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思考乐教育(1769.HK)思考乐教育首次报告:全国扩张步伐初探 成长性突出

Thinking Music Education (1769.HK) Thinking Music Education's First Report: The Pace of National Expansion First Exploring Growth Is Outstanding

東方證券 ·  Feb 5, 2021 00:00

Core viewpoints

Outstanding growth, rapid expansion since listing. Thinking music education was established in Shenzhen. In the process of development in the past eight years, thinking Music Education pays attention to talent motivation and product research and development, and has rapidly grown into a dark horse of K12 education in South China. By the annual report of 2019, the company had achieved an income of 710 million, a three-year compound growth rate of 60.9%, a student attendance of 296000, and a three-year compound growth rate of 45%. It has established a network layout covering the whole territory of the Great Bay area and gradually infiltrated into Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other national key cities.

Teaching, service and team motivation help the company to stabilize its output. The teaching and research system is solid, with the research institute as the core to establish a teaching and research team of 200 + people. The teaching method of "366" is promoted, and the content of the teaching material insists on the combination of originality and localization, which effectively ensures the teaching quality of the company. Attach importance to curriculum services, think happy to implement the campus system, teachers are fixed in the same campus, students at the end of the course or after school, enjoy free guidance from teachers at the teaching point, high-quality service creates a reputation, and the rate of sales expenses is kept below 5% all the year round. Talent incentive sharing growth, the company adopts the partnership mechanism between teachers and principals, teachers and principals' income reaches a certain threshold to get a share, a strong incentive mechanism ensures the stability of the team, and the turnover rate of mature teachers is less than 4%.

Standardized marketing actions cooperate with famous teachers to help the company sink quickly. Since listing, the company has accelerated its expansion inside and outside the province, and Sianle has officially taken root in Zhuhai, Ningbo, Suzhou, Maoming and Heyuan in November 2020. it is estimated that the number of outlets will reach 150 and the layout of 12 cities by the end of 2020. Entering the new city with the mature mode of low-cost class operation, with the help of a team of high-quality teachers, the new network represented by Guangzhou is progressing smoothly, and the enrollment work in Suzhou and Ningbo is also advancing steadily.

Financial forecasts and investment suggestions

The company has strong team cohesion and standardized output of service marketing. We estimate that the revenue of the company 20-22e is 749, 10.90 and 1.493 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning to the mother is 0.50, 1.04 and 1.37 million respectively, and the adjusted net profit is 1.37 million. We select K12 teaching and training comparable companies New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, OneSmart International Education Group Ltd, Doushen Education and Excellence Education, with an adjusted average 21PE of 48.5x, a valuation of HK $7.946 billion and a target price of HK $14.30 Give a "buy" rating.

Risk hint

The expansion of the network is not as expected, the increase in the unit price of customers is not as expected, the offline operation of the epidemic is more difficult, and the control of the cost side is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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