「新国标」落地不仅为行业带来超标车替换需求，生产门槛提高、消费心智成熟也催化尾部产能出清，行业格局将持续集中。国内电踏车市场目前仍未打开，但随着多项电助力自行车标准立项、产业链发力国内市场促进成本下降，国内电踏车市场预计将迎来突破。东南亚摩托车年销量近4000万，「油换电」加速背景下，RCEP的签订削减了向主要东南亚国家出口两轮车关税，利好国内摩托车及电摩生产企业出口。
▍头部公司增速显著高于整体，行业格局加速集中。
2020年1-9月国内电动车累计产量同比增长27.3%：一方面「新国标」政策刺激部分地区超标车换购、卫生事件及共享电单车等新需求拉动了总量提升;另一方面生产企业门槛提高，也促进了品牌认知度的提升、使得行业加速集中，我们预计2020年CR3将超过50%。伴随行业总量提升和大量尾部公司产能的出清，我们预计头部企业将在未来3年内继续高速增长。
▍电踏车行业标准逐步成型，有望推进国内市场扩张。
电踏车以其绿色环保、安全便捷、兼具运动健身功能的特点风靡海外市场。欧洲电踏车销量在2009-2019年间的复合增长率达到23.3%， 我们预计2020年将达到450万辆规模。相较而言，电踏车在国内的发展由于价格过高等因素而不够理想。然而，随着国内电踏车供应链的成熟化和行业内标准的逐渐健全，电踏车有望在需求驱动下迎来良好的发展。另外，考虑到电动两轮车行业的政策敏感性较高，预计电踏车在国内将率先通过共享的2B模式推广以适应政策要求并降低采购成本，在标准明确后再逐步向2C端渗透。
▍RCEP打开东南亚市场，利好摩托及电摩企业出口。
东南亚摩托车市场的渗透率极高，摩托车保有量前三的印尼、越南和泰国分别保有约6000、4500、3000万辆，2019年三国摩托车销量达649、326、172万辆。根据11月15日签订的「区域全面经济伙伴关系协定」(RCEP)，印尼和越南将调低中国出口两轮车关税。向印尼出口摩托车关税部分将于明年降至零税率，部分将在15年内匀速降至零税率;向越南出口摩托车的关税大部分将在20年内匀速降至零税率。我们预计关税降低将促进国内摩托及电摩生产企业响应东南亚市场巨大需求，利好相关企业出口市场。
▍风险因素：
海外卫生事件严重恶化;海外贸易政策不稳定;主要市场需求大幅下滑。
▍投资策略：
电动两轮车行业正面临需求扩容、格局快速优化，龙头企业凭借丰富产品线、渠道精度、品牌口碑加速占领市场，重点推荐电动两轮车龙头雅迪控股(01585)、高端电动两轮车开拓者小牛电动(NIU.US)、享受电动两轮车增量业绩弹性的电机供应商八方股份;关注春风动力、钱江摩托、九号公司、新日股份。
The landing of the "new national standard" not only brings demand for replacement of over-standard cars for the industry, but also catalyzes the clearing of tail production capacity by raising the production threshold and mature consumption, and the industry pattern will continue to be concentrated. At present, the domestic electric bicycle market has not been opened, but with the establishment of a number of electric bicycle standards and the industrial chain to promote the domestic market to reduce costs, the domestic electric bicycle market is expected to usher in a breakthrough. The annual sales of motorcycles in Southeast Asia are nearly 40 million. Against the background of the acceleration of "changing oil for electricity", the signing of RCEP has reduced tariffs on the export of two-wheeled vehicles to major Southeast Asian countries, which is beneficial to the exports of domestic motorcycle and electric motorcycle manufacturers.
The growth rate of ▍ head company is significantly higher than that of the whole, and the industry pattern is accelerated and concentrated.
From January to September 2020, the cumulative output of domestic electric vehicles increased by 27.3% compared with the same period last year: on the one hand, the "new national standard" policy stimulated the purchase of over-standard cars in some areas, sanitary events and shared motorcycles and other new demand led to an increase in the total volume; on the other hand, the raising of the threshold for production enterprises also promoted the promotion of brand awareness and accelerated the concentration of the industry. We expect CR3 to exceed 50% in 2020. With the increase in the total amount of the industry and the clearance of a large number of tail companies, we expect the head enterprises to continue to grow at a high speed in the next three years.
▍ electric bicycle industry standard is gradually taking shape, which is expected to promote the expansion of the domestic market.
Electric bikes are popular in overseas markets because of their green environmental protection, safety and convenience, and sports and fitness functions. Sales of electric bikes in Europe grew at a compound rate of 23.3% between 2009 and 2019, and we expect to reach 4.5 million in 2020. Comparatively speaking, the development of electric bikes in China is not ideal because of the high price and other factors. However, with the maturity of domestic e-bike supply chain and the gradual improvement of industry standards, e-bike is expected to usher in a good development driven by demand. In addition, considering the high policy sensitivity of the electric two-wheeler industry, it is expected that the electric bicycle will take the lead in promoting the shared 2B model in China to meet the policy requirements and reduce the procurement cost, and then gradually infiltrate to the 2C side after the standard is clear.
▍ RCEP opens the Southeast Asian market, benefiting the export of motorcycle and electric motorcycle enterprises.
The penetration rate of the motorcycle market in Southeast Asia is extremely high. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, which have the top three motorcycles, have about 6000, 4500 and 30 million motorcycles respectively. In 2019, the motorcycle sales in the three countries reached 649,326 and 1.72 million respectively. Indonesia and Vietnam will lower tariffs on Chinese exports of two-wheeled vehicles according to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed on November 15. Tariffs on motorcycle exports to Indonesia will be reduced to zero next year, some will be reduced to zero within 15 years, and most of the tariffs on motorcycle exports to Vietnam will be reduced to zero within 20 years. We expect that the tariff reduction will promote domestic motorcycle and electric motorcycle manufacturers to respond to the huge demand in the Southeast Asian market and benefit the export market of related enterprises.
▍ risk factors:
Overseas health incidents have deteriorated seriously; overseas trade policies are unstable; and demand in major markets has fallen sharply.
▍ investment strategy:
The electric two-wheeler industry is facing demand expansion and rapid pattern optimization. Leading enterprises accelerate to occupy the market by virtue of rich product lines, channel accuracy and brand reputation, with emphasis on recommending electric two-wheeler Yadi Holdings (01585), high-end electric two-wheeled pioneer Niu Technologies (NIU.US), and motor supplier Bafang shares that enjoy the incremental performance flexibility of electric two-wheelers. Pay attention to Chunfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, No. 9 Company, Xinri shares.
