Fufeng Group (00546.HK): Prices for various products such as monosodium glutamate and feed amino acids are rising, and the supply and demand pattern continues to improve

中金公司 · Mar 30, 2021 00:00

投资建议

公司公布2020 年业绩：收入166.9 亿元，同比+3.2%，归母净利润6.3 亿元，对应每股盈利0.25 元，同比-44.6%，收入规模符合我们预期。业绩期内，受到疫情负面影响及下半年玉米成本快速上升带来的成本压力，公司综合毛利率16.9%，同比下降3.3ppt，净利润率3.8%，同比下降3.2ppt。我们预计2021 年味精、苏氨酸、赖氨酸等产品价格将维持高位，行业景气上行，供需格局同比改善，上调公司评级至跑赢行业，上调目标价至3.6 港币。理由如下：

需求复苏同比大幅改善，行业集中度进一步提升，叠加原材料玉米涨价，味精价格达历史高点，预计景气持续。味精行业寡头格局稳定，目前CR3 约80%，市占率合计近90%。行业总体略供大于求，但去年受疫情及下半年原材料大幅上涨影响，部分小产能开工受限，场内库存低位。国内疫情后期，经济复苏带动需求改善，同时玉米价格上涨支撑产品涨价，目前味精市场价8,900-9,100 元/吨，20 目达9,400 元/吨，达到历史高点，较去年同期上涨28%，因下游对涨价不敏感，成本传导顺利，我们预计行业协同提升，味精有望景气持续。

受成本推动及养殖需求回暖，饲料氨基酸涨价迅猛，行业出清仍将持续。1 月生猪、能繁母猪存栏同比+35%、+35%，我们预计2021 年生猪出栏量长期向上，带动饲用氨基酸需求回温，同时规模养殖企业疫情防控优于中小散户，养殖行业规模化程度提升带来饲用氨基酸渗透率向上。目前苏氨酸/赖氨酸市场价14,550/12,300 元/吨，较去年同期上涨87%/78%，达到近五年历史高点。受去年疫情及非洲猪瘟影响，部分中小企业处于盈亏平衡线下，难以为继，加速产能出清，龙头企业优势凸显，我们预计产品价格高位持续。

我们与市场的最大不同？行业拐点来临，产能出清加速，疫情冲击下龙头企业韧性凸显，有望显著受益。

潜在催化剂：产品价格持续上行，上半年业绩有望超预期。

盈利预测与估值

我们维持2021 年盈利预测11.45 亿元，并引入2022 年盈利预测13.22 亿元，由于产品价格景气上行，我们上调公司评级为跑赢行业，上调目标价12.5%至3.6 港币，目前股价对应2021/2022 年5.5/4.8 倍P/E，目标价对应2021/2022 年6.8/6.0 倍P/E，含24.6%上行空间。

风险

原材料价格持续快速上行，疫情负面影响持续，估值中枢下移。

Investment suggestion

The company announced its 2020 results: income 16.69 billion yuan, year-on-year + 3.2%, return to the mother net profit of 630 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.25 yuan, year-on-year-44.6%, the scale of income is in line with our expectations. During the performance period, due to the negative impact of the epidemic and the cost pressure caused by the rapid rise in corn costs in the second half of the year, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 16.9%, down 3.3ppt, and net profit margin was 3.8%, down 3.2ppt from the same period last year. We expect the prices of monosodium glutamate, threonine, lysine and other products to remain high in 2021, the industry boom will rise, the supply and demand pattern will improve compared with the same period last year, the company will be rated to outperform the industry, and the target price will be raised to HK $3.6. The reasons are as follows:

Demand recovery significantly improved compared with the same period last year, industry concentration further increased, superimposed raw material corn prices, monosodium glutamate prices reached an all-time high, is expected to continue. Monosodium glutamate industry oligopoly structure is stable, the current CR3 of about 80%, a total market share of nearly 90%. The overall supply of the industry slightly exceeds demand, but last year, affected by the epidemic and a sharp rise in raw materials in the second half of the year, the start-up of some small capacity was limited and inventories were low. In the later stage of the domestic epidemic, the economic recovery led to an improvement in demand, while the rise in corn prices supported the increase in product prices. at present, the market price of monosodium glutamate is 8900-9100 yuan / ton, 20 eyes reaching 9400 yuan / ton, reaching an all-time high, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. As the downstream is insensitive to price increases and cost transmission is smooth, we expect the industry to improve in coordination, and monosodium glutamate is expected to continue.

Driven by the cost and the warming of breeding demand, the price of feed amino acids has risen rapidly, and the clearing of the industry will continue. The stock of pigs and fertile sows in January is + 35% and + 35% compared with the same period last year. We expect the number of live pigs to increase for a long time in 2021, which will lead to a return of feed amino acid demand. At the same time, the epidemic prevention and control of large-scale breeding enterprises is better than that of small and medium-sized retail investors. The improvement of the scale of the breeding industry has led to an upward permeability of feed amino acids. The current market price of threonine / lysine is 14550 gamma 12300 yuan / ton, up 87% and 78% over the same period last year, reaching an all-time high of nearly five years. Affected by last year's epidemic and African classical swine fever, some small and medium-sized enterprises are below the break-even line, which is difficult to sustain, speed up the clearance of production capacity, highlight the advantages of leading enterprises, and we expect high product prices to continue.

What is the biggest difference between us and the market? With the advent of the turning point in the industry, the clearing of production capacity is accelerated, and the resilience of leading enterprises under the impact of the epidemic is highlighted, which is expected to benefit significantly.

Potential catalyst: product prices continue to rise, the first half of the performance is expected to exceed expectations.

Profit forecast and valuation

We maintain a profit forecast of 1.145 billion yuan in 2021 and introduce a profit forecast of 1.322 billion yuan in 2022. Due to the uptick in product prices, we have upgraded the company to outperform industry and raised the target price by 12.5% to HK $3.60. The current stock price corresponds to 5.5 times Pmax E in 2021 and 6.86.0 times in 2022, including 24.6% upside space.

Risk

The price of raw materials continued to rise rapidly, the negative impact of the epidemic continued, and the valuation center moved downward.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

阜丰集团(00546.HK)：味精、饲用氨基酸等多产品价格景气上行 供需格局持续改善

Fufeng Group (00546.HK): Prices for various products such as monosodium glutamate and feed amino acids are rising, and the supply and demand pattern continues to improve

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阜丰集团(00546.HK)：味精、饲用氨基酸等多产品价格景气上行供需格局持续改善