differences. To sum up, the company's adjusted net interest rate fell by 0.6PCTs to 67.0% in 2020.

The number of students in school drives the growth of the company, and the results of enrollment are eye-catching. By the end of 2020, the number of students in the company's four schools had increased by 2.6% to 46400, of which the number of full-time students had increased by 6.8% to 42500, driving the company's revenue and performance growth. According to schools, the enrollment of clinical medical school / Hongshan College which has not yet been listed has increased by 61.7% and 9.7% respectively. The company has made outstanding achievements in enrollment, with the undergraduate enrollment plan for 2020 increasing by 19.2% compared with the same period last year, and the number of new students increasing by 21.8%. The enrollment plan for the 2021 academic year is 22.0% higher than the same period last year. In terms of tuition fees, the company's three colleges and universities did not raise their full-time tuition fees from 2020 to 2021, but only some general technical secondary school courses in Xinhua schools.

The quality of running a school is outstanding, and the cooperation between schools and enterprises is deepened. The school quality of the company is outstanding. The communication engineering and financial management majors of Xinhua College were selected as national first-class undergraduate majors in 2020, and another 5 majors were selected as provincial first-class undergraduate majors. The company optimizes the specialty setting according to the market demand, and the Clinical Medical College has been approved by the Medical Laboratory Technology and other three enrollment majors. The company deepens campus cooperation, Xinhua College join hands with Juxing Supermedia to build Juxing E-commerce College, in addition, the company's colleges and universities have widely set up industry-education integration training bases to improve students' employability.

Substantial progress has been made in the conversion, superimposed by the expansion of the campus, and the follow-up growth of the two independent colleges is expected. Substantial progress has been made in the conversion of two independent colleges of the company, in which the transfer of clinical medical schools has been evaluated and inspected by the expert group of the Provincial Department of Education and reported to the Ministry of Education for approval, while the conversion of Hongshan College has yet to be approved by the Department of Education of Jiangsu Province. the company expects that the conversion of the two independent colleges will be completed in 2021. After the completion of the conversion work, the two independent colleges are expected to merge the table. According to the comprehensive simulation, the company's annual income will reach 650 million yuan (yoy + 26.5%) in 2020, contributing to the income increment. In addition, the first phase of the new campus of the College of Clinical Science / Hongshan College will be built with an area of about 185 million square meters. Upon completion, it will have an additional capacity of 5000 million students, which is expected to be put into use in September 2021 to provide capacity space for the further development of the college.

Investment advice. As a group of high-quality private colleges and universities, the company continues to improve the quality of running schools, achieve steady endogenous growth, the integration of acquired schools is carried out smoothly, and the conversion and construction of new campuses are expected to contribute to the growth of the company's performance.

Based on the 2020Annual report, we adjust the company's 202lb 2022 net profit forecast to 401 / 551 million yuan (the original 412pm 453 million yuan), and expect 2023 net profit to be 608 million yuan, with an increase of 23.2%, 37.5% and 10.4%, corresponding to EPS 0.25x0.34, and the current price corresponds to PE 8X/6X/5X, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hints: the risk of policy uncertainty in the final draft of the regulations on the implementation of the Civil Law; the situation of enrollment expansion is not as expected; the speed of expansion is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment