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富途資訊 ·  Dec 18, 2020 17:02

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This article is compiled from Guoyuan Securities "2021"Annual photovoltaic industry strategy: the curtain of energy revolution is raised, photovoltaic acceleration uplink ", Guojin Securities" photovoltaic growth space and leading steady-state status are recognized by long-term capital "

Summary:Photovoltaic and new energy sectors rose sharply today, and the news put forward 2060 yuan with China.The annual carbon neutralization has something to do with the target, in addition, the weekend Hillhouse with 158100 million yuan transferred to Longji 6%The shares have also aroused great concern in the market.

Analyzing the logical changes in the photovoltaic industry since the beginning of this year, "Photovoltaic ushered in an era of parity and carbon neutralization has become a global consensus" will undoubtedly accelerate the growth of global photovoltaic installations. The agency expects 2021-2025.The global installed capacity reaches 168/218/273/341/410GW respectively.. From the cycle to the growth, will drive the photovoltaic plate valuation.

Looking forward to 2021Investment opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, Guoyuan Securities comprehensive industry growth, supply and demand pattern and technology development trend, recommend all links of the industrial chain leader: sunshine Power supply, Longji shares, Follett, Tongwei shares, Jiejia Weichuang, computer numerical Control, Jinlang Technology.

First, photovoltaic parity leads the energy revolution, and there is a lot of room for the industry.

Photovoltaic points ushered in the era of parity driven this round of photovoltaic plate valuation increased significantly.

According to IRENA's report on the cost of Renewable Energy Power Generation in 2019, the LCOE cost of photovoltaic power stations in 2019 has dropped to US $0.068 / kWh, close to US $0.066 / kWh for fossil fuel power generation, and the world has gradually entered an era of parity.IRENA also predicts that electricity costs will be another 42 per cent lower in 2021 than in 2019.

Domestically, the current electricity price of unsubsidized photovoltaic projects in Qinghai is the local hydropower price-0.227 yuan / kWh, equivalent to 3.25 cents / kWh (vs provinces and regions across the country thermal power grid benchmarking price 0.25-0.45 yuan / KWh).

Overseas electricity prices are also less than 2 cents / kWh. On April 28, 2020, in the tender for a 2GW photovoltaic power station in Abu Dhabi, the consortium of France EDF and China Jingke Electric Power invested 1.35 cents / kWh in kilowatt-hour cost.

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On the one hand, the cost continues to reduce, while the permeability of photovoltaic power generation is still very low. Guoyuan Securities predicts that photovoltaic will become the mainstream source of power generation in the future, and there is huge room for growth.

In 2019, the global installed 118GW will be newly added, and the global GW market will reach 16.According toIEA,2019Photovoltaic accounted for 3.02% in China in, which is 3% below the global averageQuite, there is a lot of room for growth. Bloomberg BNEF predicts that 62% of the world's energy structure will come from renewable energy in 2050, 48% of which will be wind and solar.

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Second, from cycle to growth, the photovoltaic industry accelerates its upward trend.

Guoyuan Securities stressed that as carbon reduction has become a global consensus, the photovoltaic industry is bound to accelerate upward.

As shown in the picture below, China, Europe, Japan and South Korea have issued carbon reduction targets and plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050-2060. Biden won the presidential election in the United States and plans to invest $400 billion in clean energy over the next decade.

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According to the plans of the major economies, we can get the following data:

1) ChinaAssuming that non-fossil energy consumption accounts for 20% in 2025, of which photovoltaic accounts for more than 50%, the corresponding annual installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 79-120GW.

2(EuropeAssume that the share of renewable energy consumption will reach 38% in 2030, corresponding to 59-86GW per year of new photovoltaic installations

3) U.S.Biden won the election and plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, corresponding to an average annual installation of 42GW in the next five years.

To sum up the above information, Guoyuan Securities estimates that 2020Global installed 125GW, of which the domestic 35GW, overseas 90GW;2021-2025The global installed capacity reaches 168/218/273/341/410GW respectively.The installed machines in China reached 47/64/85/110/143GW respectively.The industry installation will be accelerated upstream.

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Third, how to seize the opportunity of photovoltaic investment: pay attention to 2021The link of tight annual supply

If we analyze the logical changes in the photovoltaic industry so far this year, there is no doubt thatThe realization of affordable access to the Internet (elimination of the impact of the subsidy cycle), as well as the solidification of the leading position of each link, continue to stimulate the growth attribute of the industry (especially the growth attribute of the leader), and then drive the plate and the leader to improve the valuation.

For 2021The annual investment opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, the comprehensive industry growth rate, supply and demand pattern and technological route development trend of Guoyuan Securities recommend the leading enterprises in each link of the industrial chain:

1) Inverter: replace +New demand for two-wheel driveInverters maintain rapid growth, domestic enterprises accelerate to go to sea, and profitability continues to improveRecommend Sunshine Power supply and Jinlang Technology

2) Silicon wafer: a) Longji shares① continues to expand silicon wafer production capacity, 42GW in 2019, and plans to reach 100GW capacity by 2022, with a solid leading position and obvious cost advantages; ② extends downstream components with obvious integration advantages, and the company has become the first enterprise in history with annual shipments up to 20GW.b) computer numerical controlThe company continues to expand the production of monocrystalline silicon, with a production capacity of 13GW in 2022, breaking the monopoly pattern of the single crystal wafer market and becoming the strongest third-party wafer enterprise besides Longji and Central

3) the supply is tightThe supply of silicon and photovoltaic glass will continue to be tight in 2021, and the price is expected to remain high.Recommend Tongwei shares and Fleet.

4Heterojunction batteryThe heterojunction industry chain is gradually mature and will become the mainstream battery route in the future, which will benefit from the certainty of heterojunction equipment. Jijiawei Chuang, the leader of heterojunction equipment, is recommended.

5) glue filmThe one-super and multi-strong structure of the film is stable, coinciding with the product upgrading period, and the leading profitability continues to improve.Recommended leader, Foster.

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